Lars Anderson should provide quality depth for the Toronto Blue Jays as he works to finally establish himself in the majors. (J. Meric/Getty Images)

Lars Anderson is the newest member of the Toronto Blue Jays organization, arriving on a waiver claim in late February. He’s a former top prospect who’s stalled out in the upper minors. But with David Cooper injured and Adam Lind’s effectiveness hardly guaranteed, there’s a chance Anderson could work his way back to the bigs this year. He’s still only 25.

PROFILE

Lars Anderson was selected by the Boston Red Sox in the 18^th round, 553^rd overall, of the 2006 amateur draft out of Jesuit High School in Carmichael, California. He’d played for the U.S. junior national team and was considered an early round talent. But most teams passed on him due to signability concerns stemming from an early commitment to the University of California (Berkeley). Under Theo Epstein’s ambitious draft management, the Red Sox managed to get Anderson under contract for sandwich-round money ($825,000), augmenting a successful class that also yielded Daniel Bard, Justin Masterson and Josh Reddick.

Anderson began his pro career the following season with the full-season Greenville Drive of the South Atlantic League. He attacked fastballs well and showed precocious pitch recognition skills as well as excellent patience. He played 124 games, hitting .288/.385/.443 with an impressive 35 doubles, 10 home runs, 69 RBI and a striking 112/71 SO/BB ratio. He was still a teenager but one demonstrating skills well beyond his years. He also received a brief taste of high-A with the California League’s Lancaster JetHawks and tore the cover off the ball (.343/.489/.486) in the circuit’s cushy hitting environs. He was surging up prospect charts and looked to be worth every penny of his draft bonus.

He began 2008 back in Lancaster but the league couldn’t hold him for long. In 77 games, he slugged .317/.408/.513 with 19 doubles and 13 home runs, driving in 50 and registering a strong 64/46 SO/BB. Promoted to the Eastern League’s Portland Sea Dogs in July, Anderson obliterated his first taste of AA, swatting .316/.436/.526 with 13 doubles, 5 home runs, 30 RBI and incredible patience (43/29 SO/BB) over a 41-game trial. All told, he’d put up a .317/.417/.517 slash line with 32 doubles and 18 home runs and extraordinary control (107/75 SO/BB) for a developing power bat. He reached base in 36 of his 41 AA games, producing a .926 OPS at the level as a 20-year old. His strikeout rate (26.4%) rose after the promotion but so, too, did his walks (17.8%). It looked like he was on the fast-track to stardom. The only real caveat in his profile lurked in his unbelievable BABIPs. He’d registered crazy numbers in the category at every stop of his career – but his .430 AA mark was never going to hold up over a full season. Still, Anderson had done more than enough to earn Red Sox Minor League Offensive Player of the Year honours and clearly rated as one of the truly elite prospects in baseball. His luck only looked like something to keep an eye on.

Boston hoped Anderson could build upon his AA success by spending all of 2009 back in Portland and he got off to a solid, if not spectacular, start as the league adjusted to him. But in the second half, Anderson regressed to an almost unbelievable level, hitting just .154 with one home run and 9 RBI over his last 40 games. It was an unconscionable collapse. Many wondered if he was playing hurt and, indeed, his season ended early due to back soreness and hamstring problems. But were they the sole cause of such prolonged misery? In 119 total games, Anderson was left with a line of just .233/.328/.345, 23 doubles, 9 home runs, 51 RBI and a souring 114/63 SO/BB rate. His line drive rate sunk from 19.9% to just 13%. And, indeed, his luck completely ran out, sending his BABIP plunging from .430 to a more credible .292. Had playing hurt cost him half a season of development time? Or did his first real bout of failure send him crumbling under expectations that he was supposed to be the Red Sox first baseman of the future? With Anthony Rizzo climbing quickly behind him, Anderson now faced an uncertain path.

Shaken by his awful finish, Boston had little choice but to return Anderson to Portland in 2010. He responded like it’d never happened, hitting an extraordinary .355/.408/.677 with 5 home runs in 17 games. His health was assured, it was clear his approach was still intact and Boston quickly promoted him to the AAA Pawtucket Red Sox. There, he seemed to fall in somewhere between his two extremes, hitting .262/.340/.428 with 32 doubles, 10 home runs, 53 RBI and a mediocre 109/44 SO/BB ratio the rest of the way. On one hand, his gap strength and patience had returned to wicked effect. On the other, he was now struggling mightily against southpaws and still only hitting .262 with below average home run power. He received a late promotion to Boston, making his major league debut against the Tampa Bay Rays. But Anderson would only get into 18 games while hitting a soft .200/326/.229. More adjustments were still necessarily. He would enter 2011 at age 23 ticketed again for AAA. Still young enough to develop more power and restore his prospect standing. But old enough now that questions about his ultimate power ceiling wouldn’t go away. He’d earned a reputation as smart and hard working. But there were rumblings that he sometimes put too much pressure on himself, extending slumps when things weren’t going well. That winter, Boston traded Rizzo as part of a package for Adrian Gonzalez. Anderson now appeared blocked and could only prepare for a return engagement in the International League awaiting an opportunity, most likely in another organization.

The Red Sox had little choice but to send him back to the International League and hope for the best. Instead, Anderson gave them more of the same. He played 93 games, hitting .259/.359/.415 with 22 doubles, 9 HRs, 52 RBI and a 89/56 SO/BB. Injuries to Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury helped him back to the show for a week in April. But when Kevin Youkilis got hurt in May, Will Middlebrooks was up and Anderson was history. At the deadline, he was traded to the Cleveland Indians for right-handed knuckleballer Steven Wright, capping a disappointing end to Anderson’s Red Sox career. He couldn’t break the Cleveland lineup, either, even with injuries and ineffectiveness sidelining Matt LaPorta and Travis Hafner. Instead, they rolled with Casey Kotchman’s flailing ghost all the way to a 68-win season. Anderson was stuck manning first in AAA for the Columbus Clippers – and he was awful, hitting a meagre .196/.319/.286 with 5 doubles, no home runs and a 18/9 SO/BB in 18 games. There were now real doubts about whether he’d ever be able to establish himself as a major league regular. In December, he was sent packing again as part of a three-team trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks and Cincinnati Reds featuring Trevor Bauer and Shin-Soo Choo. Anderson looked like little more than a depth piece and, by February, found himself on waivers, then claimed by the Chicago White Sox. His time as a south-sider lasted only three weeks before they waived him, too. In need of first base depth and sensing a buy-low opportunity, the Blue Jays claimed Anderson and invited him to spring training.

OUTLOOK

For all the dreams that Lars Anderson may one day revive his stagnating career, at this point, it appears this is what he is. A guy very much like David Cooper. In Toronto, that may actually make Anderson useful to have around. This winter, Toronto lost Mike McDade to Cleveland. Then Cooper was unable to report to camp because of a back injury that now threatens to derail his season. That leaves the Blue Jays awfully thin at first base in the upper minors. Given Adam Lind is the incumbent DH, depth may prove to be a valuable commodity. Anderson’s spot on the 40-man is hardly secure. And he’ll slot in behind Anthony Gose, Moises Sierra and Josh Thole on the list of probable call-ups biding their time in Buffalo. But if Lind’s conditioning or performance falters and Anderson gets off to a good start, we could see him in Toronto this summer.

It’s interesting that Anderson is essentially stepping into Cooper’s role on this Blue Jays team. After Anderson signed in Boston, Cooper ended up transferring to the University of California and starring there before being drafted by Toronto. Now, Anderson is part insurance plan, part cautionary tale about overvaluing prospect assets.

If he can regain the strike zone, he may end up putting together a decent season in the next few years. But to do it, he’ll need a major league opportunity he won’t likely find in Toronto.

STAT SHEET

Lars Anderson, 1B
09/25/87            Bats: L             Throws: L        HT: 6-4          WT: 215
Oakland, California                    High School: Jesuit (Sacramento, CA)
Drafted by Boston in the 18^th round, 553^rd overall, of the 2006 MLB Amateur Draft.
Acquired: Selected off waivers from the Chicago White Sox on February 25, 2013
Contract Status: Not eligible for arbitration before 2016.
Salary: $482,000
Service Time: 0.053

Expect Emilio Bonifacio to inject the Blue Jays offense with speed, dynamism and versatility in 2013. (Gregory Bull/Associated Press)

Less may be known about Emilio Bonifacio than the other members of the Toronto-bound Marlin Five. But he is a fascinating player. In Toronto, he may be arriving in an ideal environment to exploit his tools. The only questions involve health and opportunity. Let’s look at what kind of player Bonifacio is and how he’ll be deployed.

PROFILE

The Arizona Diamondbacks signed Emilio Bonifacio as an amateur free agent at the end of 2001. He stayed in his native Dominican in 2002, playing in the summer league for the DSL Diamondbacks. He came stateside in 2003 and debuted with the Missoula Osprey of the Pioneer League. It was a team oozing with raw talent, also featuring Carlos Gonzalez and Miguel Montero. But Bonifacio was only 18 and it showed. He hit just .199/.298/.219 in 54 games, showing great speed and a little patience. But he was badly overmatched. Playing exclusively second base he made 11 errors and showing average instincts.

Nonetheless, Arizona promoted him to the full-season South Bend Silver Hawks in 2004. Bonifacio overcame his rookie struggles, improving enough to stick in South Bend the whole season. He played 120 games and hit .260/.306/.319 with 40 stolen bases and a 122/25 SO/BB ratio. Pitchers didn’t hesitate to knock the bat out of his hands and his approach was clearly very raw. But Bonifacio was one of the youngest players in the league and was using his speed to get on more. His season was a quiet success.

But the chance to consolidate his gains couldn’t hurt. Arizona returned Bonifacio to the Midwest League in 2005 and he spent another full season with the team. Though his surface numbers were similar, he changed his game significantly at the plate. In 127 games, he hit .270/.341/.330 with 22 extra-base hits, a system-leading 55 steals and a dramatically-improved 90/56 SO/BB rate. His success on balls in play was purely driven by his blazing speed and though he would need to add strength as he moved up, it was heartening to see him utilize his greater tool to such effect.

In 2006, Arizona promoted Bonifacio to the high-A Lancaster JetHawks in the hitter-friendly California League. He flourished. In 130 games, he hit .321/.375/.449 with 35 doubles, 7 triples, 7 home runs and a 104/44 SO/BB ratio. He also ran wild under the tutelage of former speedster Brett Butler, swiping 61 bases in 75 tries. He led the league in steals and was named a California League All-Star. He continued to play exclusively at the keystone but piled up his third-consecutive 20+ error season. He was capable at second but many wondered if he’d eventually be better suited for super-utility work. He was still just 21 and held no shortage of intrigue. The question was whether his bat would stand up in AA.

He was given the chance to prove it in 2007, advancing to the Mobile BayBears of the Southern League. He put up a decent line overall, hitting .285/.333/.352 with 28 XBH, 41 stolen bases and a 105/38 SO/BB in 132 games, now splitting his time between second and shortstop. He again led the league and system in steals. But he’d also crossed the century mark for strikeouts, a no-no for speedsters with groundball tendencies. Walking more – or even putting the ball in play – would invariably help his cause. Still, Arizona rewarded his quality campaign with a late-season call-up, utilizing his speed and versatility down the stretch. He played in just 11 games but got his first hit off Tim Lincecum and put up a .217/.333/.261 line. Up on the big club, Orlando Hudson, Stephen Drew and Mark Reynolds were all reasonably young and established. So Bonifacio would have to earn his roster spot as a reserve. Probably using some time at AAA to refine all aspects of his game.

That’s where Bonifacio began 2008 as a 23-year old with the Tucson Sidewinders of the Pacific Coast League. The hard infields and elevated locales were a perfect match for his skills and Bonifacio hit .302/.348/.387 in 85 games. He managed a tolerable 64/27 SO/BB rate and chipped in 17 steals. The Diamondbacks recalled him in July to help replace the injured Eric Byrnes but the Snakes only started Bonifacio twice in three weeks and he struggled: .167/.167/.250. Following a 90-win season, Arizona sat two games below .500 a week before the trade deadline and decided to trade Bonifacio to the Washington Nationals for reliever Jon Rauch.

The Nationals started Bonifacio in AAA with the Columbus Clippers of the International League. But he didn’t give them the chance to keep him there long, hitting .452/.500/.516. The Nationals quickly released Felipe Lopez at the start of August, promptly installing Bonifacio at the top of their order as a second baseman. Washington’s lineup was as ugly as you’ll see. And Bonifacio held the job until season’s end, playing 41 games and hitting .248/.305/.344. He managed 5 triples but only 6 steals and just a 41/14 SO/BB rate. (Nats fans, there is a silver lining: all those bad lineups would yield a return of Stephen Strasburg the following April). Bonifacio spent his winter winning the Caribbean World Series with Tigres de Licey and appeared to have the inside track on Washington’s keystone entering 2009. But the Nationals were keen to make any upgrades available to them – and forgive me if you’ve heard this before – the Florida Marlins were shedding payroll. The result sent Bonifacio to south beach, with two prospects, for pitcher Scott Olsen and slugging outfielder Josh Willingham. Bonifacio had now been traded twice in just four months and it was unclear what role he would play on an emerging young Marlins team featuring the cheap, controllable talents of Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez in the middle of the diamond.

Bonifacio helped make the Marlins’ decision for them with a strong spring and an unforgettable Opening Day. He led off against his old Nationals teammates, playing third base, and went 4 for 5 with his first major league home run – an inside the park job, no less – and three stolen bases. Bonifacio was electric. And the Marlins looked like they had their future table-setter. He had 14 hits in the season’s first five games and seemed ready to take the league by storm, even if his defense at third was sub par.

Of course, the league eventually caught up to Bonifacio and although he spent the entire season in the majors, much of it was forgettable after opening week. All told, he hit .252/.303/.308 with just 18 XBH – including that lone home run – plus 21 steals and a 95/34 SO/BB ratio. He also showed a dreadful split, irritating lefties to no end (.315/.340/.364) but flailing badly against right-handers (.218/.284/.275). His playing time ultimately diminished in the second half along with his OPS (.628 vs. .560). The Marlins were in the hunt for the playoffs and their acquisition of Nick Johnson from Washington at the deadline shifted Jorge Cantu from first to third base, pushing Bonifacio into a reserve role. The playoffs never happened. Now, entering 2010, Bonifacio could only hope to make his mark as a reserve – but he had to make the team first.

He did, barely, and seldom got onto the field in two weeks before being dispatched to the AAA New Orleans Zephyrs. There, Bonifacio got back to his usual game, hitting for a passable average and getting on a bit. But he wasn’t driving the ball well or running enough to push those ahead of him. Florida recalled him in June after designating Mike Lamb for assignment. But he was firmly stuck behind Uggla and Ramirez, mostly serving as a pinch-runner. When he again saw regular duty in the fall, nothing about his numbers suggested it should continue. In 73 games, he hit .261/.320/.328 with just 9 extra-base hits and a 74 OPS+. He was useful for his speed and versatility, swiping 12 bags without getting caught, while filling in at 6 positions (2B,SS,3B,LF,CF,RF). Of course, he was also cheap. Giving the Marlins a prototypical super sub to call on in the late innings.

That’s how he started 2011 but it wasn’t long until injuries opened the door for more playing time and Bonifacio seized on it with an exhilarating career season. He played a career-high 152 games, swatting 26 doubles, 7 triples, 5 (!) home runs and chipping in 36 RBI on his way to a striking .296/.360./393 line, a 107 OPS+ and a 26-game hitting streak on his way to earning National League Player of the Month honours in July. He also nicked 40 bases against just 11 times caught, finishing as the NL’s second-best thief behind Michael Bourn. Bonifacio did all this while again filling in at those same six positions, logging significant time in left, centre, third and short. He still struck out a lot (129 times) for a leadoff man, but his walk rate spiked, too (8.5%). He still showed vastly better results against southpaws (.333/.407/.456) but raised his line against righties enough (.286/.347/.377) to justify play in all situations. Significantly, he also stayed healthy while others around him fell off. His versatility remained a huge asset but his bat now made him worth slotting in regularly. Bonifacio was just entering his age 27 season and appeared primed to begin his prime as a dynamic weapon in the Florida attack.

Miami’s offseason overhaul left no room for Bonifacio in the infield but he remained a fit in centre and started there Opening Day batting between Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez. Pretty desirable real estate. Through seven weeks, Bonifacio was reaching base (.351) and had a clean 20-for-20 stolen base count. But then he jammed his thumb nabbing second and landed on the disabled list for the first time in his career. The injury would cost him 46 games and later become re-aggravated in August. A week after finally returning, he sprained his right knee and was shut down for the season. His splits show a clear tale of two seasons: the healthy first half (.268/.351/.315) and the injury-ravaged summer (.242/.294/.316). He still managed 30 steals against only 3 time caught. And, for the first time in his career, his platoon splits were reversed (.506 OPS vs. LHP, .726 OPS vs. RHP). It was obviously a campaign marred by poor health. Incredibly, his speed still made him valuable even when his other tools were ravaged.

In November, he arrived in Toronto as perhaps the least heralded member of the Marlin Five. But a promising, versatile talent entering his age 27 season just one year removed from a breakout.

OUTLOOK

Though his name value pales in comparison to the headliners arriving in Toronto, Bonifacio possesses a great deal of value. It’s really hard not to be excited about what he brings to the table. World-class speed. A refined aggression on the basepaths that makes him one of the game’s most effective thieves. Incredible versatility. And functional switch-hitting, particularly against southpaws. As he enters what should be the prime of his career, he is under team control for two full seasons. He’s being given the opportunity to compete for the team’s second base job with Maicer Izturis (a switch-hitter who profiles better against righties) and should be very effective on Rogers Centre’s artificial surface as well as rolling over the lineup, pressure-free from the ninth position.

For Bonifacio, it’s practically a dream scenario. Expect him to become an instant fan favourite. Even if he doesn’t win a starting role outright, it’s hard to imagine Brett Lawrie and Jose Reyes playing 162 games. So I expect we’ll see long stretches with Bonifacio in the starting nine, particularly with Rajai Davis still on hand to serve as the team’s late-inning base-stealing ace. I anticipate Bonifacio will endure a few bumps and bruises. Errors in the field are to be expected, too. But don’t be surprised if he becomes a sparkplug extraordinaire and plays 120+ games with 35 steals and a .270/.339/.355 line.

Come playoff time, this is a guy Blue Jays’ fans will be glad to have on the bench.

STAT SHEET

Emilio Bonifacio, IF/OF
04/23/85            Bats: S             Throws: R       HT: 5-11        WT: 205
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
Signed: By the Arizona Diamondbacks as an amateur free agent December 27, 2001
Acquired: Trade with Miami Marlins on November 19, 2012
Contract Status: Third-time arbitration eligible in 2014. Eligible for free agency in 2015
Salary: $2,600,000
Service Time: 4.006

The New York Times has spoken.

So, too, have Jayson Stark, Rob Neyer, David Schoenfield, Joe Posnanski and countless others. We can all agree it’s going to be a long, quiet summer in Cooperstown, New York.

I reacted to the shutout thrown by the Baseball Writers of America in this year’s Hall of Fame voting with a mixture of resignation and sadness. Were none of the players of my youth worthy of a place in the museum of the sport I love? Of course they were. Call it what you will. I’ve heard it dubbed ‘deferral.’ A strong ‘reaction.’ A ‘stand.’

I call it ignorance. A decision by many who observed, studied, and reported on things that happened in an era of baseball where revenues, player salaries and fan interest grew exponentially to shun the very individuals who lifted the game. I do not condone or agree with many of the personal choices made by some during this time. But, like it or not, it happened. The sooner we can at some rough consensus around that obvious fact, the better.

Obviously, TheRichardandMartin does not have a place within the BBWAA nor a vote for the Hall of Fame. But, if we did, here’s what our ballot would look like:

1. Jeff Bagwell

The whole package. One of the greatest first basemen ever. And one of the most unique – both on the field and the stat sheet. The crazy stance; Bagwell, perched atop an invisible 3-foot stool, with his total concentration and slight, hypnotic bat waggle. He hit 30 home runs nine times. 449 total. He also stole 202 bases. Twice more than 30 in one season. That’s two 40/30 seasons – from a first baseman. He was never especially fleet of foot but earned a reputation as an incredible baserunner. Walked more than he struck out 4 times. Anf if he hadn’t broken his left hand in three consecutive seasons (1993, 1994, 1995), his numbers would be even greater. Despite this, he managed one of the best offensive seasons of all-time in 1994, hitting .368/.451/.750 with 39 home runs and 116 RBI – in 110 games. He owns a pile of hardware: an MVP (and one runner-up), a Gold Glove, a Rookie of the Year. 4 All-Star games. Bagwell got 59.6% of the vote this year. His day will come. But he belongs now.

A personal note: he was hands down my favourite player to watch as a kid. And in the early 90s – in southwestern Ontario – finding out-of-market Astros games was no easy feat.
He made it worth the effort every time.

2. Craig Biggio

He, too, should be a lock. In a perfect world, he’d enter the Hall with Bagwell to his left, the same way they spent so many Houston summers. Hopefully in 2014. Biggio is the only player to ever play 50 games at catcher, second base and centre field. He played 250 at each.

2850 games – all with the Astros. 3060 hits. 668 doubles. 291 home runs. 414 stolen bases. 4 Gold Gloves. 7 All Star selections. Hit by 285 pitches (good for second all-time – no other active player is even close), including 34 times in 1997 while he was also hitting .309/.415/.501 with 67 extra-base hits and 47 stolen bases. That will never happen again. Also won the silver slugger as a catcher and second baseman. Durable as the flu. Played 160 games five times. 150 eleven times. His case compares favourably to Robin Yount’s – a no-doubt, first-ballot Hall guy. Or, not.

3. Mike Piazza

The greatest offensive catcher in history. And depending upon how you value catcher defense, he has an argument as one of the three best of all-time. A career .308 hitter. With a career .377 on-base. He hit 427 home runs while never striking out more than 93 times. Finished with a 143 OPS+. He played in 12 All-Star games. Won 10 Silver Sluggers. The Rookie of the Year. Twice he was the runner-up for MVP (with four top five finishes). Even though his glove and arm were average or worse, his bat played behind the plate for a long time – 1630 games. And, of course, his legend began as a 62nd round draft pick – 1390th overall in a year where 1433 players were picked – as a favour to his father by Dodgers manager Tommy Lasorda.

And he makes up one half of one of the great World Series confrontations of all time.

4. Roger Clemens

I never truly enjoyed watching Roger Clemens pitch. I marvelled at what he could do in his 20s, 30s and 40s but never really savoured it. His personality precluded that – even when I was a 12-year old Blue Jays fan. More recently, his bulldog tenacity has been on display as he’s fought to clear his name. Many of us have observed that fight with cynicism. But today I find myself hoping that Clemens will now put on a Houston Astros uniform this summer and, in the process, reboot his Hall of Fame eligibility. Give everyone another 5 years to negotiate this mess and see his achievements with fresh eyes.

Because what’s happening right now is insane. Keeping Clemens out of the Hall of Fame is like keeping the T-Rex out of a natural history museum. It doesn’t matter if the other dinosaurs don’t like him. He belongs.

354 wins. 4672 strikeouts.  118 complete games. 46 shutouts. Won 20 four times.  Struck out the third-highest number of batters in history. Led his league in strikeouts 5 times. Twice k’d more than 290 in a season. Soared over 200 twelve 12 times. Dominated at 22. Then again at 42. Won 7 Cy Youngs and probably should’ve gotten 10. He led his league in pitching WAR in three separate years he didn’t win. Won the MVP. Excellent numbers in the World Series. Pitched in 6 of them. Won twice. 11 All-Star games. But his other numbers loom larger.

The 6 felony counts and one federal grand jury. Who inconveniently found him not guilty.

5. Barry Bonds

Unequivocably guilty in the court of public opinion. Also convicted for obstructing justice and sentenced to 30 days house arrest, pending an appeal. Carried some of the coldest shoulders in modern baseball history. Would not make the Hall of Nice Guys. Did he walk away from kids seeking a fleeting moment? Did he ever do anything for someone other than himself? Did he add impurity to the game?

We know the answers to these questions. But we must also demand another, less pleasant, ask of ourselves: Does it matter?

He holds the single season home run record. He holds the career home run record. What he did happened. Baseball did nothing to stop anything Barry Bonds did from happening. It knew who he was. And when it finally decided he wasn’t worth the trouble, his career was prematurely finished. He was blackballed. And did little to fight that. But he is not Lance Armstrong. His records stand. All of his incredible statistics remain intact. And there are no asterisks on the books. His reputation will never be redeemed.

Indeed, each voter must decide individually. But I cannot look past the numbers. 7 MVPs. 8 Gold Gloves. 762 home runs. 2558 walks. 688 of them intentional. (Buck Showalter used to walk him with the bases loaded). 514 stolen bases. The .298/.444/.607 season. The 182 OPS+. The 2227 runs. The 5976 total bases. Career numbers, all. Single season? 73 home runs. 232 walks. 52 steals. Career highs of ..370/.609/.863 and 1.422. A 268 OPS+. I could not withhold a vote for that.

6. Tim Raines

The second-best leadoff hitter of his time. If it weren’t for Rickey Henderson, he’d stand alone. Early in his candidacy, his vote totals suffered because Raines spent many of his best years in siberian Montreal. Now, he serves as a beautiful example of what time can do to further mass understanding. He is Tony Gwynn with better base-stealing skills:

Which player would you rather have? They both work for me. But Raines lacks most of Gwynn’s gaudy hardware. He earned 7 All-Star selections, yes, but just 1 batting title and 1 Silver Slugger. Of course, there are the 4 consecutive stolen base crowns and lifetime 84.7% success rate. He is one of the best pure basestealers of all time. And, boy, could he get on base.

In 6 years, he’s gone from 24.3% of the vote to 52.2%. He’ll get there yet.
He should wear an Expos cap when he does.

7. Larry Walker

A tough selection in some respects. The Canadian is mostly remembered for his spectacular all-around play for the fledgling Colorado Rockies. At his peak, Walker was one of the most complete players in the sport. An incredible, powerful hitter, disciplined and patient. He was also an excellent baserunner and played a strong right field buoyed by a cannon arm. Look at his batting line from 1997: .366/.452/.720, 208 hits, 46 doubles, 49 home runs, 130 RBI, 33 stolen bases. Of course, he won the NL MVP. Two years later, he hit .379. Throw in 3 batting titles, 5 All-Star games and 7 Gold Gloves. On the strengths of his peak seasons alone, he should be enshrined. There are just two problems with his candidacy. Health and his home park.

Walker couldn’t stay on the diamond. That summer of ’97 is the only year he played 150 games. Four times he played 100 games or fewer. And by 38, despite still being a very effective hitter (.289/.384/.502), he was finished. Plus, though it’s obviously not his fault, much of Walker’s prime was spent in the unspeakably cozy confines of pre-Humidor Coors Field. And, yes, his career splits are insane:

Home: .348/.431/.637
Road: .278/.370/.495

But he remains such a dynamic and complete player that his splits and lack of some massive counting stats (2160 hits, 383 home runs – but 913 (!) walks) don’t diminish his star for me. He’s a Hall of Famer.

8. Edgar Martinez

Martinez’s case is actually quite simple. He is one of the most clearly defined players on the ballot. Never an MVP. Rarely played the field and, when he did, he was brutal. Ran poorly and treated the bases like watering stations. Edgar Martinez was, quite simply, was one of the truest hitters to ever play the game. A savant with incredible hands and unbending disciplined. He was dangerous only in the batters box. But there he elevated his craft to a creative art.

He won two batting titles. Made 7 All-Star teams. Brought the Kingdome to its feet. Then, as a lifelong Mariner, mastered Safeco. Before they brought the fences in. Edgar Martinez swung at bad pitches as often as Pedro Martinez threw them. He, too, lost time to injury – playing in fewer than 100 games three times. And he was already a late-bloomer – his poor defense kept him from reaching the majors in earnest until he was 27. But for the next decade, all he did was hit. I do not hold Martinez’s lack of position against him. Plenty of guys in the Hall spent considerable time as designated hitters. Managers could have asked him to play first base. Martinez could have done it (poorly) but justified himself as a fielder. He didn’t. I don’t care. Like Walker, his peak was so impressive, his career .312/.418/.515 line, 309 home runs, 514 doubles and 1202/1283 SO/BB rate too hard to mute.

9. Alan Trammell

Two shortstops of Trammell’s era are already in, feeding the perception that because his offense was secondary to Cal’s and his defence a rung below Ozzie’s, Trammell was not a worthy talent. He is. His 1987 should have won him the MVP: .343/.402/.551, 28 home runs, 105 RBI in a year he struck out 47 times. He also stole 21 bases in 23 tries. But the career numbers also meet any Hall standard for shortstops. Trammell hit .300 seven times and finished with a strong .285/.352/.415 line. In the field, he won 4 Gold Gloves with a knack for beating baserunners to first by half a step. Every time.

Unfortunately, Trammell fell off after an extraordinary 1993 campaign and barely scratched through his last three, injury-riddled seasons. His legacy wasn’t helped by managing three terrible Tigers teams, including one that lost 119 games. But that’s how Trammell was. Giving his teammates and the Tigers organization everything he had and then trying to give them more. Even when he no longer could. For fun, ask any Detroit Tigers fan from the 80s if they’d have traded Trammell for Ozzie Smith. That’s not a reason to vote for Trammell. But it’s a good reminder of what he meant to those teams. His World Series performance helps, too.

10. Sammy Sosa

Looking at the 10 players I selected, Sosa was the hardest decision on the ballot. But, why? The man hit 609 home runs. Three times he hit 60 in a season. He stole 234 stolen bases. He was an MVP, 7-time All Star and 6-time Silver Slugger. He more than earned his reputation as a wild swinger with 2306 career strikeouts, enough for third all-time. He took some mean hacks. But he still managed 929 career walks, even if 154 were intentional. He finishes with a career line of .273/.344/.534. His peak lasted 13 years with the Cubs and amounts to a robust .284/.358/.569. In 1994, he helped bring baseball back. And in the great chase of Roger Maris, he was the people’s choice; the underdog everyone wanted to see keep pace with Mark McGwire. In 2003, he did everything possible to help bash the Cubs to the World Series. That was the fall of Steve Bartman. After that, Sosa could do no right on the north side. A year later, he was gone.

It’s sad to see how Sammy Sosa is remembered. As a suspect. One who got away. Thanks to one published report of a positive steroid test, never confirmed by the league, and one appearance before Congress. During which he adamantly denied steroid use. He was not named in the Mitchell Report. This year, his first on the ballot, he received 12.5% of the vote. Yes, McGwire has endured a similar lack of support for years now. With these numbers, neither will ever get in. Though Sosa only hit 26 more career home runs, he stuck around longer than McGwire and was far more durable. For me, that’s enough.

Final Thoughts

With this year’s election shutout, baseball’s writers have rendered themselves, and the Hall of Fame, irrelevent. That’s a real shame. Sure, I’ll always know about the players listed here and on other ballots. But their chances to be selected are not unlimited.

The pregnant ballot only gets bigger next year with the additions of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Mike Mussina, Frank Thomas and Jeff Kent. If I could ask that this year’s empty stand could lead to one change in the process, it would not be to end lifetime enrollment or to extend player windows. I would ask the Hall of Fame to publish writers’ ballots. Let them stand behind their selections. Of course, I’d also eliminate the arbitrary 10 vote cut-off. I could have voted for 15 players here: Curt Schilling, Fred McGriff, Kenny Lofton, Bernie Williams and Steve Finley. The first two deserve it now. The final three to keep them on the ballot for future consideration. All had stellar careers. And centre fielders are so often overlooked.

That is another great failing of this year’s wasted vote. Lofton, Williams and Finley did not secure enough votes to receive future consideration and are eliminated now for all time.

It wasn’t enough to keep everyone out of baseball’s shrine. Some voters needed to make it a double shame.

It’s been a crazy, exhilarating, optimism-inspiring week for the Toronto Blue Jays and their fans. Superlatives run dry. For my money, Andrew Stoeten summed it up best, as he so often does. In one week, Alex Anthopoulos has rewritten the fortunes of this water-treading franchise buoyed, of course, by the depths of Jeffrey Loria’s soulessness, the Miami Marlins’ panicked desperation, Paul Beeston’s careful stewardship and, indeed, Rogers’ new sense of educated daring.

Plenty of writing, speculating, pontificating, calculating and muckraking’s been done on the subject. So we won’t effort to replicate that here. This thing’s brewed for a week. Only today is it official. And, now, so is so much more. Here are our thoughts:

THE TRADE

In this landscape, it’s an unbelievable trade for Toronto. Not one without risk.

But an unbelievable real-world move.

Toronto gets Jose Reyes. A first-class, middle-of-the field star. Josh Johnson, an injury risk perhaps, but also a genuine #2 starter. Mark Buehrle, the model of consistency himself. Soft-tossing, “crafty,” bankable. Emilio Bonifacio, a utility guy who can steal 40, play 6 positions and is under team control. And the ghost of old friend John Buck, who at best is flipped for some other piece or, at worst, inherits the veteran catcher ™ role from Jeff Mathis. It’s a huge haul.

On the financial risk. It’s legitimate and steep but… is it? As Gregor Chisholm notes, Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle are key here. Neither wanted Toronto’s money a year ago. Both will now be under Toronto’s control for years (2018 and 2015, respectively) and, incredibly, may represent ultimately represent good value. Reyes has 5yr-$96M on his deal. He enters next year at 29. He’ll be 34 in 2018. He’ll have lost a step and may end up shifting to second base. It’s hard to see anyone in the Jays’ system pushing for a job at short or second in 3 years. If he has to move across the keystone, and he may not, Toronto can afford to do it. Buehrle will be 34 at the start of next season. He is now signed for 3yr-$46M. You know the criticisms. He’s never had power stuff, he’s bound to break down one day, life in the AL East may not treat him nicely. Fair points. But watch the free agent market this winter. Come April, ask yourself if you’d rather have three years of Buehrle or three years, for the dollars, of Edwin Jackson or Kyle Lohse. Johnson will 29 on Opening Day and, in his case, the risk runs both ways. There’s debate about how durable his shoulder is a year removed from major surgery. There are questions about how he’ll adjust to the AL East. Fact is, starters without question marks aren’t available. Few can match his upside. And Johnson is entering his walk year. A free agent himself in 12 months. Plenty of incentive there. Bonifacio has speed to burn and may end up the starting second baseman. Buck is a spare part.

The talent required to make the deal was also significant but… was it? The prizes are Jake Marisnick and Justin Nicolino. Marisnick has major tools. He’ll play in the majors. He can handle centre and will likely play a strong corner. He can run. But his hit tool and approach bring questions. Nicolino has polish and may arrive this summer. More likely, he’ll stick in 2014. But his ceiling looks like a mid-rotation starter. Adeiny Hechavarria will stick at short. He may win gold gloves. He may not hit enough to start. During his brief trial in Toronto, he showed improvement with the bat. But his approach remains very raw after 1500+ minor league at-bats. Miami could have rightly asked Toronto for these three just for Johnson. Henderson Alvarez is young, cheap and eats innings. But will he ever develop a breaking ball? He hasn’t shown the ability to yet. He may end up a reliever. Same goes for Anthony DeScalfani. Jeff Mathis is a caddy and mentor for Miami’s young catchers and whoever ends up pitching. Yunel Escobar has talent, particularly afield. But his quick dismissal should leave few doubts about Toronto’s expectations for player conduct. That his talent was as selectively applied as during his Atlanta years only made the decision to cut bait easier. From a PR standpoint, his dismissal is a net win. For all the question marks accompanying the new Jays, there are no sure things destined for Miami. I am most bullish on Nicolino.

The deal is a game-changer. As Shi Davidi writes, it is the move that will be seen as broadly defining Anthopoulos’ career. And yet it is also another example of Anthopoulos striking when an instance of (in this case profound) value arises. It is perhaps more the culmination of his work than the definition.

THE SIGNING

Few signings could inspire the few righteous, holier-than-thou detractors that sit in the Rogers Centre stands more than the signing of Melky Cabrera. He took a banned substance. He apparently tried to create a fake website to leave a paper trail as proof of his ignorance or, gulp, innocence. He has a reputation for dogging it. He’s also been worth 8.8 wins above replacement over the past two years — the last one halted after just 113 games. He disqualified himself from the batting title but still lead the National League in hitting. He was the MVP of the All-Star game. He benefitted from an insane BABIP and ran out 6/7 bunt attempts. But he also enters next year at age 28. And will spend the next two years making glorified Adam Lind money. He’s worth the risk.

THE RETURN

According to a report from Bob Elliott in the Toronto Sun, Anthopoulos was spotted having dinner with a familiar face in Yorkville Sunday night. John Gibbons. And, come the morning, Gibby will be announced as the Blue Jays’ new manager. The first instinct is, obviously: !!!!!

But allow us a bit more nuance. Gibbons fits all the criteria Anthopoulos has been referring to these past weeks. He knows the city, the staff, the division. He knows Anthopoulos. And, for all the chiding he receives because of past dust-ups with Shea Hillenbrand and Ted Lilly, not to mention his Rasmusian southern drawl and old-boy manner, he demonstrated strong tactical skills in his first go-round here. He’s willing to platoon players for maximum effect. Exhibit A: Freed Johnsonalatto. He showed very effective bullpen management, too. Back then, his big problem was that the Jays’ rotation consisted of Doc, A.J. (for a time) and, essentially, a bunch of shit-ballers. No more.

With most of the industry settling Thanksgiving plans and posturing ahead of the December GM meetings, Alex Anthopoulos has remade his ballclub, reignited a city and restored his ninja status once and for all. What the hell else does he have to do? Find a platoon-mate for Adam Lind or, hell, David Cooper? Maybe. Decide on a catcher of the future? Not necessarily. Convince Darren Oliver to play again? He’s off to a some start.

The Rule 5, the base coaches, they’ll shake down fine. Reinforcements (Kyle Drabek, Drew Hutchison and Luis Perez) are on track for late-summer returns. For now, a big welcome back to Gibby. A very big welcome to the Marlin 5. Some unobtrusive supervision of the Melkman. And a very sincere expression of gratitude to the new King of Toronto.

Thanks, Alex.

Meet the man who may possess the nastiest arm on the Toronto Blue Jays staff, Steve Delabar. (Anthony Bolante/Reuters).

Five months ago, the Toronto Blue Jays traded their starting left fielder for Steve Delabar. It was a bold acquisition. Delabar was a year out of A-ball and about eighteen months removed from being out of the game altogether. In Toronto, he found his stride quickly, writing the next chapter in what’s already an incredible story of perseverance. Let’s look at his background as we try to determine how big a role he can assume in the Blue Jays’ new-look bullpen.

PROFILE

The Anaheim Angels drafted Steve Delabar in the 43^rd round, 1283^rd overall, of the 2002 MLB Amateur Draft out of Volunteer State Community College in northern Tennessee. He chose not to sign and re-entered the draft in 2003 where he was selected by the San Diego Padres in the 29^th round, 851^st overall. In the same draft, the Padres selected Dirk Hayhurst with their eighth pick – 21 rounds and 630 picks before Delabar. If Hayhurst was the poster-boy for non-prospects, Delabar was the leaflet.

He didn’t begin his pro career immediately but eventually signed with San Diego in May 2004 as a draft-and-follow. He began his pro career with the Arizona League Padres before receiving a late promotion to the short-season Eugene Emeralds. He was used as a swingman and put up pretty pedestrian numbers between the two levels: 17 games, 9 of them starts, going 4-5, 3.90 in 62.1 innings with a 50/24 SO/BB ratio for a 7.2 K/9 with a 1.41 WHIP.

He spent all of 2005 starting in Eugene with similar results: 16 games, 4-6, 4.76 in 75.2 IP with a 59/18 SO/BB and a 1.35 WHIP. The only growth he showed was an improved walk rate. At age 22, Delabar was still in short-season ball and looked like he’d be lucky to hold on as organizational filler.

San Diego promoted him to the full-season Fort Wayne TinCaps in 2006 and he continued to hold his own but did little to stand out. In 27 starts, he went 8-9 with a 3.41 ERA in 145 IP with a 118/65 SO/BB and a 1.34 WHIP. He essentially survived by avoiding contact, surrendering a very good 8.0 H/9 and giving up just 8 home runs. But the result was a tremendous decline in his control and his walk rate surged from 2.1 BB/9 up to 4.0 BB/9. Guys like this fill the low minors for every team in baseball.

In 2007, the Padres converted him to relief with the high-A Lake Elsinore Storm. But Delabar struggled badly (2-6, 5.59, 29 IP, 33/16 SO/BB, 5.0 BB/9) in the brutal pitching environs of the California League and he was soon back in Fort Wayne. A forgotten man. Worse, he was absolutely shelled, with a 5.96 ERA and 48/46 SO/BB rate in 21 games and 68 IP. The walks worsened further (to a brutal 5.8 BB/9) and cost him time and again. It was a dreadful campaign. The only upside in his stat line was his 10.2K/9 rate as a reliever with Lake Elsinore. But he was now 24 and failing against A-ball competition. His place in the organization and, indeed, his baseball future was now in jeopardy.

The Padres gave him one last chance to hold onto a job in the Fort Wayne bullpen in 2008. But he sprained an ankle in April and, when he wasn’t hurt, disappointed on the mound: 11 games, a 5.27 ERA, in 13.2 innings with a 12/5 SO/BB rate and a 1.61 WHIP. The Padres finally cut him loose in May. No one else took a chance on him, either. Delabar did manage to catch on briefly with the Florence Freedom of the Frontier League and then the Brockton Rox of the independent Canadian-American Association. But his path back to organized baseball was now obscured and any prospects of realizing his major league dream were dim.

Delabar returned to Broxton in 2009 but his season ended in ruin. He suffered a fractured right elbow requiring the insertion of a steel plate and nine screws in the elbow to stabilize it. It was a serious arm injury and the recovery would also cost him the entire 2010 season. To most, it appeared Delabar’s baseball career was over.

Unable to play competitively, he returned home to Kentucky to work as a substitute teacher. The only game he could get into was a local slow pitch softball league. Hilariously Obscure Trivia Alert: Delabar won the 2010 Louisville Invitational Tournament’s Home Run Derby. He also began a velocity improvement program to learn tools that he thought might benefit the students he was teaching. But the experiment started working on him. With an emphasis on gaining strength and arm speed, Delabar soon found he could consistently dial his velocity up to 93 MPH – a huge leap from his earlier 89. He soon found he could touch 96. It was an incredible piece of rehab training. That’s when the instructor, Joe Newton, reached out to the Seattle Mariners to secure Delabar a tryout. His rehab complete, Delabar convinced the Mariners he was worth a minor league contract. It was April and the season had already started but Delabar was now back in organized ball almost three years after being cut.

Seattle started him back in the California League with the High Desert Mavericks. Given his injury history, he would now be used strictly as a reliever. Delabar was about to turn 28 and facing college juniors. But he cleared the mental hurdles of returning from surgery and held his own, pitching in 7 games with a 4.38, 20/8 SO/BB line in 12.1 IP. His control was poor but the Mariners took note of the 14.6 SO/9 rate and promoted him quickly to the AA Jackson Generals of the Southern League. There he threw in 23 games and went 1-3, 2.05 in 30.2 innings with an alarming 30/26 SO/BB rate. His K/9 dipped expectedly and his walk rate was now surging to an untenable 7.6 BB/9. Seattle promoted him again, anyway, this time to the AAA Tacoma Rainiers of the Pacific Coast League. Something clicked. 10 games, 1-1, 0.69 in 13 IP with an 18/6 SO/BB. He looked like a new pitcher.

The Mariners rewarded those results by calling him up when rosters expanded in September. He debuted at home against Kansas City with a scoreless inning and two strikeouts then won his first game three days against the New York Yankees. In all, he got into 6 games, going 1-1, 2.57, 7 IP with a 7/4 SO/BB rate. It was an extraordinary season. The kind TV movies are written about. After shipping bullpen parts in summer trades, the Mariners were ready to pencil him into their retooled bullpen going into 2012. It tooks Delabar 9 years to get out of A-ball. Now, after all the pain and failure, he’d made it to the show in 6 months.

Delabar made the Mariners out of spring training and opened the season with the team in Japan. But his stayed only lasted until the end of May. His peripheral stats were very strong. But in two months, Delabar surrendered seven home runs in just 24.1 innings. Bullpen meltdowns were all-too-common for the 2012 Mariners and, coupled with the team’s impotent offence, fatal. Delabar was dispatched to Tacoma and rode the shuttle back and forth until the trade deadline, when Seattle traded him to the Toronto Blue Jays for outfielder Eric Thames. Most Blue Jays’ fans were more concerned with the simultaneous acquisition of Brad Lincoln (for fan favourite Travis Snider) and Delabar’s arrival flew under the radar. That didn’t last long.

He quickly became a favourite of manager John Farrell’s and even received a moment of national attention for becoming the first pitcher in major league history to strike out four batters in one extra inning (he’s also the only Blue Jay ever to strike out four batters in one frame) in August. His combined line was a career-high 61 games, 4-3, 3.82 in 66 innings with a terrific 92/26 SO/BB ratio. In Toronto, Delabar managed to throw his fastball for quality strikes rather than pitches hitters could drive. It sets up a devastating splitfinger that’s a major weapon and is almost impossible for hitters to drive when located effectively. Delabar only gave up 3 home runs after arriving in Toronto and saw his strong strikeout rate leap to astronomical levels (11.3K/9 to 14.1 K/9). Despite a bit of comman regression, he still managed a 3.07 xFIP.

One of the reasons for his increased success is clearly his increased use of the splitter. Delabar threw just 60% fastballs in 2012 against almost 35% splitters – one of the highest rates in baseball. It’s particularly effective tailing away from left-handed hitters, which resulted in a .171/.246/.551 linefrom southpaws. He also features a toy slider with video game bite. But the pitch isn’t refined and he can at times struggle to control it. The 4-strikeout inning and 6 wild pitches show he’s not an easy pitcher to catch. When everything’s working, he’s even harder to hit. Delabar now appears poised to log important middle and late innings for the Blue Jays in 2013.

OUTLOOK

Steve Delabar enters 2013 as a potentially devastating weapon in the Blue Jays’ bullpen. Not many teams have the luxury of turning to a power arm with this kind of stuff in the middle innings. But if Casey Janssen is his usual, reliable self and Sergio Santos returns to health, that’s likely the role Toronto will use Delabar in. He’s not a sure bet. His struggles with command are well-documented. He must also keep the ball in the park and stay healthy.

But if Delabar can pick up where he left off, his acquisition will deserve to go down as one of the great under-the-radar moves of Alex Anthopoulos’ tenure. Very quietly, the reliever finished 2012 with the sixth-highest strikeout rate in baseball (min. 60IP). If you look at just his Toronto numbers, he jumps to third. Relievers come with no guarantees, but Delabar has a rare arm. He won’t be eligible for arbitration until at least 2015 and free agency until 2018. By then, he could be closing for someone or teaching again.

Delabar’s story makes him easy to root for. Here’s hoping it’s the former.

STAT SHEET

Steve Delabar, RP
07/17/83            Bats: R             Throws: R       HT: 6-5          WT: 220
Fort Knox, Kentucky                     College: Volunteer State (Gallatin, TN)
Drafted by San Diego in the 29^th round, 851^st overall, of the 2003 MLB Amateur Draft.
Acquired: Traded to Toronto on July 30, 2012.
Contract Status: Not eligible for arbitration before 2015.
Salary: $480,700
Service Time: 0.023

Mike Aviles will be expected to contribute as a utility man in Cleveland after a short stopover in Toronto. (Jared Wickerham/Getty)

Mike Aviles now carries the rare distinction of being traded for a manager but his versatility and pop make him interesting. It’s not clear if acquiring Aviles signals the beginning of a reload in Cleveland or if he’ll be deployed as a super-sub. But semi-regular playing time seems certain. Let’s see what he offer them – and what the Blue Jays are passing on.

PROFILE

The Kansas City Royals drafted Mike Aviles in the 7^th round, 192^nd overall of the 2003 MLB Amateur draft out of Concordia College in Bronxville, New York. He has major league bloodlines. His uncle Ramon Aviles played parts  of 4 seasons in the bigs in the late 70s. Mike was by far the Royals’ most valuable selection of the wasted 2003 class (the Chris Lubanski draft) and, interestingly, was chosen 23 picks before Brendan Ryan. Even though he was named a Division II All-American and won its triple crown he was also a college senior from a second tier program. With no leverage, Kansas City offered him a $1,000 contract and started him with its Arizona League team. He ripped a .363/.404/.585 line with 19 doubles, 5 triples, 6 HR and 11 steals in just 52 games on his way to league MVP honours. He was 22 and playing against high schoolers so he should’ve hit the lights out. But it was a strong start for a player with something to prove.

Assigned to the high-A Wilmington Blue Rocks in 2004, Aviles continued to excel. In 126 games, he hit .300/.352/.443 with 40 2B, 6HR and a 57/39 SO/BB ratio. Aviles didn’t walk much but he showed excellent contact skills and strong gap pop, leading the league in doubles. His baserunning declined, stealing only 2 bases in 7 tries. He lacked physical tools, standing close to 5-9 with a solid build, and scouts doubted his ability to stay at shortstop. There were also questions about his unorthodox batting stance, featuring a pronounced pre-swing bat waggle. And he was 23. But Aviles had clearly shown enough to warrant a look at AA where the depth of his talent would be tested.

The Texas League offers inviting hitting environments for most players but Aviles failed to take true advantage of his new home with the Wichita Wranglers. He played 133 games but his offence slumped to .280/.318/.447 with 33 doubles, 6 triples and 14 home runs. He drove in 80 and continued to play as a serious contact bat, with a 64/30 SO/BB ratio. The walks were low and all that contact resulted in 6 double plays. Aviles did resume stealing bases effectively, with 11 in 17 tries. Defensively, he struggled badly, making a league-leading 33 errors, causing the Royals to move him around the diamond. He ultimately played SS (102), 3B (20) and 2B (12). It was a disappointing season but Aviles had a clean health record and, because he could perform at short, had an outside shot at reaching the majors if luck broke his way.

It would not happen in 2006. But the Royals promoted Aviles to the AAA Omaha Storm Chasers. There his line declined further to .264/.307/.373 in 129 games. Contact remained one of his calling cards as he swatted to a 48/28 SO/BB rate and he did come on late in the year, batting .317 over the final six weeks, and contributing a career-high 14 steals. Kansas City moved him off of shortstop to third, where he continued to struggle with the glove, making 20 errors. At 25, his ceiling looked like that of a future reserve.

He got his second kick at AAA the following season and made significant strides. In 133 games, Aviles hit .296/.332/.463 with 27 doubles, 6 triples and 17 home runs. He drove in 77 and there were signs of encouragement. The power surge didn’t affect Aviles’ approach (59/30 SO/BB). Though it did backfire on the basepaths as he hit into an ungodly 24 double plays. Defensively, the Royals tapped into Aviles’ versatility, spreading his playing time between 2B, SS and 3B. But he still made 23 errors. Still, his offence earned him Royals’ Minor League Player of the Year honours. To further hone his game, Aviles played for Tigres de Aragua in Venezuelan winter leagues. He was already 26. But had worked his way onto the Royals’ radar as someone who might be able to contribute in the majors. That offseason, he was available to every team in baseball in the Rule 5 draft. No one took him.

He didn’t break camp with the Royals in 2008 but started even stronger in Omaha, playing 51 games and hitting .336/.370/.631 with 21 doubles, 6 triples, 0 home runs and 42 RBI with a 23/11 SO/BB. Kansas City promoted him in late May and Aviles never relinquished his shot. He ultimately played 102 games, hitting .325/.354/.480 with 27 2B, 10 HR and a staggering 121 OPS+. He also stole 8 bases. The Royals went 23-37 before his recall and 52-50 with him on the roster. Aviles finished 61 plate appearances short of qualifying for the batting title but would’ve finished third in the American League. He did place 4^th in AL Rookie of the Year voting, won the Royals Player of the Year award, broke the team’s rookie batting record and, at 27, set himself up as their starting shortstop entering 2009. The big question was whether his development was real or just fluke. Judging by his 58/18 SO/BB profile and .357 BABIP, the latter seemed a real possibility.

Aviles played for Puerto Rico in the 2009 World Baseball Classic but strained his forearm. Though he opened the season as the Royals starting shortstop, the injury absolutely wrecked his performance and ultimately required Tommy John surgery. In June, his season was over. But not before he’d hit a terrible .183/.208/.250 with only 5 extra-base hits in 36 games. Worse, he flailed at everything near the plate en route to a 26/4 SO/BB. This opened the door for Yuniesky Betancourt, acquired at midseason, something Royals fans hold Aviles more accountable for than his injury performance.

In 2010, Aviles started the season behind Betancourt on the depth chart (!) and the Royals moved him to second base where he played 87 of his 110 games and hit an effective .304/.335/.413 driven by a .327 BABIP. His power was noticeably absent, resulting in only 16 doubles and 8 HR. But he swiped 14 bases and regained control of the zone (49/20 SO/BB). After a huge September spiked his overall totals, it looked like the good Aviles was back. But he was now entering his age 30 season. That winter, the Royals traded Zack Greinke (with Betancourt) to the Milwaukee Brewers in a package built around a shortstop of the future, Alcides Escobar. They would move Alex Gordon to left field and Aviles to third. He now looked like a stopgap for stud prospect Mike Moustakas.

The Royals opened 2011 at home with Aviles as their leadoff man but when he slumped early (.222/.261/.395) they optioned him to Omaha in favour of Moustakas. That was basically it for Aviles in Kansas City; a nice story whose time had run out. At the trade deadline, the Royals shipped him to the Boston Red Sox for infielder Yamaico Navarro and minor league pitcher Kendal Volz. He took quickly to Fenway, playing all over the field (including left and right), hitting .317/.340/.436 in 38 games after the trade. It was a weird year for Aviles. He ran a lot in limited playing time (14 steals in 18 tries) and managed 27 extra-base hits but didn’t show nearly enough consistency to warrant everyday duty. But he crushed left-handed pitching (.318/.348/.576) and showed strong utility skills. Curiously, Boston dealt Jed Lowrie and Marco Scutaro for relief help and established Aviles as its top shortstop. He played winter ball for Leones de Ponce in Puerto Rico after the season to improve his defense around the diamond.

In 2012, Aviles responded to new opportunity by posting career numbers across several categories – all of them counting stats. In truth, his offence receded badly and he hit just .250/.282/.381 despite 28 doubles, 13 HR and 60 RBI in 136 games. He stole 14 bases and was caught 6 times. His 19.3% LD rate was similar to his strong rookie year (20.2%) but his BABIP bottomed out at .269 – most of it due to an increased pop-up rate. He also lost his strong contact tool (77/23 SO/BB) at one point going more than a month without taking a walk. After a strong April, he swung at an inexcusable 43.1% of pitches outside the strike zone and didn’t play much in September as the Red Sox auditioned Jose Iglesias. Interestingly, defensive metrics were very kind to Aviles with a 2.0 Defensive WAR and only 15 errors.

In October, the Blue Jays reportedly chose him over nominal Red Sox closer Andrew Bailey as compensation for new manage John Farrell. Then flipped him to the Cleveland Indians for hard-throwing reliever Esmil Rogers.

OUTLOOK

Aviles remains very versatile in the field and appears to have improved his game at shortstop considerably over the years. This is now where his greatest value lies. Boston didn’t move him around in 2012 and the metrics suggest the stability agreed with him.

He can also hit southpaws; an asset for a Cleveland lineup built around lefties. He is still reasonably cost-effective and should be able to perform at his current level for a couple of years before his skills show decline. That said, his approach risks making his bat altogether fringy and he’ll have to control the strike zone better to keep his job. But his defense and versatility will allow him to kick around a while. And though he definitely fails to get on base enough to start regularly, he can spell a team in case of injury or matchups.

He’ll be reunited in Cleveland with Terry Francona, so expect to see Aviles playing all around the diamond to spell regulars and perhaps caddying for Lonnie Chisenhall against lefties. He’s a good fit in Cleveland as a reserve and allows the team to explore the trade market for Asdrubal Cabrera. That may be the only way for Cleveland to add top-level arms.

STAT SHEET

Mike Aviles, SS/IF
03/13/81            Bats: R             Throws: R       HT: 5-10        WT: 205
New York, New York                    High School: Middletown
Drafted by Kansas City in the 7^th round, 192^nd  overall, in 2003 MLB Amateur Draft.
Acquired: Traded to Cleveland on November 3, 2012.
Contract Status: Arbitration eligible; FA in 2015.
2012 Salary: $1,200,000
Service Time: 3.091

The Blue Jays are calling on Drew Carpenter to try and ease their bullpen woes. Or, at the very least, eat innings. (Brad White/Getty Images)

Drew Carpenter is the 25^th pitcher the Toronto Blue Jays have used this season (including, yes, backup catcher Jeff Mathis). Carpenter, like much of the veritable cannon fodder that’s toed the slab before him, was initially acquired as a minor league depth arm. Let’s examine his case to see if he can help stop the bleeding in the Blue Jays’ beleaguered bullpen.

PROFILE

The Philadelphia Phillies selected Drew Carpenter in the 2^nd round, 65^th overall, of the 2006 MLB amateur draft out of Long Beach State where he majored in criminal justice. He was the Phillies’ third pick in the Kyle Drabek draft and made a good selection opposite Drabek as a polished college guy who could potentially move quickly. He signed in June and breezed through 2 appearances with the Gulf Coast League Phillies before moving up to the Batavia Muckdogs of the New York-Penn League. He sailed through 3 games there, too, giving up 1 run in 11.2 IP with a 12/5 SO/BB. At 21, Carpenter was advanced for the competition but it was a good start from a guy ready to begin his career in earnest at a higher level.

In 2007, Philadelphia assigned Carpenter to the high-A Clearwater Threshers of the Florida State League and he delivered a great season. In 27 games, 24 of them starts, he went 17-6 with a 3.20 ERA in 163 IP and a 116/53 SO/BB line. He led the circuit in wins, complete games (3) and shutouts (2) and in August threw a 7-inning perfect game against the Fort Myers Miracle. He really heated up at midseason, going 10-2, 2.05 in 12 second-half starts and was undefeated in 2 playoff starts, leading Clearwater to the league championship. He also played in the FSL All-Star game. He was hittable at times, allowing 150 knocks (8.3 H/9) and 16 home runs, but it was obviously a hugely successful campaign. At this point, neither Carpenter’s fastball or slider were considered plus pitches but he had little left to prove and seemed ready for the jump to AA. His lack of strikeouts (6.4 K/9) suggested that his future might be in relief. But the Phillies rightly decided to let him start until he proved he couldn’t.

Carpenter was promoted to the AA Reading Phillies to begin 2008 but he struggled badly there and never got on track. In 16 starts he produced an ugly 6-8, 5.67 line with sliding ratios (69/30) and an ungodly 11H/9 hit rate across 93.2 innings. His only mercy arrived after he came down with a case of turf toe that required a rehab stint in Clearwater. He could handle A-ball hitters (3-3, 2.92, 52.1IP, 32/9 SO/BB in 8 games) but his ongoing lack of punchouts (5.5 SO/9) indicated he’d likely encounter more struggles against advanced competition. When he returned to Reading, Carpenter made 5 decent starts and earned a surprise promotion to the AAA Lehigh Valley IronPigs for a one start cameo (7IP, 2ER). Then, in late August, came the mother of all shockers: a call to Philadelphia where he quickly made his major league debut with a scoreless innings against the New York Mets. All told, Carpenter’s combined line across 25 minor league starts was 9-12, 4.59, 153 IP and a 106/42 SO/BB. It was a whirlwind season. 4 levels. With poor results – yet several promotions. He even earned a World Series ring when the Phillies quieted Tampa Bay in October. He was working to develop a splitter but still lacked a true strikeout pitch and struggled badly on days when his control left him. The AA stats were especially galling. At this point, it was hard to see Carpenter making any impact as a starter or serving as much more than fringe-level depth in relief. He finished the year in the Arizona Fall League with the Mesa Solar Sox and entered 2009 with his prospects dimming.

Philadelphia assigned Carpenter to Lehigh Valley to begin 2009 and he showed mild improvement. In 25 games, he went 11-6, 3.35, in 156 IP, improving his control (120/47 SO/BB) and cutting his hit rate (9.3H/9) and WHIP (1.34) to sustainable levels. The Phillies recalled him in May to start the second game of a doubleheader against the Mets and got Carpenter his first major league win. He’d be summoned again in July and September but could only manage 3 total appearances for all his frequent flying. In a strange move, the team actually optioned him to the low-A Lakewood Blue Claws after rosters expanded in September so that he could team with Travis d’Arnaud to bolster the staff during the South Atlantic League playoffs. Despite the curious handling, Carpenter bettered his totals and, with the Phillies gutting their system in trades, was now one of its last young arms standing. His stuff still lacked sizzle and his ceiling was limited. But he looked like a future long reliever who could swing into a few starts if he kept his control.

2010 brought fresh promise. With injuries to Joe Blanton, Brad Lidge and J.C Romero, Carpenter made the Phillies bullpen out of spring training. But he only stuck for 4 days, never getting into a game, before the team grabbed Nelson Figueroa off waivers from the Mets, sending Carpenter back to Lehigh Valley. In the end, Carpenter made just one appearance with the Phillies all season. He spent the rest of the year in AAA, making 27 starts and going 8-11, 4.05 in 151 innings with a 116/54 SO/BB ratio. He was effective in bursts, delivering 14 quality starts and setting an IronPigs record with 19 career wins, but continued to run into a familiar dilmena: the absence of a true out pitch. Given the chance, he might’ve kept the Phillies in games. But he was a below-average starting option and would again enter spring training on the outside of the Phillies’ pitching mix looking in.

In 2011, Carpenter returned to Lehigh Valley with one key difference. This time, the Phillies planned to use him exclusively out of the bullpen. The move allowed him to ditch a below-average changeup he’d been working on. The results in smaller samples were remarkable: 34 games, 5-1, 1.79 in 60.1 innings with an excellent 65/11 SO/BB ratio. Opponents hit only 2 home runs off him on their way to a meagre .213 BAA and Carpenter registered career-best peripherals across the board (7.2 H/9, 0.3 HR/9, 0.98 WHIP). Encouraged, the Phillies called Carpenter up in late June and gave him a shot to stick. He got into 6 games, but struggled again: 0-0, 7.71 in 9.1 IP with a 10/4 SO/BB. In September, Philadelphia tried to slip him through outright waivers but he was claimed by the San Diego Padres. He pitched in 6 games for San Diego, working scoreless ball in 4 of them, but failed to find consistency and wound up with an 0-0, 8.44, 5.1 IP, 6/1 SO/BB line. His combined ERA was 7.98 and simply looked overmatched despite surprising strikeout numbers.

In November, the Padres put Carpenter on waivers ahead of the Rule 5 draft. Toronto saw a chance to add him as a depth arm and swept in. He began this season as a reliever with the AAA Las Vegas 51s. Toronto’s flood of injuries at the big league level forced the 51s to plug Carpenter into their rotation and, so far, he’s had success pitching in either role. In 21 games, 12 starts, he’s 6-3, 3.38, in 74.2 innings with 56/19 SO/BB. Lefties are hitting .297 against him. but has been remarkably consistent, under 3.50 every month. Significantly, he also managed a 78% GB rate. Maintaining his ability to keep the ball on the ground will be imperative for Carpenter as he moves forward, whether that’s in Toronto or AAA. He’s now 27 years old.

OUTLOOK

Right now, Carpenter’s one of several arms on the staff simply filling space, eating innings and helping the Jays weather the long summer months. What he offers is good health and the ability to throw multiple innings. Carpenter’s a sturdy guy and, thus far, he’s avoided any significant arm injuries. This year in Las Vegas he’s also shown that he can keep games close in an unfavourable pitching environment. That may sound like faint praise. But if he were more skilled, it wouldn’t have taken him this long to arrive.

For me, Carpenter carries a bit of intrigue as a good pedigree guy with clean health and a recent history of throwing strikes, particularly when used in relief. It also remains possible that a full-time conversion to the ‘pen could add a touch of velocity to his fastball. His prospect standing is on par with Chad Beck, Robert Coello and (gulp) Jesse Chavez, not to mention a handful of other jobbers occupying the Blue Jays’ minor league rosters. He’s a classic 4A guy with some upside. Odds are he’ll have spurts of consistency and others where he’ll get bombed. If you look hard enough, he’s got a chance to be something. That’s about all Toronto can hope on right now.

STAT SHEET

Drew Carpenter, RP
05/18/85            Bats: R             Throws: R       HT: 6-3          WT: 230
Fairfield, California                                College: Long Beach State
Drafted by Philadelphia in the 2^nd round, 65^th overall, of the 2006 MLB Amateur Draft.
Acquired: Selected off waivers in November 2011.
Contract Status: Not eligible for arbitration before 2015.
Salary: $414,000
Service Time: 0.087

Many thought health might keep Sam Dyson from wearing a major league uniform; few saw him wearing a Jays’ uni so soon. (Brad White/Getty Images)

So here we are. With the Blue Jays’ pitching staff decimated by injury and underperformance and the hitters stubbornly slugging the team to fringe contention, we’re in full-on all-arms-on-deck mode. Enter Sam Dyson. Who? He’s a pitcher the Jays drafted out of college while injured. Who didn’t pitch last year. Who made his professional debut in April. It’s possible that we are nowhere and it is now. Here’s more on Dyson. Let’s hope he doesn’t suck.

PROFILE

In 2006, the Washington Nationals drafted Sam Dyson in the 19^th round of the MLB Amateur Draft out of Jesuit High School in Tampa, Florida. Dyson chose to honour his commitment to the University of South Carolina instead of signing. In 2009, his sophomore season, he was drafted again – this time by the Oakland Athletics in the 10^th round. He was considered a tough sign due to both injury history and signability and, indeed, Dyson turned down the A’s offers and returned to Columbia for his senior season. It didn’t take long for his gamble to look questionable as he promptly blew out his elbow in mid-season. Tantalized by his natural talent, the Toronto Blue Jays drafted him in the 4^th round, 126^th overall, fully aware he’d require Tommy John surgery that would cost him the entire 2011 season.

There’s so little pro data to analysis on Dyson that, for now, the best way to get a read on him is to consult reports on him from school.

Back in 2006, he likely would’ve been drafted in the top 5 rounds if not for his strong college commitment. By 2007, he’d been bit by the injury bug – at maximum force. First, Dyson underwent labrum surgery on his throwing shoulder. He also needed surgery on his left shoulder. And, finally, an elbow procedure called ulnar transposition surgery to stop a nerve from rubbing against the bone. His chart now read like a reconstructed doll. Labrum surgery is typically cited as the worst of them. It’s no sure thing. You’ll remember it costing Casey Janssen his entire 2008 season and he also spent much of 2009 struggling to find his former self. Some never do. The surgeries and rehab would cost Dyson, then 19, all of 2007.

By 2008, he was pitching again and showing good arm strength. But his raw stuff wasn’t producing results. He could touch 96-97 MPH on the gun. But his heat lacked movement. And genuine durability concerns were now a part of his scouting report.

Entering 2009, he was seen as one of the hardest throwers in the draft. But Dyson was incredible raw – a classic thrower rather than a thrower and, fair enough, given the time lost to injury. His performance with the Gamecocks didn’t help his case. On one hand, he helped alleviate concerns about his durability by firing 102 innings as a sophomore. But he gave up 18 home runs and looked, frankly, very hittable. Oakland bought a lottery ticket on him but couldn’t get him to sign. Perhaps it was just as well. By August, Dyson had developed bone chips in his right elbow and had to be shut down for the season to remove them.

He began the 2010 season healthy and, perhaps not coincidentally, recorded his best season ever: 14 games, 5-5, 3.92 in 82.2 innings with an 86/17 SO/BB line and just 3 home runs allowed. But he simply couldn’t keep the doctors away, blowing out his elbow mid-season. The Jays selected him anyway, paid for his operation and rushed him into the system before injury could strike again.

He made his professional debut with the high-A Dunedin Blue Jays this year, making 6 starts and going 2-0, 4.08 in 28.2 IP with a 16/5 SO/BB rate. Not bad, particularly for a ‘baseball rookie’ recovering from Tommy John, but not particularly exemplary either. Toronto quickly promoted him to the AA New Hampshire Fisher Cats and wasted little time converting him to relief – a move designed to reduce the toll on his fragile arm and push him quickly through the minors. There he pitched in 15 games, going 0-0, 0.75 in 24 IP, allowing 19 hits and working to an 8/8 SO/BB line. He’d recently become the team’s closer and earned 3 saves.

Dyson still possesses a starter’s four-pitch repertoire: a developing slider, fringe curveball and change. But these days it’s his sinker that’s carried him to the majors so quickly. He no longer throws the blazing heat of his college peak (now sitting in the low 90s rather than 95-96) but his ball possesses quality dive. Granted, the sample size is small. But right now he’s profiling as an extreme groundball pitcher, netting 3.5 groundouts/fly out in his brief minor league stint. And there remains hope that his velocity could increase a tick if he stays in a relief role and develops more arm strength as his TJ recovery continues. He’s said to have a quiet personality and has, so far, taken well to the conversion into relief.

He arrives in Toronto on a roll, allowing no runs in his last 10 AA outings covering 17 innings. He is 24 years old.

OUTLOOK

It certainly appears Sam Dyson has a major league arm. The fear is that it could fall off at any moment. His AA manager, Sal Fasano, says that although Dyson is in his mid-20s, he’s very young to professional baseball. That, plus his lacklustre minor league K-rate, suggests his early outings could be rocky. If he can continue to keep the ball on the ground, he’ll be helped by the Jays’ strong infield defense. But let’s hold off thinking this guy is an option in tight situations. He’s their 18th (!) reliever of the year, after all. Teams simply can’t plan for emergencies like the kind facing Toronto right now.

I think shifting Dyson to the bullpen and fasttracking him through the system was an inspired, if obvious, move. But it’s hard to see a big league promotion this dramatic benefiting his development or plugging the team’s ongoing relief sieve. Then again, maybe this was always the plan for Dyson. Everything in his medical record suggests he’ll always be one pitch away from a career-ending injury. The most likely scenario has him getting shelled and returning to AA so that Chad Beck, Joel Carreno or, for the love of God, Clint Everts get an extended look.

It used to be that anyone selected beyond the draft’s third round and made it to the majors was considered a steal. Dyson was once seen as a first-round talent. So you have to credit the Blue Jays for making a shrewd value pick and sticking to their vision for him. On the merits of getting to Toronto alone he’s proven worth their gamble.

STAT SHEET

Sam Dyson, RP
05/07/88            Bats: R             Throws: R       HT: 6-2          WT: 205
Tampa, Florida                         College: South Carolina
Drafted by Toronto in the 4th round, 126th overall, of the 2010 MLB Amateur Draft.
(Originally drafted by Washington in the 19th round, 571th overall, of the 2006 MLB Amateur Draft bud did not sign; again drafted by Oakland in the 10^th round, 303^rd overall, in 2009)
Contract Status: Not eligible for arbitration before 2017.
Salary: $414,000
Service Time: 0.0

Robert Coello has a power arm but he’s still learning how to get big league hitters out. (Bryan Green)

Robert Coello may be the most anonymous man on the Toronto Blue Jays roster. Indeed, his journey to the majors is one of the most circuitous on the team. So who is he? Let’s take a look at Coello’s story and what he can bring to the Blue Jays bullpen.

PROFILE

The Kansas City Royals drafted Robert Coello in the 46^th round, 1353^rd overall, out of Lake Region High School in central Florida in the 2003 draft. As a catcher. A high school student with options, Coello chose not to sign and instead attended Northwest Florida State College (then known as Okaloosa-Walton Junior College) before re-entering the draft in 2004. This time, the Cincinnati Reds selected Coello in the 20^th round, 588^th overall and got him to sign on the dotted line.

He began 2005 in extended spring training but fractured a rib in June and missed the rest of the season. A lost year.

The next spring, before Coello ha’d ever played a game for them, the Reds released him. His pro career looked like it could be over before it started. But Coello stayed in shape through the summer and hooked on with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in September. With one catch – they wanted to convert him into a pitcher. At the time, Coello was clocked throwing 90+ mph to the bases. So he didn’t lack for arm strength.

He finally got on the field late in 2007 with the short-season, rookie-level Arizona League Angels. The competition was mostly teenagers – but Coello was only beginning his own development and acquitted himself well. Pitching out of the bullpen, he threw in 20 games and went 1-1, 1.37 in 26.1 innings with a 26/7 SO/BB ratio. But the Angels elected not to keep him and Coello was again a free agent.

But he persevered.

Coello journeyed to the independent leagues, and across the border, playing in Canada in the Golden Baseball League for the Calgary Vipers. He got off to a rocky start and found himself traded to the cross-province Edmonton Cracker-Cats by midseason. He struggled with his control in Edmonton but frequently pitched out of trouble against marginal competition and finished the season with a 3-1, 3.29 line in 41 innings and a 47/24 SO/BB ratio across 32 games. He had good raw stuff but the kind of command issues to be expected from a pitcher with 60-odd innings of professional experience. Still, his performance was enough to catch the attention of the Boston Red Sox who signed him in November. That didn’t stop him from playing winter ball, and working as a starter, for the Algodoneros de Guasave. After years of false starts, and a year in virtual baseball exile, Coello signed with Boston and was headed back into organized ball.

He started the year with the AAA Pawtucket Red Sox, making one appearance, before beginning his expected assignment with the high-A Salem Red Sox of the Carolina League. He showed nasty strikeout stuff on the way to an excellent season: 33 games, 5-3, 2.05 in 66 innings with an 82/34 SO/BB rate and a 1.09 WHIP. The strikeout rate (11.2/9) was exceptional but he fought his control to an unsustainable (4.6/9) walk rate. Once again the positives easily outweighed the negatives for a guy in first year of full-season ball, still learning how to pitch. Opponents hit only .167 off him and he didn’t give up a run in his last ten outings, covering 18.2 IP, including three appearances in the playoffs. Coello flashed potential but needed more minor league time to harness his stuff.

Boston agreed and to begin 2010 assigned Coello to the AA Portland Sea Dogs. He worked as a swingman in 14 games, going 4-1, 3.32 in 43.1 IP and an impressive 51/14 SO/BB ratio. His 3.64 SO/BB ratio was a career best and the improved command earned him a promotion to Pawtucket. The PawSox desperately needed him and worked Coello hard. He pitched in 18 games en route to a 3-5 record and 4.22 ERA across 64 innings. His command slipped a bit, leading to a 79/30 SO/BB line but he was still striking guys out (11.1/9), though his walk rate (4.2/9) was slipping fast. Batters again struggled to make consistent contact against him (.192 BAA) but drove the ball when they did (10 HR allowed). Still, between the two levels, he’d managed to lead all Red Sox farmhands with 130 strikeouts and again finished his season on a high note while pitching out of the PawSox bullpen. In 9 relief outings his ERA was 1.40 (3 ER/19.1 IP) with a 24/9 SO/BB line.

His changeup was lacklustre and his curveball registered as a fringe-level, show-me pitch. But Coello could bring the heat, often touching 95 mph, and looked like he might have a future in the pen. In a neat twist, the future came quickly. In September, Boston rewarded his impressive minor league numbers and allowed him to realize a dream. He made his major league debut at home, against Tampa Bay, and got into 6 total games going, 0-0, 4.76 with a 5/5 SO/BB rate, holding opponents scoreless in 5 of 6 appearances. It was a dream season. But that would soon gives way to a harsher reality. The following February, just days before pitchers and catchers were to report for spring training, Boston signed relievers Alfredo Aceves and Dennys Reyes to bolster their bullpen, designating Coello for assignment to accommodate them. Ultimately, he was traded to the Chicago Cubs for minor league utility guy Tony Thomas. Like that, Coello was a Cub. He would have to prove himself to a new organization – one with little investment in him compared to the Red Sox.

He did begin 2011 on the Cubs’ 40-man roster,  assigned him to the AAA Iowa Cubs. He began the year as a starter but eventually became more of a swingman; sometimes starting games, sometimes finishing them. He piled up a 4-5 record and 6.52 ERA in the rotation – brutal numbers, even for the Pacific Coast League – but Chicago couldn’t afford to move him to the bullpen. They needed his innings. They were having the same problem in the majors and in May signed journeyman Rodrigo Lopez to bail out their limping rotation. Again, Coello found himself D’dFA to make room. This time, he cleared waivers and was outrighted to the AA Tennessee Smokies where he worked as a starter for 4 games, going 1-2, 3.00 in 21 innings with a 16/7 SO/BB ratio, fighting his way back to Iowa. He spent the balance of the season in AAA, pitching out of the bullpen full-time beginning in July. Like in 2010, the results were impressive – 19 appearances, a 1.01 ERA, a .149 BAA with 42 SO in 35.2 innings. Put together, he totalled 30 games, going 6-6, 4.45 in 95 innings with a 94/41 SO/BB ratio. By now, the book on Coello was out: Good stuff, real velocity, questionable command. He turned 27 during the offseason and, with the Cubs rebuilding, found himself a free agent again. His best shot at success was to catch on somewhere as a reliever and hope for an opportunity. He played winter ball in Venezuela and, in December, signed a minor league contract with the Blue Jays.

Toronto seemed a decent fit for Coello. Though the team had a host of relief options in the majors, many in the organization were familiar with Coello’s resume (manager John Farrell was the Red Sox pitching coach in 2010 and first base coach Torey Luvullo managed the PawSox the same year) and keen to tap into his arsenal. Coello also helped his cause by pitching well in spring training before heading to AAA Las Vegas to work as a reliever and spot starter. By now, he’d abandoned his fringe curve in favour of a hard slider. His forkball, called “funky” this year by Farrell, can also be effective. He’s been one of the 51s’ most reliable arms so far, pitching to a 4-1, 3.00 line in 42 IP with just 31 hits allowed and a 43/18 SO/BB ratio in 19 games. In May, the Blue Jays’ bullpen needed bailing out and he was added to the 40-man roster.

OUTLOOK

Coello’s journey to the show has followed a winding road through unconventional outposts. At 27, he now has the best opportunity of his career to stick in the majors for an extended run. The early returns are encouraging: 0-1, 3.60 in 5 innings with 8 strikeouts and 2 walks. The Blue Jays will likely fight to fill innings the rest of the season and, if Coello can continue his early success, it would surely help the team bridge some big middle innings. His ability to throw multiple frames is a big asset. And it doesn’t hurt that John Farrell’s already a fan. It’s not impossible to think he could even start in a pinch before the season’s over.

Coello can reach back and find plus velocity on his fastball – 95 at times, sitting at 92-93 – and there might still be a bit of development in his forkball and slider. Because his arm strength is combined with a funky delivery he still projects best as a middle or possibly late-inning reliever. First he’ll have to prove that he can use his stuff to consistently get major league hitters out. With their rotation decimated, the Jays are in survival mode now. For Coello, that means not all of his opportunities will be ideal. Same goes for Jesse Chavez, Aaron Laffey and Evan Crawford. But it’s a shot. I expect Coello will battle consistency at times, piling up strikeouts in stretches but probably walks, too. Look for him to get heavy usage the rest of the way, finishing in the majors, and possibly finishing with a run of success like he’s experienced in the minors. A line of 2-4, 4.75, 45 IP, 40/25 SO/BB seems right.

STAT SHEET

Robert Coello, RP
11/23/84            Bats: R             Throws: R       HT: 6-5          WT: 250
Bayonne, New Jersey              College: Okaloosa-Walton College (Niceville, Florida)
Drafted by Cincinnati in the 20^th round, 588^th overall, of the 2004 MLB Amateur Draft.
Acquired: Signed as a free agent December 2011.
Contract Status: Not eligible for arbitration before 2016.
Salary: N/A
Service Time: 0.029

The Toronto Blue Jays acquired Jesse Chavez to be a depth arm. A journeyman expected to spend the season at AAA. But Toronto liked his live arm and gave him the chance to stretch out as a starter. Now, Chavez finds himself on the 40-man roster returning to Las Vegas fresh off a successful first appearance with the Jays. Let’s see how he got here and look at whether he can have continued success at the major league level.

PROFILE

The Chicago Cubs drafted Jesse Chavez in the 39^th round, 1158^th overall, in the 2001 MLB Amateur Draft out of AB Miller High School in Fontana, California. A late-round pick with little incentive to sign, Chavez instead chose to attend Riverside Community College and re-enter the draft in 2002. This time, the Texas Rangers selected him in the 42^nd round, 1252^nd overall, ultimately signing him in May of 2003.

He began his professional career that summer with the low-A Spokane Indians of the Northwest League, on a talented squad featuring, among others, John Danks and Ian Kinsler. Chavez served as a swingman across 17 games, starting 8 and going 2-2, 4.55 in 55.1 innings with good stuff but spotty command (48/31 SO/BB). He wasn’t highly regarded but held his own despite being the youngest arm on the team.

In 2004, Texas promoted him to the low-A Clinton Lumber Kings of the Midwest League. Pitching mostly out of the rotation, Chavez went 6-10, 4.68 in 123 IP with an improved 96/35 SO/BB count. The surface stats were mediocre but his velocity was impressive, often hitting 94-96, and his hard slider showed potential. He still gave up a lot of hits (10.8/9) and his strikeout rate dipped (7.0K/9) as the innings piled up. But Chavez also cut his walk rate dramatically (2.6BB/9). He still had a lot to prove but his arm withstood the innings increase and he appeared in line for another promotion if he could find a way to miss more bats.

The change of scenery came in 2005. With it, a change in role. Texas management shifted him to the bullpen and the early returns were outstanding. Chavez began with the high-A Bakersfield Blaze and went 0-0, 2.22 in 24.1 IP with only 16 hits allowed (.182 BAA) and an eye-popping 31/9 SO/BB. Chavez was still only 21 and now looked like he could advance quickly. For better or worse, it turned out. In May, the Rangers promoted him to the AA Frisco Rough Riders of the Texas League and Chavez hit his first real stumbling block. He got into 31 games for Frisco and went 4-3 with a 5.68 ERA in 57 innings. He got hit around and, worse, his command deserted him, resulting in a 27/25 SO/BB rate. More advanced hitters teed off on his straight fastball. But Chavez was again one of the youngest pitchers on the team. He’d obviously been rushed. But if he could stay healthy, there would be more chances.

Texas returned him to Frisco in 2006 and, this time, Chavez was ready. In 38 games, he went 2-5, 4.42 in 59 innings – but with great peripherals (only 54 hits allowed and a dynamic 70/28 SO/BB rate). By late July, he’d earned a promotion to AAA. But Chavez lasted 2 games there before another fateful move came. The Rangers were 4 games out of first in the AL West (they were also 2 games under .500 and sitting in last place), and decided to ship Chavez to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Kip Wells in a last-ditch effort to boost their beleaguered rotation. Of course, Wells was terrible in limited action. Mostly, he was injured – only pitching two games for Texas. Chavez was assigned to the AAA Indianapolis Indians. One phone call away from Pittsburgh. He pitched in 12 games, going 2-1, 4.24, in 17 IP with a 15/9 SO/BB line. Chavez was now consistently sitting at 95-96 mph and prospect evaluators were taking note of his live arm. The Pirates selected him to play for the Grand Canyon Rafters of the Arizona Fall League after the season and , there, Chavez really turned up the heat: 0.64 ERA, 14 IP, 1ER. The Pittsburgh pen was ripe with opportunity and Chavez now appeared closer than ever to his first taste of the majors.

Instead, 2007 tested his patience. Chavez spent the entire season in Indianapolis. He went 3-3, 3.92 in 46 games (and 80.1 IP) with a stout 65/17 SO/BB rate. He was hittable (10.5 H/9) but again showed improved control and used his slider and changeup to collect strikeouts. The Pirates’ decision to bury him in AAA seems indefensible. They were awful, again, losing 94 games. And any losing team willing to inflict dreadful, non-prospects like John “Way Back” Wasdin and Marty McLeary has no excuse for not rolling with a pitcher like Chavez. A guy who might be someone. It was typical of the team’s misguided decision-making. In the fall, Chavez returned to Arizona, this time with the Phoenix Desert Dogs, but struggled to a 6.00 ERA in 11 appearances. If he felt frustrated, you couldn’t blame him.

He began 2008 like the year before: in Indianapolis, this time as the closer. Only now Chavez displayed new resolve and, for the first time, indisputable consistency. He went 2-6, 3.80 in 68.2 innings with only 58 hits allowed and a strong 70/22 SO/BB rate. His 1.17 WHIP was a career-best as were his 14 saves. He was now undeniably ready to contribute in the Pirates’ pen and the team called him up, at last, in August. The results weren’t good: 15 total games, 0-1, 6.60 in 15 IP with a 16/9 SO/BB. But he’d made it. Few 42^nd round picks do. If his fastball lacked movement, it at least had velocity. His other stuff was still fringy but could play with more consistency. To wit: Chavez flashed odd inverted splits (.217 vs. LHP, .395 vs. RHP) that betrayed his minor league numbers (.282 vs. LHP, .177 vs. RHP). But the sample size was small. And Chavez had little left to prove in AAA. It was obvious he might never be a late-inning fireman but he showed the qualities of a future middle reliever. He just needed more time. He again played winter ball with the Gigantes del Cibao. He was now 25 and hopeful his chance to stick would come again.

It did. Chavez made the Pirates out of spring training in 2009 and built on his gains bigtime. He led Pittsburgh (and all major league rookies) in appearances by a country mile, with 73 – totaling 67.1 innings. He went 1-4, 4.01 with a 47/22 SO/BB rate. The numbers were just OK. But at least Pittsburgh was trying to utilize a guy that could help them down the road. Still, Chavez faded down the stretch, likely from overuse ,and his ERA ballooned in the second half (3.19 vs. 4.99). He also generated another insane inverse platoon split, with his high-80s slider proving very tough on lefties (.227/.286/.391) but very hittable (.301/.359/.526) against normal people. A poor GB rate (39.3%) contributed to 11 unsightly home runs. But on a terrible Pirates team he was invaluable.

That is, until the offseason when they traded him to the Tampa Bay Rays for Akinori Iwamura, a Japanese import they hoped would fill their organizational chasm at the keystone. Instead, he deepened it. Chavez, meanwhile, never actually dressed as a Ray, spending barely a month in the organization before the Rays sent him to the Atlanta Braves for flame-throwing closer Rafael Soriano. He’d only become available after surprising the Braves by accepting their arbitration offer. Advantage Rays. Soriano became an All-Star, Iwamura was out of the league in a year and Chavez entered 2010 on his third organization of the offseason.

Chavez had decent peripherals for the Braves but was again susceptible to home runs and big innings. The result was an ugly 3-2, 5.89 line in 36.2 IP despite a quality 29/12 SO/BB rate. He was the seventh man in an excellent bullpen. Forgotten and expendable. Looking to add depth for a playoff push, the Braves dealt him to the Kansas City Royals along with former Jays farmhand Tim Collins and outfielder Gregor Blanco in exchange for Kansas City’s closer, Kyle Farnsworth, and useful spare outfielder Rick Ankiel. Chavez scuffled in Kansas City, going 2-3, 5.88 in 26 IP with a subpar 16/11 SO/BB ratio – including a one-inning, 7-run drubbing in August. The Royals had few obvious relief options and Chavez was still just 27. But he was seen as a throw-in to Atlanta deal and his hold on a major league job was slipping. He needed a strong spring to make the Royals’ Opening Day roster.

It didn’t happen. The Royals promoted an influx of young relievers who proved ready for prime time early and Chavez was one of the first pitchers dismissed from camp. He plunged down the team’s depth chart and spent most of the season closing for the AAA Omaha Storm Chasers. Chavez was effective: 2-4, 3.75 in 57.2 innings, with a quality 54/16 SO/BB ratio and 16 saves – very respectable numbers for the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. When he finally did get a shot in the majors, he was terrible, going 0-0, 10.57 in 7.2 IP, with 12 hits allowed, an 8/5 SO/BB and a ugly 2.22 WHIP. He appeared destined to play out his years finishing games in the high minors for other teams’ top prospects.

At a crossroads in his career, Chavez sought to reinvent himself. He played winter ball in Mexico and worked tirelessly to develop a new pitch: a cutter. The Royals weren’t interested and cut him loose. But the Blue Jays claimed him off waivers in October and got a pleasant surprise. After learning he hadn’t made the Opening Day bullpen, Chavez requested the chance to return to starting. Two months into the experiment, he’s been the Jays’ most consistent AAA starter. Better yet, he acquitted himself well in his Blue Jays debut and appears to have supplanted Brett Cecil as the team’s next go-to starter.

OUTLOOK

Incredibly, Jesse Chavez is now on the verge of returning to the majors to fill the rotation slot vacated by injured Blue Jays’ ace Brandon Morrow. If he’s tabbed, his first start will be first in the majors after 144 appearances in relief.

In Las Vegas, Chavez’s stuff has, perhaps surprisingly, held as he’s been stretched out. In 12 starts, he’s 7-2, 3.84 in 70.1 innings with a very strong 65/15 SO/BB ratio and a 1.12 WHIP. Most significantly, Chavez has limited his walks (1.9/9) more effectively than at any point in his career. He still profiles as a fly-ball pitcher so keeping runners off base is imperative for him. So far, the improvement appears real. He has decent velocity, now sitting between 92-94, and his split-change can be effective when he doesn’t overthrow it. The slider remains somewhat inconsistent, too, but he has a chance at 3 passable pitches when they’re all working.

Speaking frankly, Jesse Chavez is almost certainly not the answer to any long-term vacancy in Toronto. But as a spot starter or seventh man in the bullpen, he seems a likely to contribute more than the Dana Evelands and Jo-Jo Reyeses of staffs past. Toronto deserves credit for allowing him the opportunity to follow his heart. But Chavez who deserves his due most. His success story, so far, is the result of his commitment to the cut fastball – itself a product of his faith in his abilities.

If this isn’t his time, Chavez will still almost certainly return to the Jays’ bullpen at some point this season. When that happens, I’ll be rooting for him. As a 42^nd-round pick for whom perseverance has meant more than even his pitching talents, Jesse Chavez is more like you and I than most players on your favourite team. Here’s hoping if his chance to start doesn’t come here, he’ll find an arm-starved team willing to give him a shot this winter.

STAT SHEET

Jesse Chavez, SP/RP
08/21/83            Bats: R             Throws: R       HT: 6-2          WT: 160
Victorville, California                    College: Riverside Community College
Drafted by Texas in the 42^nd round, 1252^nd overall, of the 2002 MLB Amateur Draft.
Acquired: Selected off waivers October 2011.
Contract Status: Not eligible for arbitration before 2013.
Salary: N/A
Service Time: 2.065