Lars Anderson should provide quality depth for the Toronto Blue Jays as he works to finally establish himself in the majors. (J. Meric/Getty Images)

Lars Anderson is the newest member of the Toronto Blue Jays organization, arriving on a waiver claim in late February. He’s a former top prospect who’s stalled out in the upper minors. But with David Cooper injured and Adam Lind’s effectiveness hardly guaranteed, there’s a chance Anderson could work his way back to the bigs this year. He’s still only 25.

PROFILE

Lars Anderson was selected by the Boston Red Sox in the 18^th round, 553^rd overall, of the 2006 amateur draft out of Jesuit High School in Carmichael, California. He’d played for the U.S. junior national team and was considered an early round talent. But most teams passed on him due to signability concerns stemming from an early commitment to the University of California (Berkeley). Under Theo Epstein’s ambitious draft management, the Red Sox managed to get Anderson under contract for sandwich-round money ($825,000), augmenting a successful class that also yielded Daniel Bard, Justin Masterson and Josh Reddick.

Anderson began his pro career the following season with the full-season Greenville Drive of the South Atlantic League. He attacked fastballs well and showed precocious pitch recognition skills as well as excellent patience. He played 124 games, hitting .288/.385/.443 with an impressive 35 doubles, 10 home runs, 69 RBI and a striking 112/71 SO/BB ratio. He was still a teenager but one demonstrating skills well beyond his years. He also received a brief taste of high-A with the California League’s Lancaster JetHawks and tore the cover off the ball (.343/.489/.486) in the circuit’s cushy hitting environs. He was surging up prospect charts and looked to be worth every penny of his draft bonus.

He began 2008 back in Lancaster but the league couldn’t hold him for long. In 77 games, he slugged .317/.408/.513 with 19 doubles and 13 home runs, driving in 50 and registering a strong 64/46 SO/BB. Promoted to the Eastern League’s Portland Sea Dogs in July, Anderson obliterated his first taste of AA, swatting .316/.436/.526 with 13 doubles, 5 home runs, 30 RBI and incredible patience (43/29 SO/BB) over a 41-game trial. All told, he’d put up a .317/.417/.517 slash line with 32 doubles and 18 home runs and extraordinary control (107/75 SO/BB) for a developing power bat. He reached base in 36 of his 41 AA games, producing a .926 OPS at the level as a 20-year old. His strikeout rate (26.4%) rose after the promotion but so, too, did his walks (17.8%). It looked like he was on the fast-track to stardom. The only real caveat in his profile lurked in his unbelievable BABIPs. He’d registered crazy numbers in the category at every stop of his career – but his .430 AA mark was never going to hold up over a full season. Still, Anderson had done more than enough to earn Red Sox Minor League Offensive Player of the Year honours and clearly rated as one of the truly elite prospects in baseball. His luck only looked like something to keep an eye on.

Boston hoped Anderson could build upon his AA success by spending all of 2009 back in Portland and he got off to a solid, if not spectacular, start as the league adjusted to him. But in the second half, Anderson regressed to an almost unbelievable level, hitting just .154 with one home run and 9 RBI over his last 40 games. It was an unconscionable collapse. Many wondered if he was playing hurt and, indeed, his season ended early due to back soreness and hamstring problems. But were they the sole cause of such prolonged misery? In 119 total games, Anderson was left with a line of just .233/.328/.345, 23 doubles, 9 home runs, 51 RBI and a souring 114/63 SO/BB rate. His line drive rate sunk from 19.9% to just 13%. And, indeed, his luck completely ran out, sending his BABIP plunging from .430 to a more credible .292. Had playing hurt cost him half a season of development time? Or did his first real bout of failure send him crumbling under expectations that he was supposed to be the Red Sox first baseman of the future? With Anthony Rizzo climbing quickly behind him, Anderson now faced an uncertain path.

Shaken by his awful finish, Boston had little choice but to return Anderson to Portland in 2010. He responded like it’d never happened, hitting an extraordinary .355/.408/.677 with 5 home runs in 17 games. His health was assured, it was clear his approach was still intact and Boston quickly promoted him to the AAA Pawtucket Red Sox. There, he seemed to fall in somewhere between his two extremes, hitting .262/.340/.428 with 32 doubles, 10 home runs, 53 RBI and a mediocre 109/44 SO/BB ratio the rest of the way. On one hand, his gap strength and patience had returned to wicked effect. On the other, he was now struggling mightily against southpaws and still only hitting .262 with below average home run power. He received a late promotion to Boston, making his major league debut against the Tampa Bay Rays. But Anderson would only get into 18 games while hitting a soft .200/326/.229. More adjustments were still necessarily. He would enter 2011 at age 23 ticketed again for AAA. Still young enough to develop more power and restore his prospect standing. But old enough now that questions about his ultimate power ceiling wouldn’t go away. He’d earned a reputation as smart and hard working. But there were rumblings that he sometimes put too much pressure on himself, extending slumps when things weren’t going well. That winter, Boston traded Rizzo as part of a package for Adrian Gonzalez. Anderson now appeared blocked and could only prepare for a return engagement in the International League awaiting an opportunity, most likely in another organization.

The Red Sox had little choice but to send him back to the International League and hope for the best. Instead, Anderson gave them more of the same. He played 93 games, hitting .259/.359/.415 with 22 doubles, 9 HRs, 52 RBI and a 89/56 SO/BB. Injuries to Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury helped him back to the show for a week in April. But when Kevin Youkilis got hurt in May, Will Middlebrooks was up and Anderson was history. At the deadline, he was traded to the Cleveland Indians for right-handed knuckleballer Steven Wright, capping a disappointing end to Anderson’s Red Sox career. He couldn’t break the Cleveland lineup, either, even with injuries and ineffectiveness sidelining Matt LaPorta and Travis Hafner. Instead, they rolled with Casey Kotchman’s flailing ghost all the way to a 68-win season. Anderson was stuck manning first in AAA for the Columbus Clippers – and he was awful, hitting a meagre .196/.319/.286 with 5 doubles, no home runs and a 18/9 SO/BB in 18 games. There were now real doubts about whether he’d ever be able to establish himself as a major league regular. In December, he was sent packing again as part of a three-team trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks and Cincinnati Reds featuring Trevor Bauer and Shin-Soo Choo. Anderson looked like little more than a depth piece and, by February, found himself on waivers, then claimed by the Chicago White Sox. His time as a south-sider lasted only three weeks before they waived him, too. In need of first base depth and sensing a buy-low opportunity, the Blue Jays claimed Anderson and invited him to spring training.

OUTLOOK

For all the dreams that Lars Anderson may one day revive his stagnating career, at this point, it appears this is what he is. A guy very much like David Cooper. In Toronto, that may actually make Anderson useful to have around. This winter, Toronto lost Mike McDade to Cleveland. Then Cooper was unable to report to camp because of a back injury that now threatens to derail his season. That leaves the Blue Jays awfully thin at first base in the upper minors. Given Adam Lind is the incumbent DH, depth may prove to be a valuable commodity. Anderson’s spot on the 40-man is hardly secure. And he’ll slot in behind Anthony Gose, Moises Sierra and Josh Thole on the list of probable call-ups biding their time in Buffalo. But if Lind’s conditioning or performance falters and Anderson gets off to a good start, we could see him in Toronto this summer.

It’s interesting that Anderson is essentially stepping into Cooper’s role on this Blue Jays team. After Anderson signed in Boston, Cooper ended up transferring to the University of California and starring there before being drafted by Toronto. Now, Anderson is part insurance plan, part cautionary tale about overvaluing prospect assets.

If he can regain the strike zone, he may end up putting together a decent season in the next few years. But to do it, he’ll need a major league opportunity he won’t likely find in Toronto.

STAT SHEET

Lars Anderson, 1B
09/25/87            Bats: L             Throws: L        HT: 6-4          WT: 215
Oakland, California                    High School: Jesuit (Sacramento, CA)
Drafted by Boston in the 18^th round, 553^rd overall, of the 2006 MLB Amateur Draft.
Acquired: Selected off waivers from the Chicago White Sox on February 25, 2013
Contract Status: Not eligible for arbitration before 2016.
Salary: $482,000
Service Time: 0.053

Expect Emilio Bonifacio to inject the Blue Jays offense with speed, dynamism and versatility in 2013. (Gregory Bull/Associated Press)

Less may be known about Emilio Bonifacio than the other members of the Toronto-bound Marlin Five. But he is a fascinating player. In Toronto, he may be arriving in an ideal environment to exploit his tools. The only questions involve health and opportunity. Let’s look at what kind of player Bonifacio is and how he’ll be deployed.

PROFILE

The Arizona Diamondbacks signed Emilio Bonifacio as an amateur free agent at the end of 2001. He stayed in his native Dominican in 2002, playing in the summer league for the DSL Diamondbacks. He came stateside in 2003 and debuted with the Missoula Osprey of the Pioneer League. It was a team oozing with raw talent, also featuring Carlos Gonzalez and Miguel Montero. But Bonifacio was only 18 and it showed. He hit just .199/.298/.219 in 54 games, showing great speed and a little patience. But he was badly overmatched. Playing exclusively second base he made 11 errors and showing average instincts.

Nonetheless, Arizona promoted him to the full-season South Bend Silver Hawks in 2004. Bonifacio overcame his rookie struggles, improving enough to stick in South Bend the whole season. He played 120 games and hit .260/.306/.319 with 40 stolen bases and a 122/25 SO/BB ratio. Pitchers didn’t hesitate to knock the bat out of his hands and his approach was clearly very raw. But Bonifacio was one of the youngest players in the league and was using his speed to get on more. His season was a quiet success.

But the chance to consolidate his gains couldn’t hurt. Arizona returned Bonifacio to the Midwest League in 2005 and he spent another full season with the team. Though his surface numbers were similar, he changed his game significantly at the plate. In 127 games, he hit .270/.341/.330 with 22 extra-base hits, a system-leading 55 steals and a dramatically-improved 90/56 SO/BB rate. His success on balls in play was purely driven by his blazing speed and though he would need to add strength as he moved up, it was heartening to see him utilize his greater tool to such effect.

In 2006, Arizona promoted Bonifacio to the high-A Lancaster JetHawks in the hitter-friendly California League. He flourished. In 130 games, he hit .321/.375/.449 with 35 doubles, 7 triples, 7 home runs and a 104/44 SO/BB ratio. He also ran wild under the tutelage of former speedster Brett Butler, swiping 61 bases in 75 tries. He led the league in steals and was named a California League All-Star. He continued to play exclusively at the keystone but piled up his third-consecutive 20+ error season. He was capable at second but many wondered if he’d eventually be better suited for super-utility work. He was still just 21 and held no shortage of intrigue. The question was whether his bat would stand up in AA.

He was given the chance to prove it in 2007, advancing to the Mobile BayBears of the Southern League. He put up a decent line overall, hitting .285/.333/.352 with 28 XBH, 41 stolen bases and a 105/38 SO/BB in 132 games, now splitting his time between second and shortstop. He again led the league and system in steals. But he’d also crossed the century mark for strikeouts, a no-no for speedsters with groundball tendencies. Walking more – or even putting the ball in play – would invariably help his cause. Still, Arizona rewarded his quality campaign with a late-season call-up, utilizing his speed and versatility down the stretch. He played in just 11 games but got his first hit off Tim Lincecum and put up a .217/.333/.261 line. Up on the big club, Orlando Hudson, Stephen Drew and Mark Reynolds were all reasonably young and established. So Bonifacio would have to earn his roster spot as a reserve. Probably using some time at AAA to refine all aspects of his game.

That’s where Bonifacio began 2008 as a 23-year old with the Tucson Sidewinders of the Pacific Coast League. The hard infields and elevated locales were a perfect match for his skills and Bonifacio hit .302/.348/.387 in 85 games. He managed a tolerable 64/27 SO/BB rate and chipped in 17 steals. The Diamondbacks recalled him in July to help replace the injured Eric Byrnes but the Snakes only started Bonifacio twice in three weeks and he struggled: .167/.167/.250. Following a 90-win season, Arizona sat two games below .500 a week before the trade deadline and decided to trade Bonifacio to the Washington Nationals for reliever Jon Rauch.

The Nationals started Bonifacio in AAA with the Columbus Clippers of the International League. But he didn’t give them the chance to keep him there long, hitting .452/.500/.516. The Nationals quickly released Felipe Lopez at the start of August, promptly installing Bonifacio at the top of their order as a second baseman. Washington’s lineup was as ugly as you’ll see. And Bonifacio held the job until season’s end, playing 41 games and hitting .248/.305/.344. He managed 5 triples but only 6 steals and just a 41/14 SO/BB rate. (Nats fans, there is a silver lining: all those bad lineups would yield a return of Stephen Strasburg the following April). Bonifacio spent his winter winning the Caribbean World Series with Tigres de Licey and appeared to have the inside track on Washington’s keystone entering 2009. But the Nationals were keen to make any upgrades available to them – and forgive me if you’ve heard this before – the Florida Marlins were shedding payroll. The result sent Bonifacio to south beach, with two prospects, for pitcher Scott Olsen and slugging outfielder Josh Willingham. Bonifacio had now been traded twice in just four months and it was unclear what role he would play on an emerging young Marlins team featuring the cheap, controllable talents of Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez in the middle of the diamond.

Bonifacio helped make the Marlins’ decision for them with a strong spring and an unforgettable Opening Day. He led off against his old Nationals teammates, playing third base, and went 4 for 5 with his first major league home run – an inside the park job, no less – and three stolen bases. Bonifacio was electric. And the Marlins looked like they had their future table-setter. He had 14 hits in the season’s first five games and seemed ready to take the league by storm, even if his defense at third was sub par.

Of course, the league eventually caught up to Bonifacio and although he spent the entire season in the majors, much of it was forgettable after opening week. All told, he hit .252/.303/.308 with just 18 XBH – including that lone home run – plus 21 steals and a 95/34 SO/BB ratio. He also showed a dreadful split, irritating lefties to no end (.315/.340/.364) but flailing badly against right-handers (.218/.284/.275). His playing time ultimately diminished in the second half along with his OPS (.628 vs. .560). The Marlins were in the hunt for the playoffs and their acquisition of Nick Johnson from Washington at the deadline shifted Jorge Cantu from first to third base, pushing Bonifacio into a reserve role. The playoffs never happened. Now, entering 2010, Bonifacio could only hope to make his mark as a reserve – but he had to make the team first.

He did, barely, and seldom got onto the field in two weeks before being dispatched to the AAA New Orleans Zephyrs. There, Bonifacio got back to his usual game, hitting for a passable average and getting on a bit. But he wasn’t driving the ball well or running enough to push those ahead of him. Florida recalled him in June after designating Mike Lamb for assignment. But he was firmly stuck behind Uggla and Ramirez, mostly serving as a pinch-runner. When he again saw regular duty in the fall, nothing about his numbers suggested it should continue. In 73 games, he hit .261/.320/.328 with just 9 extra-base hits and a 74 OPS+. He was useful for his speed and versatility, swiping 12 bags without getting caught, while filling in at 6 positions (2B,SS,3B,LF,CF,RF). Of course, he was also cheap. Giving the Marlins a prototypical super sub to call on in the late innings.

That’s how he started 2011 but it wasn’t long until injuries opened the door for more playing time and Bonifacio seized on it with an exhilarating career season. He played a career-high 152 games, swatting 26 doubles, 7 triples, 5 (!) home runs and chipping in 36 RBI on his way to a striking .296/.360./393 line, a 107 OPS+ and a 26-game hitting streak on his way to earning National League Player of the Month honours in July. He also nicked 40 bases against just 11 times caught, finishing as the NL’s second-best thief behind Michael Bourn. Bonifacio did all this while again filling in at those same six positions, logging significant time in left, centre, third and short. He still struck out a lot (129 times) for a leadoff man, but his walk rate spiked, too (8.5%). He still showed vastly better results against southpaws (.333/.407/.456) but raised his line against righties enough (.286/.347/.377) to justify play in all situations. Significantly, he also stayed healthy while others around him fell off. His versatility remained a huge asset but his bat now made him worth slotting in regularly. Bonifacio was just entering his age 27 season and appeared primed to begin his prime as a dynamic weapon in the Florida attack.

Miami’s offseason overhaul left no room for Bonifacio in the infield but he remained a fit in centre and started there Opening Day batting between Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez. Pretty desirable real estate. Through seven weeks, Bonifacio was reaching base (.351) and had a clean 20-for-20 stolen base count. But then he jammed his thumb nabbing second and landed on the disabled list for the first time in his career. The injury would cost him 46 games and later become re-aggravated in August. A week after finally returning, he sprained his right knee and was shut down for the season. His splits show a clear tale of two seasons: the healthy first half (.268/.351/.315) and the injury-ravaged summer (.242/.294/.316). He still managed 30 steals against only 3 time caught. And, for the first time in his career, his platoon splits were reversed (.506 OPS vs. LHP, .726 OPS vs. RHP). It was obviously a campaign marred by poor health. Incredibly, his speed still made him valuable even when his other tools were ravaged.

In November, he arrived in Toronto as perhaps the least heralded member of the Marlin Five. But a promising, versatile talent entering his age 27 season just one year removed from a breakout.

OUTLOOK

Though his name value pales in comparison to the headliners arriving in Toronto, Bonifacio possesses a great deal of value. It’s really hard not to be excited about what he brings to the table. World-class speed. A refined aggression on the basepaths that makes him one of the game’s most effective thieves. Incredible versatility. And functional switch-hitting, particularly against southpaws. As he enters what should be the prime of his career, he is under team control for two full seasons. He’s being given the opportunity to compete for the team’s second base job with Maicer Izturis (a switch-hitter who profiles better against righties) and should be very effective on Rogers Centre’s artificial surface as well as rolling over the lineup, pressure-free from the ninth position.

For Bonifacio, it’s practically a dream scenario. Expect him to become an instant fan favourite. Even if he doesn’t win a starting role outright, it’s hard to imagine Brett Lawrie and Jose Reyes playing 162 games. So I expect we’ll see long stretches with Bonifacio in the starting nine, particularly with Rajai Davis still on hand to serve as the team’s late-inning base-stealing ace. I anticipate Bonifacio will endure a few bumps and bruises. Errors in the field are to be expected, too. But don’t be surprised if he becomes a sparkplug extraordinaire and plays 120+ games with 35 steals and a .270/.339/.355 line.

Come playoff time, this is a guy Blue Jays’ fans will be glad to have on the bench.

STAT SHEET

Emilio Bonifacio, IF/OF
04/23/85            Bats: S             Throws: R       HT: 5-11        WT: 205
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
Signed: By the Arizona Diamondbacks as an amateur free agent December 27, 2001
Acquired: Trade with Miami Marlins on November 19, 2012
Contract Status: Third-time arbitration eligible in 2014. Eligible for free agency in 2015
Salary: $2,600,000
Service Time: 4.006

The New York Times has spoken.

So, too, have Jayson Stark, Rob Neyer, David Schoenfield, Joe Posnanski and countless others. We can all agree it’s going to be a long, quiet summer in Cooperstown, New York.

I reacted to the shutout thrown by the Baseball Writers of America in this year’s Hall of Fame voting with a mixture of resignation and sadness. Were none of the players of my youth worthy of a place in the museum of the sport I love? Of course they were. Call it what you will. I’ve heard it dubbed ‘deferral.’ A strong ‘reaction.’ A ‘stand.’

I call it ignorance. A decision by many who observed, studied, and reported on things that happened in an era of baseball where revenues, player salaries and fan interest grew exponentially to shun the very individuals who lifted the game. I do not condone or agree with many of the personal choices made by some during this time. But, like it or not, it happened. The sooner we can at some rough consensus around that obvious fact, the better.

Obviously, TheRichardandMartin does not have a place within the BBWAA nor a vote for the Hall of Fame. But, if we did, here’s what our ballot would look like:

1. Jeff Bagwell

The whole package. One of the greatest first basemen ever. And one of the most unique – both on the field and the stat sheet. The crazy stance; Bagwell, perched atop an invisible 3-foot stool, with his total concentration and slight, hypnotic bat waggle. He hit 30 home runs nine times. 449 total. He also stole 202 bases. Twice more than 30 in one season. That’s two 40/30 seasons – from a first baseman. He was never especially fleet of foot but earned a reputation as an incredible baserunner. Walked more than he struck out 4 times. Anf if he hadn’t broken his left hand in three consecutive seasons (1993, 1994, 1995), his numbers would be even greater. Despite this, he managed one of the best offensive seasons of all-time in 1994, hitting .368/.451/.750 with 39 home runs and 116 RBI – in 110 games. He owns a pile of hardware: an MVP (and one runner-up), a Gold Glove, a Rookie of the Year. 4 All-Star games. Bagwell got 59.6% of the vote this year. His day will come. But he belongs now.

A personal note: he was hands down my favourite player to watch as a kid. And in the early 90s – in southwestern Ontario – finding out-of-market Astros games was no easy feat.
He made it worth the effort every time.

2. Craig Biggio

He, too, should be a lock. In a perfect world, he’d enter the Hall with Bagwell to his left, the same way they spent so many Houston summers. Hopefully in 2014. Biggio is the only player to ever play 50 games at catcher, second base and centre field. He played 250 at each.

2850 games – all with the Astros. 3060 hits. 668 doubles. 291 home runs. 414 stolen bases. 4 Gold Gloves. 7 All Star selections. Hit by 285 pitches (good for second all-time – no other active player is even close), including 34 times in 1997 while he was also hitting .309/.415/.501 with 67 extra-base hits and 47 stolen bases. That will never happen again. Also won the silver slugger as a catcher and second baseman. Durable as the flu. Played 160 games five times. 150 eleven times. His case compares favourably to Robin Yount’s – a no-doubt, first-ballot Hall guy. Or, not.

3. Mike Piazza

The greatest offensive catcher in history. And depending upon how you value catcher defense, he has an argument as one of the three best of all-time. A career .308 hitter. With a career .377 on-base. He hit 427 home runs while never striking out more than 93 times. Finished with a 143 OPS+. He played in 12 All-Star games. Won 10 Silver Sluggers. The Rookie of the Year. Twice he was the runner-up for MVP (with four top five finishes). Even though his glove and arm were average or worse, his bat played behind the plate for a long time – 1630 games. And, of course, his legend began as a 62nd round draft pick – 1390th overall in a year where 1433 players were picked – as a favour to his father by Dodgers manager Tommy Lasorda.

And he makes up one half of one of the great World Series confrontations of all time.

4. Roger Clemens

I never truly enjoyed watching Roger Clemens pitch. I marvelled at what he could do in his 20s, 30s and 40s but never really savoured it. His personality precluded that – even when I was a 12-year old Blue Jays fan. More recently, his bulldog tenacity has been on display as he’s fought to clear his name. Many of us have observed that fight with cynicism. But today I find myself hoping that Clemens will now put on a Houston Astros uniform this summer and, in the process, reboot his Hall of Fame eligibility. Give everyone another 5 years to negotiate this mess and see his achievements with fresh eyes.

Because what’s happening right now is insane. Keeping Clemens out of the Hall of Fame is like keeping the T-Rex out of a natural history museum. It doesn’t matter if the other dinosaurs don’t like him. He belongs.

354 wins. 4672 strikeouts.  118 complete games. 46 shutouts. Won 20 four times.  Struck out the third-highest number of batters in history. Led his league in strikeouts 5 times. Twice k’d more than 290 in a season. Soared over 200 twelve 12 times. Dominated at 22. Then again at 42. Won 7 Cy Youngs and probably should’ve gotten 10. He led his league in pitching WAR in three separate years he didn’t win. Won the MVP. Excellent numbers in the World Series. Pitched in 6 of them. Won twice. 11 All-Star games. But his other numbers loom larger.

The 6 felony counts and one federal grand jury. Who inconveniently found him not guilty.

5. Barry Bonds

Unequivocably guilty in the court of public opinion. Also convicted for obstructing justice and sentenced to 30 days house arrest, pending an appeal. Carried some of the coldest shoulders in modern baseball history. Would not make the Hall of Nice Guys. Did he walk away from kids seeking a fleeting moment? Did he ever do anything for someone other than himself? Did he add impurity to the game?

We know the answers to these questions. But we must also demand another, less pleasant, ask of ourselves: Does it matter?

He holds the single season home run record. He holds the career home run record. What he did happened. Baseball did nothing to stop anything Barry Bonds did from happening. It knew who he was. And when it finally decided he wasn’t worth the trouble, his career was prematurely finished. He was blackballed. And did little to fight that. But he is not Lance Armstrong. His records stand. All of his incredible statistics remain intact. And there are no asterisks on the books. His reputation will never be redeemed.

Indeed, each voter must decide individually. But I cannot look past the numbers. 7 MVPs. 8 Gold Gloves. 762 home runs. 2558 walks. 688 of them intentional. (Buck Showalter used to walk him with the bases loaded). 514 stolen bases. The .298/.444/.607 season. The 182 OPS+. The 2227 runs. The 5976 total bases. Career numbers, all. Single season? 73 home runs. 232 walks. 52 steals. Career highs of ..370/.609/.863 and 1.422. A 268 OPS+. I could not withhold a vote for that.

6. Tim Raines

The second-best leadoff hitter of his time. If it weren’t for Rickey Henderson, he’d stand alone. Early in his candidacy, his vote totals suffered because Raines spent many of his best years in siberian Montreal. Now, he serves as a beautiful example of what time can do to further mass understanding. He is Tony Gwynn with better base-stealing skills:

Which player would you rather have? They both work for me. But Raines lacks most of Gwynn’s gaudy hardware. He earned 7 All-Star selections, yes, but just 1 batting title and 1 Silver Slugger. Of course, there are the 4 consecutive stolen base crowns and lifetime 84.7% success rate. He is one of the best pure basestealers of all time. And, boy, could he get on base.

In 6 years, he’s gone from 24.3% of the vote to 52.2%. He’ll get there yet.
He should wear an Expos cap when he does.

7. Larry Walker

A tough selection in some respects. The Canadian is mostly remembered for his spectacular all-around play for the fledgling Colorado Rockies. At his peak, Walker was one of the most complete players in the sport. An incredible, powerful hitter, disciplined and patient. He was also an excellent baserunner and played a strong right field buoyed by a cannon arm. Look at his batting line from 1997: .366/.452/.720, 208 hits, 46 doubles, 49 home runs, 130 RBI, 33 stolen bases. Of course, he won the NL MVP. Two years later, he hit .379. Throw in 3 batting titles, 5 All-Star games and 7 Gold Gloves. On the strengths of his peak seasons alone, he should be enshrined. There are just two problems with his candidacy. Health and his home park.

Walker couldn’t stay on the diamond. That summer of ’97 is the only year he played 150 games. Four times he played 100 games or fewer. And by 38, despite still being a very effective hitter (.289/.384/.502), he was finished. Plus, though it’s obviously not his fault, much of Walker’s prime was spent in the unspeakably cozy confines of pre-Humidor Coors Field. And, yes, his career splits are insane:

Home: .348/.431/.637
Road: .278/.370/.495

But he remains such a dynamic and complete player that his splits and lack of some massive counting stats (2160 hits, 383 home runs – but 913 (!) walks) don’t diminish his star for me. He’s a Hall of Famer.

8. Edgar Martinez

Martinez’s case is actually quite simple. He is one of the most clearly defined players on the ballot. Never an MVP. Rarely played the field and, when he did, he was brutal. Ran poorly and treated the bases like watering stations. Edgar Martinez was, quite simply, was one of the truest hitters to ever play the game. A savant with incredible hands and unbending disciplined. He was dangerous only in the batters box. But there he elevated his craft to a creative art.

He won two batting titles. Made 7 All-Star teams. Brought the Kingdome to its feet. Then, as a lifelong Mariner, mastered Safeco. Before they brought the fences in. Edgar Martinez swung at bad pitches as often as Pedro Martinez threw them. He, too, lost time to injury – playing in fewer than 100 games three times. And he was already a late-bloomer – his poor defense kept him from reaching the majors in earnest until he was 27. But for the next decade, all he did was hit. I do not hold Martinez’s lack of position against him. Plenty of guys in the Hall spent considerable time as designated hitters. Managers could have asked him to play first base. Martinez could have done it (poorly) but justified himself as a fielder. He didn’t. I don’t care. Like Walker, his peak was so impressive, his career .312/.418/.515 line, 309 home runs, 514 doubles and 1202/1283 SO/BB rate too hard to mute.

9. Alan Trammell

Two shortstops of Trammell’s era are already in, feeding the perception that because his offense was secondary to Cal’s and his defence a rung below Ozzie’s, Trammell was not a worthy talent. He is. His 1987 should have won him the MVP: .343/.402/.551, 28 home runs, 105 RBI in a year he struck out 47 times. He also stole 21 bases in 23 tries. But the career numbers also meet any Hall standard for shortstops. Trammell hit .300 seven times and finished with a strong .285/.352/.415 line. In the field, he won 4 Gold Gloves with a knack for beating baserunners to first by half a step. Every time.

Unfortunately, Trammell fell off after an extraordinary 1993 campaign and barely scratched through his last three, injury-riddled seasons. His legacy wasn’t helped by managing three terrible Tigers teams, including one that lost 119 games. But that’s how Trammell was. Giving his teammates and the Tigers organization everything he had and then trying to give them more. Even when he no longer could. For fun, ask any Detroit Tigers fan from the 80s if they’d have traded Trammell for Ozzie Smith. That’s not a reason to vote for Trammell. But it’s a good reminder of what he meant to those teams. His World Series performance helps, too.

10. Sammy Sosa

Looking at the 10 players I selected, Sosa was the hardest decision on the ballot. But, why? The man hit 609 home runs. Three times he hit 60 in a season. He stole 234 stolen bases. He was an MVP, 7-time All Star and 6-time Silver Slugger. He more than earned his reputation as a wild swinger with 2306 career strikeouts, enough for third all-time. He took some mean hacks. But he still managed 929 career walks, even if 154 were intentional. He finishes with a career line of .273/.344/.534. His peak lasted 13 years with the Cubs and amounts to a robust .284/.358/.569. In 1994, he helped bring baseball back. And in the great chase of Roger Maris, he was the people’s choice; the underdog everyone wanted to see keep pace with Mark McGwire. In 2003, he did everything possible to help bash the Cubs to the World Series. That was the fall of Steve Bartman. After that, Sosa could do no right on the north side. A year later, he was gone.

It’s sad to see how Sammy Sosa is remembered. As a suspect. One who got away. Thanks to one published report of a positive steroid test, never confirmed by the league, and one appearance before Congress. During which he adamantly denied steroid use. He was not named in the Mitchell Report. This year, his first on the ballot, he received 12.5% of the vote. Yes, McGwire has endured a similar lack of support for years now. With these numbers, neither will ever get in. Though Sosa only hit 26 more career home runs, he stuck around longer than McGwire and was far more durable. For me, that’s enough.

Final Thoughts

With this year’s election shutout, baseball’s writers have rendered themselves, and the Hall of Fame, irrelevent. That’s a real shame. Sure, I’ll always know about the players listed here and on other ballots. But their chances to be selected are not unlimited.

The pregnant ballot only gets bigger next year with the additions of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Mike Mussina, Frank Thomas and Jeff Kent. If I could ask that this year’s empty stand could lead to one change in the process, it would not be to end lifetime enrollment or to extend player windows. I would ask the Hall of Fame to publish writers’ ballots. Let them stand behind their selections. Of course, I’d also eliminate the arbitrary 10 vote cut-off. I could have voted for 15 players here: Curt Schilling, Fred McGriff, Kenny Lofton, Bernie Williams and Steve Finley. The first two deserve it now. The final three to keep them on the ballot for future consideration. All had stellar careers. And centre fielders are so often overlooked.

That is another great failing of this year’s wasted vote. Lofton, Williams and Finley did not secure enough votes to receive future consideration and are eliminated now for all time.

It wasn’t enough to keep everyone out of baseball’s shrine. Some voters needed to make it a double shame.

Meet the man who may possess the nastiest arm on the Toronto Blue Jays staff, Steve Delabar. (Anthony Bolante/Reuters).

Five months ago, the Toronto Blue Jays traded their starting left fielder for Steve Delabar. It was a bold acquisition. Delabar was a year out of A-ball and about eighteen months removed from being out of the game altogether. In Toronto, he found his stride quickly, writing the next chapter in what’s already an incredible story of perseverance. Let’s look at his background as we try to determine how big a role he can assume in the Blue Jays’ new-look bullpen.

PROFILE

The Anaheim Angels drafted Steve Delabar in the 43^rd round, 1283^rd overall, of the 2002 MLB Amateur Draft out of Volunteer State Community College in northern Tennessee. He chose not to sign and re-entered the draft in 2003 where he was selected by the San Diego Padres in the 29^th round, 851^st overall. In the same draft, the Padres selected Dirk Hayhurst with their eighth pick – 21 rounds and 630 picks before Delabar. If Hayhurst was the poster-boy for non-prospects, Delabar was the leaflet.

He didn’t begin his pro career immediately but eventually signed with San Diego in May 2004 as a draft-and-follow. He began his pro career with the Arizona League Padres before receiving a late promotion to the short-season Eugene Emeralds. He was used as a swingman and put up pretty pedestrian numbers between the two levels: 17 games, 9 of them starts, going 4-5, 3.90 in 62.1 innings with a 50/24 SO/BB ratio for a 7.2 K/9 with a 1.41 WHIP.

He spent all of 2005 starting in Eugene with similar results: 16 games, 4-6, 4.76 in 75.2 IP with a 59/18 SO/BB and a 1.35 WHIP. The only growth he showed was an improved walk rate. At age 22, Delabar was still in short-season ball and looked like he’d be lucky to hold on as organizational filler.

San Diego promoted him to the full-season Fort Wayne TinCaps in 2006 and he continued to hold his own but did little to stand out. In 27 starts, he went 8-9 with a 3.41 ERA in 145 IP with a 118/65 SO/BB and a 1.34 WHIP. He essentially survived by avoiding contact, surrendering a very good 8.0 H/9 and giving up just 8 home runs. But the result was a tremendous decline in his control and his walk rate surged from 2.1 BB/9 up to 4.0 BB/9. Guys like this fill the low minors for every team in baseball.

In 2007, the Padres converted him to relief with the high-A Lake Elsinore Storm. But Delabar struggled badly (2-6, 5.59, 29 IP, 33/16 SO/BB, 5.0 BB/9) in the brutal pitching environs of the California League and he was soon back in Fort Wayne. A forgotten man. Worse, he was absolutely shelled, with a 5.96 ERA and 48/46 SO/BB rate in 21 games and 68 IP. The walks worsened further (to a brutal 5.8 BB/9) and cost him time and again. It was a dreadful campaign. The only upside in his stat line was his 10.2K/9 rate as a reliever with Lake Elsinore. But he was now 24 and failing against A-ball competition. His place in the organization and, indeed, his baseball future was now in jeopardy.

The Padres gave him one last chance to hold onto a job in the Fort Wayne bullpen in 2008. But he sprained an ankle in April and, when he wasn’t hurt, disappointed on the mound: 11 games, a 5.27 ERA, in 13.2 innings with a 12/5 SO/BB rate and a 1.61 WHIP. The Padres finally cut him loose in May. No one else took a chance on him, either. Delabar did manage to catch on briefly with the Florence Freedom of the Frontier League and then the Brockton Rox of the independent Canadian-American Association. But his path back to organized baseball was now obscured and any prospects of realizing his major league dream were dim.

Delabar returned to Broxton in 2009 but his season ended in ruin. He suffered a fractured right elbow requiring the insertion of a steel plate and nine screws in the elbow to stabilize it. It was a serious arm injury and the recovery would also cost him the entire 2010 season. To most, it appeared Delabar’s baseball career was over.

Unable to play competitively, he returned home to Kentucky to work as a substitute teacher. The only game he could get into was a local slow pitch softball league. Hilariously Obscure Trivia Alert: Delabar won the 2010 Louisville Invitational Tournament’s Home Run Derby. He also began a velocity improvement program to learn tools that he thought might benefit the students he was teaching. But the experiment started working on him. With an emphasis on gaining strength and arm speed, Delabar soon found he could consistently dial his velocity up to 93 MPH – a huge leap from his earlier 89. He soon found he could touch 96. It was an incredible piece of rehab training. That’s when the instructor, Joe Newton, reached out to the Seattle Mariners to secure Delabar a tryout. His rehab complete, Delabar convinced the Mariners he was worth a minor league contract. It was April and the season had already started but Delabar was now back in organized ball almost three years after being cut.

Seattle started him back in the California League with the High Desert Mavericks. Given his injury history, he would now be used strictly as a reliever. Delabar was about to turn 28 and facing college juniors. But he cleared the mental hurdles of returning from surgery and held his own, pitching in 7 games with a 4.38, 20/8 SO/BB line in 12.1 IP. His control was poor but the Mariners took note of the 14.6 SO/9 rate and promoted him quickly to the AA Jackson Generals of the Southern League. There he threw in 23 games and went 1-3, 2.05 in 30.2 innings with an alarming 30/26 SO/BB rate. His K/9 dipped expectedly and his walk rate was now surging to an untenable 7.6 BB/9. Seattle promoted him again, anyway, this time to the AAA Tacoma Rainiers of the Pacific Coast League. Something clicked. 10 games, 1-1, 0.69 in 13 IP with an 18/6 SO/BB. He looked like a new pitcher.

The Mariners rewarded those results by calling him up when rosters expanded in September. He debuted at home against Kansas City with a scoreless inning and two strikeouts then won his first game three days against the New York Yankees. In all, he got into 6 games, going 1-1, 2.57, 7 IP with a 7/4 SO/BB rate. It was an extraordinary season. The kind TV movies are written about. After shipping bullpen parts in summer trades, the Mariners were ready to pencil him into their retooled bullpen going into 2012. It tooks Delabar 9 years to get out of A-ball. Now, after all the pain and failure, he’d made it to the show in 6 months.

Delabar made the Mariners out of spring training and opened the season with the team in Japan. But his stayed only lasted until the end of May. His peripheral stats were very strong. But in two months, Delabar surrendered seven home runs in just 24.1 innings. Bullpen meltdowns were all-too-common for the 2012 Mariners and, coupled with the team’s impotent offence, fatal. Delabar was dispatched to Tacoma and rode the shuttle back and forth until the trade deadline, when Seattle traded him to the Toronto Blue Jays for outfielder Eric Thames. Most Blue Jays’ fans were more concerned with the simultaneous acquisition of Brad Lincoln (for fan favourite Travis Snider) and Delabar’s arrival flew under the radar. That didn’t last long.

He quickly became a favourite of manager John Farrell’s and even received a moment of national attention for becoming the first pitcher in major league history to strike out four batters in one extra inning (he’s also the only Blue Jay ever to strike out four batters in one frame) in August. His combined line was a career-high 61 games, 4-3, 3.82 in 66 innings with a terrific 92/26 SO/BB ratio. In Toronto, Delabar managed to throw his fastball for quality strikes rather than pitches hitters could drive. It sets up a devastating splitfinger that’s a major weapon and is almost impossible for hitters to drive when located effectively. Delabar only gave up 3 home runs after arriving in Toronto and saw his strong strikeout rate leap to astronomical levels (11.3K/9 to 14.1 K/9). Despite a bit of comman regression, he still managed a 3.07 xFIP.

One of the reasons for his increased success is clearly his increased use of the splitter. Delabar threw just 60% fastballs in 2012 against almost 35% splitters – one of the highest rates in baseball. It’s particularly effective tailing away from left-handed hitters, which resulted in a .171/.246/.551 linefrom southpaws. He also features a toy slider with video game bite. But the pitch isn’t refined and he can at times struggle to control it. The 4-strikeout inning and 6 wild pitches show he’s not an easy pitcher to catch. When everything’s working, he’s even harder to hit. Delabar now appears poised to log important middle and late innings for the Blue Jays in 2013.

OUTLOOK

Steve Delabar enters 2013 as a potentially devastating weapon in the Blue Jays’ bullpen. Not many teams have the luxury of turning to a power arm with this kind of stuff in the middle innings. But if Casey Janssen is his usual, reliable self and Sergio Santos returns to health, that’s likely the role Toronto will use Delabar in. He’s not a sure bet. His struggles with command are well-documented. He must also keep the ball in the park and stay healthy.

But if Delabar can pick up where he left off, his acquisition will deserve to go down as one of the great under-the-radar moves of Alex Anthopoulos’ tenure. Very quietly, the reliever finished 2012 with the sixth-highest strikeout rate in baseball (min. 60IP). If you look at just his Toronto numbers, he jumps to third. Relievers come with no guarantees, but Delabar has a rare arm. He won’t be eligible for arbitration until at least 2015 and free agency until 2018. By then, he could be closing for someone or teaching again.

Delabar’s story makes him easy to root for. Here’s hoping it’s the former.

STAT SHEET

Steve Delabar, RP
07/17/83            Bats: R             Throws: R       HT: 6-5          WT: 220
Fort Knox, Kentucky                     College: Volunteer State (Gallatin, TN)
Drafted by San Diego in the 29^th round, 851^st overall, of the 2003 MLB Amateur Draft.
Acquired: Traded to Toronto on July 30, 2012.
Contract Status: Not eligible for arbitration before 2015.
Salary: $480,700
Service Time: 0.023

Kyle Drabek is off to a solid start in his sophomore season but remains very much a work in progress. He’s matured a great deal during his time with Toronto and, incredibly, ranks third in experience among current Blue Jays starters. His natural talent rates with the best arms in the organization. What Drabek still lacks is consistency. Let’s look at how the work Drabek’s put in this year matches up with his prospect history to see if he can achieve his full potential.

PROFILE

The Philadelphia Phillies drafted Kyle Drabek in the 1^st round, 18^th overall, of the 2006 amateur draft out of The Woodlands High School in the greater Houston area. He was teammates with Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. Drabek was incredibly athletic and, in addition to pitching, considered a highly regarded shortstop prospect, batting .443 and going 12-0 with a 1.18 ERA his senior year. He also caught over 1,000 yards and ran a 4.5 40-yard dash as a wide receiver as a junior. He is the son of former Cy Young Award winner Doug Drabek.

Kyle was one of the most obvious talents in the 2006 draft. But questions about his character caused his stock to fall. He was arrested for public intoxication as a 17=year old – Drabek denied guilt and charges were later dropped – and, later that year, crashed an SUV into a tree. When he slipped into the bottom half of the first round, the Phillies grabbed him, ecstatic to grab a consensus Top-10 talent so late in the first round. He was already capable of touching 97 mph on the radar gun and featured a plus curveball. Drabek signed quickly and started his career that summer with the Gulf Coast League Phillies.

It was a terrible beginning. Drabek made 6 starts and went 1-3, 7.71, with 33 hits allowed in 23.1 innings and a 14/11 SO/BB rate. He was extremely hittable (12.7 H/9) and there were questions about his maturity on the mound. When he got in trouble things seemed to snowball out of control. Of course, Drabek was 18 years old. He’d have plenty of chances. Interestingly, the team also started him at DH three times – a further testament to his athleticism.

In 2007, he started the season with the low-A Lakewood Blue Claws and fared much better. He made 10 starts, pitching to a 5-1, 4.33 line with a 46/23 SO/BB rate and a dramatically improved 8.3 H/9 in 54 innings. But Drabek blew out his right elbow that June and required Tommy John surgery a month later. Even with the modern success rate for the operation somewhere around 95%, it was a huge blow for his development and promised to keep Drabek off a mound for a year. Just as he was now showing signs of high quality stuff, improved makeup and, for the first time, earning praise for his preparation. It was a tough break for a teenager. Drabek was still just 19.

He spent much of 2008 regaining his arm strength and confidence before getting back on the mound for a late-season rehab assignment with the GCL Phillies. Just getting into games was a victory. Many observers felt he might miss the entire season. Better yet, Drabek looked almost like his old self. In August, the Phillies promoted him to the low-A Williamsport Crosscutters and he made 4 starts there, going 1-2, 2.21 in 20.1 innings with a 10/6 SO/BB rate and an extraordinary 4.9 H/IP. He was still regaining his best stuff. But Drabek now seemed poised to resume his career as one of the Phillies’ top pitching prospects. It was easy to be optimistic about his chances but he’d yet to put together a full season of positive results without injury and there were no guarantees about his future.

Entering 2009, Philadelphia considered Drabek advanced enough to jump to the high-A Clearwater Threshers. He proved up to the task. In 10 starts, Drabek went 4-1, 2.48, 61.2 IP and a dominating 74/19 SO/BB ratio. His tenth start was a complete game shutout that convinced the Phillies brain trust he was ready for AA. Drabek adapted quickly there, too, pitching 15 games for the Reading Phillies and going 8-2, 3.64 with a 76/31 SO/BB in 96.1 innings. It was a breakthrough season. Drabek earned his way into the Futures Game, dialing his velocity up to 96 mph for the occasion (though he still sat regularly between 92-94), and was named the Phillies’ minor league Pitcher of the Year. Significantly, he tweaked his mechanics to eliminate a hip turn in his follow through, keeping him on a straighter plane toward home plate. The adjustment paid off. Drabek was consistently hitting his spots, demonstrating increased maturity and now looked like a future top of the rotation starter. He’d responded to concerns about his durabiility by throwing 150+ innings and, though most observers felt his changeup and cutter could benefit from time at AAA, Drabek looked like he might be major league-ready within the year.

But the Phillies had just lost the World Series in six games to the New York Yankees and had designs on getting back to baseball’s biggest stage. Now. In December, they landed the one man in baseball most everyone believed could them there: Roy Halladay. The Phillies traded Drabek, Travis d’Arnaud and Michael Taylor to Toronto in the deal with Drabek immediately becoming the Blue Jays top prospect. But even the most optimistic and far-sighted Jays fans knew this was a win for Philadelphia. Halladay was the franchise. All they could hope was that, one day, Drabek could take his place atop the team’s rotation.

Toronto was rebuilding and refused to rush Drabek straight to the majors. They also wanted to protect him from the harsh hitting environment in AAA Las Vegas and instead assigned him to the AA New Hampshire Fisher Cats. Drabek was already proven at the level but remained consistent. 27 starts, 14-9, 2.94 in 162 innings with a 132/68 SO/BB ratio. He was tough to square up (.213 BAA, 7H/9) but lost some of his command. That said, he was still good enough to be named the Eastern League Pitcher of the Year, pace the circuit in wins and finish 3^rd in ERA, IP and SO while making the league’s mid-and-post-season All-Star teams. The highlight of his season came on July 4, against the New Britain Rock Cats, as he pitched a 98-pitch no-hitter – becoming the first Fisher Cat ever to accomplish the feat.

In September, the Blue Jays promoted him to the show and he made his debut in Baltimore. Drabek received three starts in total, going 0-3, 4.76 with a 12/5 SO/BB rate in 17 innings. He hadn’t set the league on fire. But he didn’t look out of place, either, and seemed to have little left to accomplish in the minors. Heading into 2011, Drabek looked ready to join the Blue Jays rotation with a good spring.

Drabek did more than that. He impressed in spring training, particularly with his flashy command (14/1 K/BB). With spring injuries to Brandon Morrow and Brett Cecil decimating the Blue Jays’ rotation, Drabek started the second game of the season and earned his first major league victory. He looked great. But as the calendar turned to May, Drabek fought his control with increasing futility, maxing out pitch counts early and limiting his effectiveness. During one meltdown against Cleveland he couldn’t make it out of the first inning. In 14 total starts, he pitched to a 4-5, 5.70 line, eventually pitching his way out of the rotation. Unfortunately, borderline calls and home runs had a way of getting under Drabek’s skin. He often became visibly frustrated and appeared to lack the poise of a regular starter. The Jays sent him to the Las Vegas 5s to work on his command and composure. Without question, he found the Cashman Field bandbox humbling. Drabek made 15 starts there, going 5-4 in 75 innings – but with a dreadful 7.44 ERA, 111 hits and an ugly 45/41 SO/BB ratio. He was a mess, surrendering 13.3H/9 and a brutal 2.03 WHIP. Splits were irrelevant. Everyone hit him. To his credit, Drabek kept battling. But it appeared his confidence was shot. Mercifully, Toronto recalled him in September but used him only as a long man in low-leverage situations. In addition to the maturity issues, Drabek had slipped into bad mechanical habits. He was now falling off the mound and deviating from the straightforward approach that had brought him success. He also struggled to locate his out pitch, a plunging spike curveball. The pitch typically finished out of the strike zone and after AL hitters got a look or two at, they learned to lay off, discovering it would routinely result in a ball. Drabek had no answer for this. The result was an abominable amount of walks (6.3BB/9) and a lot of hard lessons. Drabek was still in the Blue Jays’ plans. But he had a lot of work to do before Toronto would gift him another rotation slot. He entered 2012 on the outside of the rotation battle looking in.

OUTLOOK

Drabek capitalized on an opportunity to break camp with the team again this year and, so far, has mostly run with it. He’s less demonstrative and now seems to be in control of his emotions on the mound. Thanks to an unconventional bullpen regimen, he’s also had more success holding his pitching lane. In his first 6 starts, Drabek has only once allowed more than 2 runs. But, still, there are warning signs. He battles his control more than he commands it. Some nights, his struggles locating his four-seam fastball can result in the loss of the pitch altogether. Despite his tidy 3.34 ERA, his FIP currently sits at 5.29 – not far off last year’s abysmal 5.52. That’s a concern. Even if his xFIP is 4.23. He’s also been lucky. His BABIP is just .263. His strikeouts are up (7.2/9 from 5.83/9) and so are his ground balls (53.5% from 44.7%). But his walks (5.14/9) are still way too high. This will eventually catch up to Kyle.

I think he’ll turn a corner eventually. But I’m not sure it will be this season. I expect some gains but also periods of inconsistency and frustration. It is best that Drabek continues to work on his command at the major league level. It may be that all he needs are innings. I’m not sure he’ll ever live up to his pre-draft or prospect hype. But he can surely still enjoy a long career if he gets the walks under control. He reminds me of Brad Penny, a capable innings eater, prone to lapses in command, who sprinkled in a couple of All-Star seasons on the way to a successful career. John Lackey is another comparable who comes to mind. He could also be another Homer Bailey. Ultimately, it will come down to health and whether Drabek can harness his impressive stuff. It’s important to remember that he’s still only 24. You can bet he’ll get plenty of chances.

STAT SHEET

Kyle Drabek, SP
12/08/87            Bats: R             Throws: R       HT: 6-1          WT: 230
Victoria, Texas                         High School: The Woodlands (Woodlands, TX)
Drafted by Philadelphia in the 1^st round, 18^th overall, of the 2006 MLB Amateur Draft.
Acquired: Traded to Toronto on December 16, 2009
Contract Status: Eligible for arbitration in 2015.
Salary: $485,900
Service Time: 0.119

Rajai Davis returns for his second year with the Blue Jays in a new role as a reserve outfielder and pinch runner. Davis can be one of the most exciting players to watch in any game. But hitting limitations continue to hold him back. Interestingly, Davis hit well in his minor league career. Let’s look at his case to see what’s happened since – and whether there may still be more to his game than speed.

PROFILE

The Pittsburgh Pirates drafted Rajai Davis in the 38^th round, 1134^th overall, of the 2001 amateur draft out of the University of Connecticut. At the time, he was an extremely athletic switch-hitting (!) second baseman (!!) but Pittsburgh profiled him as a centre fielder due to his great range and plus speed. It was a tough draft for the Pirates. They chose injury bust John Van Benschoten 8^th overall and also selected Jeremy Guthrie and Stephen Drew but couldn’t convince either to sign. Davis, however, signed quickly and got started with the short-season Williamsport Crosscutters before a reassignment to the rookie-level Gulf Coast League Pirates. He played in 32 games, hitting .240/.345/.250 with just one double and a problematic 30/15 SO/BB ratio. The walks looked good, but the whiffs were untenable and Davis showed zero power. He stole 11 bases in 15 tries. But speed was the only interesting part of his game.

Davis returned to the GCL in 2002 and ripped: .384/.436/.554 with 16 doubles, 5 triples, 4 home runs, an excellent 25/20 SO/BB line and 24 steals in 58 games. He was named the GCL’s Player of the Year and Pittsburgh granted him a late promotion to the South Atlantic League champion Hickory Crawdads. On the surface, the numbers looked great. He’d reached base in 61 of his 65 total games. But, at 21, Davis was old for these levels, and doing most of his damage against teenage competition. Still, he’d put himself on the organizational map and now had a shot at becoming more than low-level roster filler.

In 2003, Davis spent the whole season with Hickory and excelled. In 125 games, he hit .303/.383/.416 with 21 doubles, 7 triples and 6 HRs, a very strong 65/55 SO/BB and 40 steals in 53 tries. The extra-base hits were easily a career high and he led the Crawdads in several offensive categories. He also had an impressive 15 outfield assists – an indication that his great range surprised many baserunners – but also made 7 errors. He still wasn’t turning many heads. But it was a second straight campaign of good results. In the offseason, Davis decided to stop switch-hitting and dedicate himself to hitting right-handed going forward.

Unless you spent 2004 watching a lot of Lynchburg Hillcats games, you’d have been hard-pressed to notice. Pittsburgh promoted Davis to its high-A affiliate and he rewarded them with a virtual replica of his previous season: 127 games, .314/.388/.424 with 27 doubles, 7 triples, 5 HRs, and a terrific 60/59 SO/BB rate. He won the Carolina League batting title, made it All-Star team, and led the circuit in runs, hits and steals. It was quite incredible considering he’d done the whole thing right-handed. Better yet, his steals spiked as Davis nabbed 57 bases against just 15 times caught. He showed no obvious platoon split (hitting .325 vs. LHP, .312 vs. RHP) and finally attracted real interest as a burner prospect and potential major league leadoff man. He made 8 errors but clearly had all the tools to handle centre field. Pittsburgh added him to its 40-man roster in the offseason but he was still behind Nate McLouth and Chris Duffy on the Pirates’ prospect chart and was only now entering AA at 24.

Davis arrived in AA in 2005, playing 123 games with the Altoona Curve. His slash line dipped slightly (.281/.351/.369) but he produced similar counting stats (22 2B, 4 3B, 4 HR) and was again named a league All-Star. Unfortunately, his SO/BB rate declined to 76/43 against tougher competition. Playable, certainly, but worth monitoring. He also saw his contact, walk and slugging rates slip, costing him almost 100 points of OPS. But he continued to improve his base stealing, taking 45 of 54 attempts – an excellent 83% theft rate – and leading the league in steals. He might have been even more prolific but Davis was hit by a pitch and fractured his right hand in August, ending his season early and potentially costing him a late call-up. Hes again contributed 10 outfield assists but, curiously, also made 10 errors. Most were the result of bad reads on fly balls that he couldn’t rescue despite his speed. Davis appeared to be a useful pest but not a true leadoff threat. He could handle centre and provide a spark. But it looked like advanced pitchers would knock the bat out of his hands if his approach didn’t improve. He got healthy in time to play winter ball with Guasave in the Mexican winter league. Pittsburgh had been very methodical with Davis. But he was now on the verge of the majors and looked ready to help in the right role.

In 2006, the Pirates assigned Davis to the AAA Indianapolis Indians. He started slowly but ultimately hit .283/.335/.348 in 100 games with a stagnating 59/27 SO/BB ratio. He showed minimal power and had to overcome a fractured right middle finger but stole 45 bases, seemingly determined to swipe his way to the show. When McLouth sprained his ankle in August, Davis finally got his call-up after six years in the minors. But the Pirates buried him on their bench, never letting him start a game, mostly using him as a pinch-runner. He received just 17 plate appearances and was caught stealing 3 times in 4 tries. Teams were ready for his wheels. Pittsburgh was unsettled in centre entering the offseason. Both McLouth and Duffy had disappointed in their trials. And Duffy was reportedly clashing with manager Jim Tracy. Some guy named Jose Bautista even played 57 games in the midfield in 2006. Entering 2007, it looked like Davis might have a chance to make the team with a good spring.

He didn’t make the opening day roster but provided real spark in his return to Indianapolis. In 53 games, he hit .318/.384/.469 with 20 extra-base hits and a dramatically improved 25/21 SO/BB ratio with 27 steals in 36 tries. Davis seemed to have overhauled his approach, resulting in better discipline and power. He was no longer a grip-and-rip type in the box and didn’t appear overmatched. Pittsburgh liked the adjustments and recalled him up in June. He’s been in the majors ever since. Davis started slowly, but Pittsburgh stuck with him and, this time, gave him regular at bats. In 24 games, he hit a capable .271/.357/.354. He was now particularly effective against lefties, and with Nyjer Morgan rising from AAA, looked ready to assume part of a capable, and very fleet-flooted, platoon. But Pittsburgh judged McLouth a more complete package. So despite a 42-62 record that put them 14.5 games out of first, the Pirates made a buyer’s move at the trade deadline, sending Davis and a player to be named (Stephen McFarland) to San Francisco for veteran starter Matt Morris. Morris was 32, an innings eater, and, significantly, had nothing left. Zero. He’d make 16 starts for Pittsburgh, going 3-8 with a 7.04 ERA and a 62 ERA+. Terrible stuff.

Davis started fast with the Giants, hitting .364 in his first 18 games, and received more opportunities in a straight platoon with Dave Roberts. In total, he went .282/.363/.380 with a good 25/14 SO/BB ratio and 17 steals in 21 tries, covering all kinds of ground in centre next to 42-year old Barry Bonds who was in the midst of what would be the last season of his polarizing career. Davis looked to have a home at last. But that offseason, in search of a new post-Bonds identity, the rebuilding Giants signed scrappy Gold Glove winner Aaron Rowand to play centre, effectively eliminating Davis’ role.

In 2008, Davis still made the team out of spring training but rarely played and landed on waivers in April. Oakland had witnessed his raw from across the Bay. With plans to embrace more athleticism in their lineup, they snapped Davis up and played him often. He got into 101 games but hit just .260/.288/.372 with little pop and a miserable 34/7 SO/BB rate – though he did manage 25 steals in 31 tries. Trouble was, Davis couldn’t buy his way on base and hit only .223 when used as a leadoff hitter. Once again he seemed useful only as a defensive replacement and pinch runner. He was a fringe major leaguer saved by one excellent, exploitable skill.

Or so it seemed until 2009. Davis began the season as Oakland’s fourth outfielder. But saw few opportunities. On June 2, he had 41 at-bats and was hitting .146 with no extra base hits. But injuries began to deplete the A’s brittle Oakland lineup and Davis eventually got a chance to start. He didn’t look back. He hit .324 the rest of the way – fourth best in the league – for a final line of .305/.360/.423 with 27 doubles, 5 triples, and 3 home runs with 41 bases swiped in 125 games. He became the first Athletic since Rickey Henderson to steal 40 bases, nabbing three-quarters of them after the All-Star break. Indeed, his entire second half was excellent. He was still overly aggressive at the plate, with a 70/29 SO/BB rate, but he was finding gaps and utilizing his wheels. A .361 BABIP didn’t hurt, either. It seemed unlucky that Davis could sustain it – but, with his speed, figured to beat averages on balls in play. The overall approach was a more pressing concern. But he’d assembled an excellent 3.8 WAR season. Clearly, it wasn’t completely holding him back. Once old for his levels, Davis now seemed young at just 29. For the first time, he entered the offseason as a sure starter. The question was: could he repeat the performance, or would this prove to be Davis’ career peak?

Unfortunately, all signs now point to the latter. Davis’ luck ran out in 2010. He was healthy. Oakland committed to him. But he couldn’t sustain his breakout success. Davis hit a .284/.320/.377 slash. He even stole 50 bases, only getting caught 11 times – a great 82% success rate. Davis also set career highs in games played (143), runs (66), hits (149), doubles (28), home runs (5), and RBI (52). In many ways, his performance was identical. He simply was as fortunate. His BABIP (.322) normalized. He didn’t drive the ball as much (a -4.5% LD Rate) and his discipline completely eroded (78/26 SO/BB), resulting in just a 4.6% walk rate. He was pressing and it showed. Davis averaged just 3.40 pitches per plate appearance, the lowest of his career, and played to a poor 1.2 WAR. There were grumblings about mental errors both on the bases and in the outfield. Adding it all together, Oakland prepared to enter 2011 with Coco Crisp in centre and sent Davis to Toronto for relief prospects Danny Farquhar and Trystan Magnuson.

The 2011 Blue Jays started the year short on outfielders sans Vernon Wells. They were also short on speed. Davis was essentially gifted the role of Opening Day leadoff man and centre fielder. At worst, he seemed capable of hitting lefties. He was, as they say, an adventure. Exhibit A: He was the first Blue Jay to reach base in 2011. Got picked off dead-to-rights. Then scampered his way out of it. Behold:

Curious stuff like this became the norm with Davis and between bizarro baserunning and a bunch of bad breaks on fly balls, came questions about his baseball sense. Worse, he couldn’t get on base, going just .238/.273/.350 with 21 doubles, 6 triples and a single home run, his SO/BB rate (63/15) plummeting further. That’s a lot of strikeouts for 320 at bats. He flailed badly against righties (.221 AVG, .504 OPS) and played his way out of a job in June, hitting .163/.171/.000, with a 21/1 SO/BB. Despite his 34 stolen bases (and some electric moments on them) he gave John Farrell little choice but to platoon him. Corey Patterson, Mike McCoy, Dewayne Wise, Adam Loewen and even Travis Snider all saw time in centre field and, in July, the Blue Jays acquired Colby Rasmus from St. Louis, ending any real shot Davis had of winning the starting job back. The position was still messy. Davis’ season was a disaster. To cap it off, he tore his left hamstring in August (virtual death for a speed player) and didn’t return. He looked like a possible roster casualty in the offseason – particularly after the Jays added right-handed hitting Ben Francisco in a trade with Philadelphia – but Toronto retained Davis and he enters 2012 as a pinch runner and fifth outfielder.

OUTLOOK

Players like Rajai Davis inspired the old baseball line that you can’t steal first base. Once he’s there he can be a joy to watch – even when he causes grey hairs – and, when used correctly, can be a tremendous weapon. He cost the Jays virtually nothing (Farquhar and Magnuson are both back in the organization) while also providing defensive depth at all three outfield positions and a speed no other player on the roster possesses.

As a 38^th round draft pick, he’s had a great career. He seems like a great guy, liked by his teammates. And should contribute as a role player around the majors as long as his legs will let him. But it’s hard to see Davis lasting in Toronto beyond this season, even in a platoon capacity, with Eric Thames, Travis Snider and Anthony Gose jockeying for jobs.

Blue Jays fans should enjoy the ride while it lasts. Because, as one of Davis’ old platoon partners once proved, you never know what might happen…

STAT SHEET

There are two reasons we remember Billy Ripken.

Neither of them have anything to do with the way he played second base, or even baseball, during his 11-year career.

The first, of course, is that he’s Cal Ripken’s baby brother.
He’s Roger Clinton. Brent Gretzky. Solange Knowles.

The second is the message he wrote on that baseball card up there: “FUCK FACE”

It was 1989. The year I started getting into baseball. It was a Fleer. Number 616.
His pose was pretty traditional – except for the knob of Ripken’s bat.

Fleer freaked and tried a few bad fixes. Marker. Airbrushing. Even one covered in White-Out before settling on a Borat-esque black censor’s box. All told, there are apparently at least 10 versions. Wikipedia tells me the whiteout one’s now worth $120.

ESPN’s Tim Kurjkian – at the time a reporter with the Baltimore Sun – herded up some incredible stories. Like the one about a kid, a big Ripken fan, who bought a whole mess of #616s from a card dealer for $50. A collection that, after the curse was discovered, was now worth was closer to $20,000. Another story about a boy who sued another kid for convincing him to sell his Billy Ripken for $1, without knowing the curse was on the bat. And perhaps the ultimate: the one that made it onto the Geraldo episode, “Men Who Write Bad Things In Public Places,” on which an audience member claimed they’d written the money phrase on Ripken’s bat.

Over the years, Ripken’s insisted it was he who stained the stick. In 2008, he opened up to Darren Rovell:

“At Memorial Stadium, the bat room was not too close to the clubhouse, so I wanted to write something that I could find immediately if I looked up and it was 4:44 and I had to get out there on the field a minute later and not be late. There were five big grocery carts full of bats in there and if I wrote my number 3, it could be too confusing. So I wrote ‘F–k’ Face on it.”

“In early January, I got a call from our PR guy Rick Vaughn. He said, ‘Billy, we have a problem.’ He told me what was written on the bat and I couldn’t believe it. I went to a store and saw the card and it all came back to me. We were in Fenway Park and I had just taken my first round of BP. I threw my bat to the third base side and strolled around the bases. When I was coming back, right before I got up to hit again, I remember a guy tapping me on the shoulder asking if he could take my picture. Never once did I think about it. I posed for the shot and he took it.”

It’s now the Opening Series of 2012 and a mint edition of the card will cost you $110 on eBay. Ripken now works as a colour commentator for the MLB Network and says he doesn’t know where the bat is today. Maybe borrowed all those years ago by Brady Anderson or some other Oriole.

“Fleer sent me some of the cards out of the goodness of their heart. I autographed them and used them for my gifts to my groomsman in my wedding (that offseason). I figured, at the time, it was better than giving them a set of cufflinks. I think I devalued the cards by signing them though.”

“When people recognize me, I see the look on their face. They think of the card immediately and, before they even ask, I say, ‘Yeah, it was me.’ I don’t know if it happens daily, but, to this day, it still happens a couple of times a
week.”

So sure, Cal was the superstar; Billy, the plugger. But they each have their own legend in the end. That’s the beauty of baseball. One brother can be cast in bronze relief. The other can always look to the spring of 1989 when his image and sense of humour set boys atwitter with mischief.

Oh, and Cal’s card from 1989? It’s number 617 and retails on Amazon for $1.95

Jose Bautista is one of the great power hitters in baseball. He is the centerpiece of the Blue Jays offence and one the game’s most patient, lethal bats. He is also one of its greatest stories. His journey to stardom may be the most unconventional in major league history. Let’s examine the path he took before arriving in Toronto and his chances to get even better.

PROFILE

Incredibly, the Pittsburgh Pirates drafted Jose Bautista out of Chipola junior college in northern Florida in the 20^th round of the 2000 draft, 599^th overall. Bautista is from the Dominican Republic and attended a private high school there (the Yankees, Diamondbacks and Reds tried unsuccessfully to sign him), becoming fluent in English by the time he arrived stateside to enroll in school and enter the Amateur Draft. In college he played centre field but Pittsburgh converted him to third base.

He debuted professionally in 2001 with the short-season Williamsport Crosscutters and hit .286/.364/.427 with 5 HR and an acceptable 41/21 SO/BB ratio. He handled the transition to third well and showed enough with the bat to enter 2002 as a quality sleeper.

In 2002, he graduated to full-season ball with the Hickory Crawdads, hitting an impressive .301/.402/.470 with 26 doubles, 14 home runs and a good 104/67 SO/BB ratio. The performance was very good for the league (+27 OPS) and put Bautista squarely on the Pirates’ prospect map. He made 24 errors, sometimes letting throws sail into the stands, but reports were still positive about his glove, arm strength and overall athleticism. More growth seemed forthcoming.

But most of Bautista’s gains were erased in 2003. He slumped early for the high-A Lynchburg Hillcats and hit just .242/.359/.424 with 4 home runs and a 48/27 SO/BB rate. His plate discipline was improving but he was asked to split time between second and third and struggled with the transition, making 10 errors. His frustration boiled over in May and he punched a dugout garbage can, breaking his right hand. He missed two months and finished the season rehabbing with the rookie level Gulf Coast League Pirates before heading back to the Dominican to play winter ball. During the offseason, Pittsburgh General Manager Dave Littlefield left a number of intriguing Pirates prospects unprotected in the Rule 5 draft (5 of the first 6 picks were Pittsburgh players). Bautista was one of them and he was selected 6th by the Baltimore Orioles, kickstarting one of the strangest transaction chains in league history.

Per baseball rules, Bautista had to stay on the Orioles roster all season in order for Baltimore to keep him in the organization. He was only 22 and hadn’t played above A ball. He was obviously very raw and, worse, attempting to rebound from a season ruined by injury. Still, Bautista showed enough in spring training to make the team. But Baltimore had visions of competing in the AL East and, with Melvin Mora established at third, Bautista barely played; only 16 games and 11 at bats in two months before Baltimore mercifully waived him. He was claimed by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays but only played 12 games for them (receiving only 12 at bats) and was sold to the Kansas City Royals. His career there lasted 13 games and 25 measly at bats. By July, Bautista had just 48 at bats in 4 months with three organizations. At the trade deadline, Kansas City traded him to the New York Mets for Justin Huber. The very same day the Mets also traded him – back to, yes, Pittsburgh with Ty Wigginton and Matt Peterson for Kris Benson and Jeff Keppinger. Bautista got into 23 more games and 40 at bats but struck out in nearly half of them and batted only .200/.238/.250. All told, he hit .205/.263/.239 in 64 games and 88 at-bats in six months. The season was a complete write-off. He remains the only player to be on five different rosters in one season. Some rookie season.

Pittsburgh knew Bautista needed regular playing time and assigned him to the AA Altoona Curve in 2005. He regained his hitting lustre, knocking a .283/.364/.503 slash line with 27 doubles, 23 home runs and a 101/48 SO/BB rate. He also led the team with 90 RBI and earned a late promotion to AAA Indianapolis where he got into 13 games (.255/.309/.373) before finishing the season in Pittsburgh. He struggled badly (only 4 hits in 28 at bats), but he had made it back to the majors. The Pirates hung with Bautista at 3B all season, too, even though he did make 25 errors between the three levels. Still, the flashes of power inspired optimism, his discipline was playable and his arm now rated among the best in the minors. He played in the AA All-Star Game, the FuturesGame and Pittsburgh named him their Minor League Player of the Year. Despite two seasons of stalled development, his career was back on track and he was still only 24.

Bautista’s game needed more seasoning at AAA but he played only 29 games for Indianapolis before Pittsburgh summoned him to replace injured starter Joe Randa. At AAA, Bautista hit a quality .277/.370/.426 but could manage only .235/.335/.420 in the bigs. Still, he swatted hitting 16 home runs and showed patience with a 110/46 SO/BB rate. Pittsburgh’s hitting coach, Jeff Manto, guessed Bautista was capable of 25 home runs within four years. How right he’d end up being. For now, though, Bautista was asked to play all three outfield positions in addition to second and third and never did settle in defensively. His production was strong for a super-utility player, particularly his walk rate and pop. He’d earned a place on the roster entering 2007 – the question was where he would play. Bautista again played winter ball, winning the Caribbean Series with Tigres del Licey.

Pittsburgh made him their Opening Day third baseman in 2007 and Bautista spent the entire season in the majors, sometimes filling an outfield position but mostly improving his defense at third, reducing his errors there to 15. He hit .254/.339/.414 with 36 doubles, 15 home runs and101/68 SO/BB, showing subtle improvements but disappointing overall. He had proven himself a capable super-sub but didn’t show enough to be seen as a core piece and, by now, the Pirates’ brain trust was becoming restless. If another opportunity came Bautista needed to seize it. Statistically, quiet signs showed he was capable of more. He grew more patient, struck out less (despite receiving 150 more at bats than in 2006) , showed impressive doubles power and an abnormally low HR/FB ratio (7.9%) – tough luck given the spacious power alley in PNC Park’s left field. He also missed time in July after slicing his hand on Chipper Jones’ cleats attempting to steal third.

In 2008, Pittsburgh played Bautista exclusively at third but remained highly streaky and his overall output again disappointed: .242/.325/.404 in 107 games with 15 doubles, 12 home runs and a declining 77/38 SO/BB ratio. Far from contention again, Pittsburgh traded Jason Bay to Boston in a three-way blockbuster that sent Manny Ramirez to Los Angeles and brought perpetual prospect Andy LaRoche to Pittsburgh. The Pirates immediately dubbed LaRoche their third baseman of the future. Bautista was told he would be demoted to AAA and asked to be put on waivers. He was quickly dealt to Toronto for Robinson Diaz. Since the traded happened in August every team in baseball had a chance to submit a free claim on Bautista before the deal went through. No one did. He slumped in Toronto initially and only managed a .214/.237/.411 line in 21 games, completely losing his plate discipline (14/2 SO/BB) in the new league. Still, Toronto liked his versatility and track record and re-signed him. He played in the World Baseball Classic and entered 2009 part of Toronto’s bench.

He remained a part-time player until early August when the Blue Jays released Alex Rios and his $69.35M contract to the Chicago White Sox. A straight salary dump. But also the start of something truly remarkable. Bautista got the first crack at regular playing time but scuffled, hitting only .175 with one home run in his first 21 games, as a starter. But he continued to work tirelessly with Cito Gaston and hitting coach Dwayne Murphy on his swing mechanics. Together they discovered he was starting his swing late, forcing his shoulders to open too quickly to get his hands through the hitting zone and causing him to roll over on pitches he ought to drive. The changes, they hoped, would enable Bautista to utilize his quick hands and natural uppercut swing to get in front of pitches with the tremendous pull power generated in his hips.

The Blue Jays coaching staff stuck with him and Bautista applied the refinements, still utilizing his good pitch recognition, but now starting much earlier. The results were immediate and incredible. He hit .270 with 9 HR in the final 23 games boosting his final line to .235/.349/.408 with 13 home runs. But in September alone it was: .257/.339/.606 with 10 HRs. He showed very strong discipline (85/56 SO/BB) all year, too, despite erratic playing time, torching left-handed pitchers (.293/.382/.537) but struggling against righties (.202/.331/.333). He was reliable in right field and Toronto vowed to start him there to begin 2010. Buoyed by the power spike, Bautista eased off weight training and concentrated his offseason workouts on plyometrics and cardio.

Bautista began 2010 as the Jays’ leadoff hitter, showing great patience but little power. But when the calendar turned to May, he absolutely exploded – hitting 12 home runs – and by the end of June he was up to 20 and leading the league. The Giants, Phillies, White Sox and Tigers all inquired about his availability but Alex Anthopoulos kept him in Toronto. Bautista made his first All-Star appearance and finished the year with an astounding .260/.378/.617 slash line, 35 doubles, 54 home runs, 125 RBIs and an amazing116/100 SO/BB ratio. An unbelievably impressive season. He hit countless memorable home runs, setting the Blue Jays’ all-time record, and was hailed for his defense, netting 12 outfield assists – a figure made even more giant by the fact that he also played 48 games at third base. His isolated power more than doubled (.357, up from .173 in 2009) and his fly ball rate went through the roof (54.5%). He earned the Silver Slugger, the Hank Aaron Award as the AL’s top power hitter and finished 4^th in MVP voting. He also earned Toronto’s John Cerutti humanitarian award. Observers were nearly universal in declaring it a career year. But the Blue Jays believed he could sustain, or at least approximate, his performance and rewarded him with a daring 5-year, $65-million contract. He had surgery to repair a nagging sports hernia in October.

Of course, in 2011, he did better than repeat his breakthrough. He started even hotter, leading the AL in home runs in April, May and June, thus becoming the first player to lead a league in 5 straight months (dating back to 2010) since Jimmy Foxx in 1934. He also hit .363 in April & May, set a major league record by receiving 7.4 million All-Star votes and volunteered to shift back to third base again to boost Toronto’s offense. He suffered a couple of freak injuries (a twisted ankle and a Jake Arrieta beanball to the head) and slumped mildly in the second half but it couldn’t diminish the strength of his tremendous overall line: .302/.447/.608 with 43 home runs and an astonishing 111/132 SO/BB rate – an incredibly well rounded statistical line. His HR/FB ratio actually increased (to 22.5% from 21.7% in 2010) and he hit more line drives (16% to 14.4%). He again won the Silver Slugger and Aaron awards. Bautista even stole home during a double-steal. How many 40-HR hitters do that? He notched 13 more assists in right but also had six errors and some advanced defensive metrics weren’t kind in evaluating his range. But his arm strength remained impressive and, anecdotally, the errors seemed more the result of aggressive attempts to gun down runners than any physical problem. He enters 2012 as the face of the Blue Jays (not to mention the Canadian edition of Sony’s “MLB 12 The Show” video game) and one of the most feared hitters in the game.

OUTLOOK

There is little Bautista can do to statistically improve on his performance. We can quibble about his range and future position. At this point, Blue Jays fans – hell, baseball fans – should just enjoy him. In Jose Bautista we find the best parts of the sport. His example shows us that redemption is available to all and that perseverance and hard work can be rewarded.

The key to his future success is health. The Blue Jays are deeper now than at any point since Bautista joined the team and he will not have to switch positions midseason. If his history is any indication, eliminating that distraction should bode well for his offence. Yes, Bautista may eventually move to first base. But at 31 he should be capable of handling the outfield for a few more seasons. Expect Bautista to play in 150+ games and again be among the league leaders in most offensive categories. While he may not hit .300 this year, he will get on base a ton and hit close to 40 home runs. And if, the Blue Jays make a run at the new Wildcard, which I think they will, Bautista will again receive heavy consideration for MVP.

It’s fascinating to think what he might have achieved with a normal career trajectory. He always possessed strong tools and above-average control of the strike zone. Who knows what could have been had he not lost two seasons to injury and roster shuffling. Players with Bautista’s arc are typically fortunate to turn out as journeymen. Most wash out. Very few become something more. He is one of baseball’s rare homemade superstars.

He has also grown into the leader of the Blue Jays clubhouse, demanding accountability of his teammates, taking Yunel Escobar under his wing after the shortstop played his way out of Atlanta, and openly discussing his participation in baseball’s drug-testing program.

However unconventional Bautista’s rise has been he is precisely the type of player you want to build a rising team around. That his contract rewards both him and the Blue Jays for the faith they showed in each other signing it when they did is just icing on the cake.

STAT SHEET

Jose Bautista, RF
10/19/80            Bats: R             Throws: R       HT: 6-0          WT: 195
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic            College: Chipola JC (Florida)
Drafted by Pittsburgh in the 20th round, 599th overall, of the 2000 MLB Amateur Draft.
Acquired: Traded to Toronto in July 2008.
Contract Status: Signed through 2016.
Salary: 12: $14M 13: $14M 14: $14M 15: $14M 16: $14M club option/$1M buyout)
Service Time: 6.165

The Toronto Blue Jays place special emphasis on acquiring and developing young middle-of-the-diamond talent. Sophomore catcher J.P. Arencibia is one of the early leaders of this movement. But in a system loaded with young catching talent he may spend the next year looking over his shoulder. Let’s look at the strides Arencibia’s taken so far and what we can expect from him moving forward.

PROFILE

In 2004, the Seattle Mariners drafted J.P. Arencibia in the 17^th round out of Westminster Christian High School where he shares the high school’s home run record with Alex Rodriguez. Arencibia chose not to sign and attended the University of Tennessee, earning SEC Freshman of the Year honours in 2005. He also starred for the U.S. national team and finished his three-year college career with a .333/.413/.552 line.

The Toronto Blue Jays drafted him with their second pick in the 2007 draft, 21^st overall, and planned to develop him as a catcher though some scouts speculated poor defense might eventually move him off the position. He signed early and got into 63 games for the low-A Auburn Doubledays, hitting a disappointing .254/.309/.377 with 3 home runs and only 14 walks though he did lead the team with 17 doubles. Pre-draft concerns about his receiving skills were validated as Arencibia led the league with 18 passed balls.

Despite his struggles, Toronto promoted Arencibia to high-A Dunedin to begin 2008 and the catcher broke out in a big way: .315/.344/.560 with 13 home runs and 22 doubles in 59 games. He earned a promotion to AA New Hampshire, posting a .282/.302/.496 line in 67 games, clubbing 14 more home runs, and finished the year in the Arizona Fall League. But he struggled badly against breaking balls and his plate discipline (101/18 SO/BB) was almost non-existent, dragging his OBP to an unacceptable level, even for a catcher. Reports on his defense were more encouraging. He received credit for improved mobility behind the plate, showed good arm strength and the team felt his footwork could come around.

In 2009, Arencibia was promoted to the launching pad at AAA Las Vegas even though his approach to hitting needed real attention. As you might expect, the season was a disaster. He slumped to .236/.284/,444 with 21 home runs and a 114/26 SO/BB rate. His discipline issues were impeding his progress against better pitching. His defense fell apart, too, and he led Pacific Coast League catchers in errors and passed balls. He also played hurt. A blockage between Arencibia’s kidney and bladder caused him to retain a litre of fluid, gain weight and almost require the kidney to be removed. Arencibia also dealt with vision problems that impaired his sight at night – even watching TV or reading street signs – resulting in bad day/night splits (.284 vs .227), albeit in a small sample. That September he underwent surgeries to correct both problems and work toward restoring his prospect status.

Repeating the level in 2010, Arencibia revitalized his career. He played 104 games, hit an excellent .301/.359/.626 with 36 doubles, 32 home runs and a respectable 85/28 SO/BB ratio. He won the Pacific Coast League’s MVP award, earned a call-up to Toronto and made history with the greatest debut in Blue Jays history. The rest of his time in the majors wasn’t as memorable. He only got into 11 games, limping to a .143/.189/.343 line. Manager Cito Gaston took heat for refusing to play him regularly in September (it didn’t help that Arencibia went 1 for 30 after his debut). Still, the improved contact rate and strike zone judgment augured well. Instead of looking like a free-swinging bust, Arencibia now seemed primed for the bigs. He might never resemble a gold-glover but he’d become capable defensively. With his power, that would do. Now 25, there was reason to believe his bat would play – and perhaps even develop a bit more.

The Blue Jays anointed Arencibia their starting catcher going into 2011. He was instructed to concentrate on the pitching staff and not dwell on his offense. He struggled in spring training but started the season strong and never relinquished the job, playing 129 games despite suffering through a number of nagging injuries. His rookie season ended with a .219/.282/.438 line, 20 doubles, 4 triples and 23 home runs. He struck out 133 times but also posted a career-high 36 walks. He set a new low for passed balls (12) but still finished second-worst in the league. Still, there was room for optimism. He led a young pitching staff to a .500 record, studying video tirelessly and working daily with bench coach Don Wakamatsu (who Arencibia lovingly refers to as ‘Dad’) to improve at blocking pitches and throw out runners. By the end of the season his footwork had improved dramatically and any concerns about his ability to stick at catcher were gone.

OUTLOOK

Arencibia enters his second season as the starting catcher with clear strengths and weaknesses. He has tremendous natural power. Can handle left-handed pitching. And works well with the pitching staff. Of course, he also remains a terribly streaky hitter and his batting average will never impress – although his .255 BABIP suggests it should rise, particularly if he can boost his contact rate as he did repeating AAA. Arencibia’s history is that he hits better once he adjusts to his new level. If he can do that in Toronto, he’ll be a very valuable player in a deep Toronto lineup. He’ll hit ninth most nights and his power is a major asset there. It doesn’t hurt that Arencibia hit 1.153 OPS batting 9^th in 2011 though that of course can’t be used as a predictor of future success.

Arencibia’s intangibles are also well regarded. He’s assumed a leadership role in Toronto, growing the Jays’ presence on Twitter and taking part in both of the team’s cross-Canada Winter Caravans. He is fluent in Spanish and communicates well with the entire staff. Barring injury, Arencibia is likely to improve across the board in 2011. He’s comfortably among the second tier of major league catchers with an outside chance to end the year among the Top 10. A 26-year old with those attributes, and several seasons of team control left, is a legitimate asset. He’ll almost certainly have a long career.

The question is whether it will all be in Toronto. The Blue Jays’ best prospect, Travis d’Arnaud, needs more minor league time and is expected to spend the season at AAA Las Vegas. But most consider d’Arnaud the more well-rounded of the two. Young catchers are far from a sure thing. But d’Arnaud’s presence should give Arencibia extra motivation this year. He must continue to refine his approach, get on base more and keep growing defensively in order to convince the Blue Jays’ brain trust that he, not d’Arnaud, is the catcher to keep. It’s not an impossible scenario – particularly if d’Arnaud can fetch a true staff ace in a trade. Barring injury, I think Arencibia will get better in all facets of his game in 2012. But not enough to keep his name from appearing in trade rumours all summer long.

STAT SHEET

J.P. Arencibia, C
01/05/86            Bats: R             Throws: R       HT: 6-1          WT: 210
Miami, Florida                         College: Tennessee
Drafted by Toronto in the 1st round, 21st overall, in 2007 MLB Amateur Draft.
Contract Status: Eligible for arbitration in 2015.
Salary: $489,600
Service Time: 1.059

The hopes of this year’s Toronto Blue Jays rest largely on the performance of the team’s mid-rotation starters. One of those expected to play a major role is 21-year old right-hander Henderson Alvarez. Let’s take a look at the path he’s taken to Toronto and what we can likely expect from him this year and beyond.

PROFILE

Henderson Alvarez was signed by the Toronto Blue Jays as a free agent from Venezuela in 2006. He made his debut in 2007 in the Dominican Summer League as a 17-year old, going 1-2, 5.61 with a 20/8 SO/BB ratio in 25.2 IP. He was obviously raw and also very hittable posting a 12.6 H/9 but showed a decent strikeout rate and overall command.

The Jays moved him to their rookie-level Gulf Coast affiliate in 2008 where he made 11 starts and had a line of 1-4, 5.63 with a 34/6 SO/BB rate in 46.1 IP. His hit rate was again high (12.2H/9) but defense in the lower minors is often unrefined and since  Alvarez’s best pitch was a power sinker, there was hope the hits would diminish in front of better fielders. Again note the impressive command. His above-average velocity also attracted notice but some questioned whether Alvarez could develop the rest of his repertoire enough to keep hitters from keying on the fastball.

He broke through in 2009 at low-A Lansing, starting 23 games for a 9-6, 3.47 line, with a 92/19 SO/BB ratio in 124.1 IP. He continued to show excellent downward movement on his fastball, resulting in a good ground-ball rate of 51.4%. He allowed only home run. Over his first three seasons (196.1 IP) opposing hitters had only taken him deep 4 times. Lansing plays as a pitcher’s park but the numbers were still impressive and Alvarez was still a teenager. Reports also showed very good development of the changeup. These strides and his ability to translate them across the increased workload boosted optimism about his overall ceiling and potential to stay a starter long-term.

Toronto advanced him to High-A Dunedin in 2010 and he held his own going 8-7, 4.33 with a 78/27 SO/BB in 112.1 IP earning a selection to the Futures Game. His control slipped slightly but many attributed it to a greater focus on the development of a curveball. The pitch was unreliable at this point and many wondered if he could pass the AA test without a more effective breaking ball. He faded badly down the stretch with an ERA of 6.00 after the All-Star Break. Further concerns about his slight build and a delivery that some labeled high-effort led some to project him as a future reliever at this point. But the organization insisted he  would keep starting until he proved he couldn’t.

The Jays’ confidence paid off in 2011. After beginning the year with a stint on the disabled list and a couple of subsequent rehab starts in Dunedin, Alvarez advanced to AA New Hampshire and delivered an 8-4, 2.86 line with a 66/17 SO/IP rate in 88 IP and again appeared in the Futures Game. New Hampshire clocked Alvarez’s velocity at a new height – sitting close to 96 MPH and even touching 101 at times. His strikeout rate slipped but the control remained excellent. By now he was also throwing a curve and slider – though both were still seen as fringy. Even as mere ‘show-me’ pitches, the breaking balls were able to induce weaker contact off the sinker. The Blue Jays called him up in August and he made 10 starts, going 1-3, 3.53 with a 40/8 SO/BB in 63.2 IP, at one point reeling off 14 straight shutout innings. He showed impressive athleticism and fields his position well. This as one of the youngest players in the league. He lost his rookie eligibility and enters 2012 as the Blue Jays likely 4^th starter.

OUTLOOK

It’s important to remember that Alvarez will still only be 21 on Opening Day. With his raw ability and deep reluctance to give up walks there is a lot to be excited about here and the debate about his upside continues. Alvarez showed last year that his fastball-changeup combination is strong enough to position him as a starter moving forward. Whether he is a third (or fourth) man or something more depends on further refinements to his breaking pitches. In 2012, 71% of Alvarez’s pitches were fastballs. That’s incredibly hard to sustain multiple times through a major league order. Without adjustments, experienced lineups will exploit his lack of another out pitch in his second tour of the league. This will be the key to his season. Alvarez will also have to throw more quality strikes this year to keep his hit rate manageable and the prevent the ball from leaving the yard. This will likely come with experience and all reports on his willingness to work with the coaching staff are exemplary.

Toronto will give Alvarez every opportunity to seize a starter’s spot and run with it so that he can develop at the major league level. I take an optimistic view on Alvarez. While I expect he will battle inconsistency at times I also think he’ll contribute 25+ starts and establish himself as a capable third man behind Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow. That would make him either a future cornerstone of the Jays rotation – or a very valuable trade chip.

STAT SHEET

Henderson Alvarez, SP
04/18/90            Bats: R             Throws: R       HT: 6-1          WT: 195
Valencia, Venezuela
Signed: By Toronto as an amateur free agent October 17, 2006.
Contract Status: Eligible for arbitration in 2016.
Salary: $482,900
Service Time: 0.051