Lars Anderson should provide quality depth for the Toronto Blue Jays as he works to finally establish himself in the majors. (J. Meric/Getty Images)

Lars Anderson is the newest member of the Toronto Blue Jays organization, arriving on a waiver claim in late February. He’s a former top prospect who’s stalled out in the upper minors. But with David Cooper injured and Adam Lind’s effectiveness hardly guaranteed, there’s a chance Anderson could work his way back to the bigs this year. He’s still only 25.

PROFILE

Lars Anderson was selected by the Boston Red Sox in the 18^th round, 553^rd overall, of the 2006 amateur draft out of Jesuit High School in Carmichael, California. He’d played for the U.S. junior national team and was considered an early round talent. But most teams passed on him due to signability concerns stemming from an early commitment to the University of California (Berkeley). Under Theo Epstein’s ambitious draft management, the Red Sox managed to get Anderson under contract for sandwich-round money ($825,000), augmenting a successful class that also yielded Daniel Bard, Justin Masterson and Josh Reddick.

Anderson began his pro career the following season with the full-season Greenville Drive of the South Atlantic League. He attacked fastballs well and showed precocious pitch recognition skills as well as excellent patience. He played 124 games, hitting .288/.385/.443 with an impressive 35 doubles, 10 home runs, 69 RBI and a striking 112/71 SO/BB ratio. He was still a teenager but one demonstrating skills well beyond his years. He also received a brief taste of high-A with the California League’s Lancaster JetHawks and tore the cover off the ball (.343/.489/.486) in the circuit’s cushy hitting environs. He was surging up prospect charts and looked to be worth every penny of his draft bonus.

He began 2008 back in Lancaster but the league couldn’t hold him for long. In 77 games, he slugged .317/.408/.513 with 19 doubles and 13 home runs, driving in 50 and registering a strong 64/46 SO/BB. Promoted to the Eastern League’s Portland Sea Dogs in July, Anderson obliterated his first taste of AA, swatting .316/.436/.526 with 13 doubles, 5 home runs, 30 RBI and incredible patience (43/29 SO/BB) over a 41-game trial. All told, he’d put up a .317/.417/.517 slash line with 32 doubles and 18 home runs and extraordinary control (107/75 SO/BB) for a developing power bat. He reached base in 36 of his 41 AA games, producing a .926 OPS at the level as a 20-year old. His strikeout rate (26.4%) rose after the promotion but so, too, did his walks (17.8%). It looked like he was on the fast-track to stardom. The only real caveat in his profile lurked in his unbelievable BABIPs. He’d registered crazy numbers in the category at every stop of his career – but his .430 AA mark was never going to hold up over a full season. Still, Anderson had done more than enough to earn Red Sox Minor League Offensive Player of the Year honours and clearly rated as one of the truly elite prospects in baseball. His luck only looked like something to keep an eye on.

Boston hoped Anderson could build upon his AA success by spending all of 2009 back in Portland and he got off to a solid, if not spectacular, start as the league adjusted to him. But in the second half, Anderson regressed to an almost unbelievable level, hitting just .154 with one home run and 9 RBI over his last 40 games. It was an unconscionable collapse. Many wondered if he was playing hurt and, indeed, his season ended early due to back soreness and hamstring problems. But were they the sole cause of such prolonged misery? In 119 total games, Anderson was left with a line of just .233/.328/.345, 23 doubles, 9 home runs, 51 RBI and a souring 114/63 SO/BB rate. His line drive rate sunk from 19.9% to just 13%. And, indeed, his luck completely ran out, sending his BABIP plunging from .430 to a more credible .292. Had playing hurt cost him half a season of development time? Or did his first real bout of failure send him crumbling under expectations that he was supposed to be the Red Sox first baseman of the future? With Anthony Rizzo climbing quickly behind him, Anderson now faced an uncertain path.

Shaken by his awful finish, Boston had little choice but to return Anderson to Portland in 2010. He responded like it’d never happened, hitting an extraordinary .355/.408/.677 with 5 home runs in 17 games. His health was assured, it was clear his approach was still intact and Boston quickly promoted him to the AAA Pawtucket Red Sox. There, he seemed to fall in somewhere between his two extremes, hitting .262/.340/.428 with 32 doubles, 10 home runs, 53 RBI and a mediocre 109/44 SO/BB ratio the rest of the way. On one hand, his gap strength and patience had returned to wicked effect. On the other, he was now struggling mightily against southpaws and still only hitting .262 with below average home run power. He received a late promotion to Boston, making his major league debut against the Tampa Bay Rays. But Anderson would only get into 18 games while hitting a soft .200/326/.229. More adjustments were still necessarily. He would enter 2011 at age 23 ticketed again for AAA. Still young enough to develop more power and restore his prospect standing. But old enough now that questions about his ultimate power ceiling wouldn’t go away. He’d earned a reputation as smart and hard working. But there were rumblings that he sometimes put too much pressure on himself, extending slumps when things weren’t going well. That winter, Boston traded Rizzo as part of a package for Adrian Gonzalez. Anderson now appeared blocked and could only prepare for a return engagement in the International League awaiting an opportunity, most likely in another organization.

The Red Sox had little choice but to send him back to the International League and hope for the best. Instead, Anderson gave them more of the same. He played 93 games, hitting .259/.359/.415 with 22 doubles, 9 HRs, 52 RBI and a 89/56 SO/BB. Injuries to Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury helped him back to the show for a week in April. But when Kevin Youkilis got hurt in May, Will Middlebrooks was up and Anderson was history. At the deadline, he was traded to the Cleveland Indians for right-handed knuckleballer Steven Wright, capping a disappointing end to Anderson’s Red Sox career. He couldn’t break the Cleveland lineup, either, even with injuries and ineffectiveness sidelining Matt LaPorta and Travis Hafner. Instead, they rolled with Casey Kotchman’s flailing ghost all the way to a 68-win season. Anderson was stuck manning first in AAA for the Columbus Clippers – and he was awful, hitting a meagre .196/.319/.286 with 5 doubles, no home runs and a 18/9 SO/BB in 18 games. There were now real doubts about whether he’d ever be able to establish himself as a major league regular. In December, he was sent packing again as part of a three-team trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks and Cincinnati Reds featuring Trevor Bauer and Shin-Soo Choo. Anderson looked like little more than a depth piece and, by February, found himself on waivers, then claimed by the Chicago White Sox. His time as a south-sider lasted only three weeks before they waived him, too. In need of first base depth and sensing a buy-low opportunity, the Blue Jays claimed Anderson and invited him to spring training.

OUTLOOK

For all the dreams that Lars Anderson may one day revive his stagnating career, at this point, it appears this is what he is. A guy very much like David Cooper. In Toronto, that may actually make Anderson useful to have around. This winter, Toronto lost Mike McDade to Cleveland. Then Cooper was unable to report to camp because of a back injury that now threatens to derail his season. That leaves the Blue Jays awfully thin at first base in the upper minors. Given Adam Lind is the incumbent DH, depth may prove to be a valuable commodity. Anderson’s spot on the 40-man is hardly secure. And he’ll slot in behind Anthony Gose, Moises Sierra and Josh Thole on the list of probable call-ups biding their time in Buffalo. But if Lind’s conditioning or performance falters and Anderson gets off to a good start, we could see him in Toronto this summer.

It’s interesting that Anderson is essentially stepping into Cooper’s role on this Blue Jays team. After Anderson signed in Boston, Cooper ended up transferring to the University of California and starring there before being drafted by Toronto. Now, Anderson is part insurance plan, part cautionary tale about overvaluing prospect assets.

If he can regain the strike zone, he may end up putting together a decent season in the next few years. But to do it, he’ll need a major league opportunity he won’t likely find in Toronto.

STAT SHEET

Lars Anderson, 1B
09/25/87            Bats: L             Throws: L        HT: 6-4          WT: 215
Oakland, California                    High School: Jesuit (Sacramento, CA)
Drafted by Boston in the 18^th round, 553^rd overall, of the 2006 MLB Amateur Draft.
Acquired: Selected off waivers from the Chicago White Sox on February 25, 2013
Contract Status: Not eligible for arbitration before 2016.
Salary: $482,000
Service Time: 0.053

Robert Coello has a power arm but he’s still learning how to get big league hitters out. (Bryan Green)

Robert Coello may be the most anonymous man on the Toronto Blue Jays roster. Indeed, his journey to the majors is one of the most circuitous on the team. So who is he? Let’s take a look at Coello’s story and what he can bring to the Blue Jays bullpen.

PROFILE

The Kansas City Royals drafted Robert Coello in the 46^th round, 1353^rd overall, out of Lake Region High School in central Florida in the 2003 draft. As a catcher. A high school student with options, Coello chose not to sign and instead attended Northwest Florida State College (then known as Okaloosa-Walton Junior College) before re-entering the draft in 2004. This time, the Cincinnati Reds selected Coello in the 20^th round, 588^th overall and got him to sign on the dotted line.

He began 2005 in extended spring training but fractured a rib in June and missed the rest of the season. A lost year.

The next spring, before Coello ha’d ever played a game for them, the Reds released him. His pro career looked like it could be over before it started. But Coello stayed in shape through the summer and hooked on with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in September. With one catch – they wanted to convert him into a pitcher. At the time, Coello was clocked throwing 90+ mph to the bases. So he didn’t lack for arm strength.

He finally got on the field late in 2007 with the short-season, rookie-level Arizona League Angels. The competition was mostly teenagers – but Coello was only beginning his own development and acquitted himself well. Pitching out of the bullpen, he threw in 20 games and went 1-1, 1.37 in 26.1 innings with a 26/7 SO/BB ratio. But the Angels elected not to keep him and Coello was again a free agent.

But he persevered.

Coello journeyed to the independent leagues, and across the border, playing in Canada in the Golden Baseball League for the Calgary Vipers. He got off to a rocky start and found himself traded to the cross-province Edmonton Cracker-Cats by midseason. He struggled with his control in Edmonton but frequently pitched out of trouble against marginal competition and finished the season with a 3-1, 3.29 line in 41 innings and a 47/24 SO/BB ratio across 32 games. He had good raw stuff but the kind of command issues to be expected from a pitcher with 60-odd innings of professional experience. Still, his performance was enough to catch the attention of the Boston Red Sox who signed him in November. That didn’t stop him from playing winter ball, and working as a starter, for the Algodoneros de Guasave. After years of false starts, and a year in virtual baseball exile, Coello signed with Boston and was headed back into organized ball.

He started the year with the AAA Pawtucket Red Sox, making one appearance, before beginning his expected assignment with the high-A Salem Red Sox of the Carolina League. He showed nasty strikeout stuff on the way to an excellent season: 33 games, 5-3, 2.05 in 66 innings with an 82/34 SO/BB rate and a 1.09 WHIP. The strikeout rate (11.2/9) was exceptional but he fought his control to an unsustainable (4.6/9) walk rate. Once again the positives easily outweighed the negatives for a guy in first year of full-season ball, still learning how to pitch. Opponents hit only .167 off him and he didn’t give up a run in his last ten outings, covering 18.2 IP, including three appearances in the playoffs. Coello flashed potential but needed more minor league time to harness his stuff.

Boston agreed and to begin 2010 assigned Coello to the AA Portland Sea Dogs. He worked as a swingman in 14 games, going 4-1, 3.32 in 43.1 IP and an impressive 51/14 SO/BB ratio. His 3.64 SO/BB ratio was a career best and the improved command earned him a promotion to Pawtucket. The PawSox desperately needed him and worked Coello hard. He pitched in 18 games en route to a 3-5 record and 4.22 ERA across 64 innings. His command slipped a bit, leading to a 79/30 SO/BB line but he was still striking guys out (11.1/9), though his walk rate (4.2/9) was slipping fast. Batters again struggled to make consistent contact against him (.192 BAA) but drove the ball when they did (10 HR allowed). Still, between the two levels, he’d managed to lead all Red Sox farmhands with 130 strikeouts and again finished his season on a high note while pitching out of the PawSox bullpen. In 9 relief outings his ERA was 1.40 (3 ER/19.1 IP) with a 24/9 SO/BB line.

His changeup was lacklustre and his curveball registered as a fringe-level, show-me pitch. But Coello could bring the heat, often touching 95 mph, and looked like he might have a future in the pen. In a neat twist, the future came quickly. In September, Boston rewarded his impressive minor league numbers and allowed him to realize a dream. He made his major league debut at home, against Tampa Bay, and got into 6 total games going, 0-0, 4.76 with a 5/5 SO/BB rate, holding opponents scoreless in 5 of 6 appearances. It was a dream season. But that would soon gives way to a harsher reality. The following February, just days before pitchers and catchers were to report for spring training, Boston signed relievers Alfredo Aceves and Dennys Reyes to bolster their bullpen, designating Coello for assignment to accommodate them. Ultimately, he was traded to the Chicago Cubs for minor league utility guy Tony Thomas. Like that, Coello was a Cub. He would have to prove himself to a new organization – one with little investment in him compared to the Red Sox.

He did begin 2011 on the Cubs’ 40-man roster,  assigned him to the AAA Iowa Cubs. He began the year as a starter but eventually became more of a swingman; sometimes starting games, sometimes finishing them. He piled up a 4-5 record and 6.52 ERA in the rotation – brutal numbers, even for the Pacific Coast League – but Chicago couldn’t afford to move him to the bullpen. They needed his innings. They were having the same problem in the majors and in May signed journeyman Rodrigo Lopez to bail out their limping rotation. Again, Coello found himself D’dFA to make room. This time, he cleared waivers and was outrighted to the AA Tennessee Smokies where he worked as a starter for 4 games, going 1-2, 3.00 in 21 innings with a 16/7 SO/BB ratio, fighting his way back to Iowa. He spent the balance of the season in AAA, pitching out of the bullpen full-time beginning in July. Like in 2010, the results were impressive – 19 appearances, a 1.01 ERA, a .149 BAA with 42 SO in 35.2 innings. Put together, he totalled 30 games, going 6-6, 4.45 in 95 innings with a 94/41 SO/BB ratio. By now, the book on Coello was out: Good stuff, real velocity, questionable command. He turned 27 during the offseason and, with the Cubs rebuilding, found himself a free agent again. His best shot at success was to catch on somewhere as a reliever and hope for an opportunity. He played winter ball in Venezuela and, in December, signed a minor league contract with the Blue Jays.

Toronto seemed a decent fit for Coello. Though the team had a host of relief options in the majors, many in the organization were familiar with Coello’s resume (manager John Farrell was the Red Sox pitching coach in 2010 and first base coach Torey Luvullo managed the PawSox the same year) and keen to tap into his arsenal. Coello also helped his cause by pitching well in spring training before heading to AAA Las Vegas to work as a reliever and spot starter. By now, he’d abandoned his fringe curve in favour of a hard slider. His forkball, called “funky” this year by Farrell, can also be effective. He’s been one of the 51s’ most reliable arms so far, pitching to a 4-1, 3.00 line in 42 IP with just 31 hits allowed and a 43/18 SO/BB ratio in 19 games. In May, the Blue Jays’ bullpen needed bailing out and he was added to the 40-man roster.

OUTLOOK

Coello’s journey to the show has followed a winding road through unconventional outposts. At 27, he now has the best opportunity of his career to stick in the majors for an extended run. The early returns are encouraging: 0-1, 3.60 in 5 innings with 8 strikeouts and 2 walks. The Blue Jays will likely fight to fill innings the rest of the season and, if Coello can continue his early success, it would surely help the team bridge some big middle innings. His ability to throw multiple frames is a big asset. And it doesn’t hurt that John Farrell’s already a fan. It’s not impossible to think he could even start in a pinch before the season’s over.

Coello can reach back and find plus velocity on his fastball – 95 at times, sitting at 92-93 – and there might still be a bit of development in his forkball and slider. Because his arm strength is combined with a funky delivery he still projects best as a middle or possibly late-inning reliever. First he’ll have to prove that he can use his stuff to consistently get major league hitters out. With their rotation decimated, the Jays are in survival mode now. For Coello, that means not all of his opportunities will be ideal. Same goes for Jesse Chavez, Aaron Laffey and Evan Crawford. But it’s a shot. I expect Coello will battle consistency at times, piling up strikeouts in stretches but probably walks, too. Look for him to get heavy usage the rest of the way, finishing in the majors, and possibly finishing with a run of success like he’s experienced in the minors. A line of 2-4, 4.75, 45 IP, 40/25 SO/BB seems right.

STAT SHEET

Robert Coello, RP
11/23/84            Bats: R             Throws: R       HT: 6-5          WT: 250
Bayonne, New Jersey              College: Okaloosa-Walton College (Niceville, Florida)
Drafted by Cincinnati in the 20^th round, 588^th overall, of the 2004 MLB Amateur Draft.
Acquired: Signed as a free agent December 2011.
Contract Status: Not eligible for arbitration before 2016.
Salary: N/A
Service Time: 0.029

After a mediocre season in 2011, the back end of the Blue Jays bullpen was in need of a makeover. Many analysts targeted Francisco Cordero as a potential closer option, citing his 327 career saves and affordable price tag. Instead, Toronto boldly acquired Sergio Santos. But in a neat twist they signed Cordero anyway, giving them an experienced mentor for Santos and a quality Plan B. Cordero wasn’t always seen as a power reliever. Now he sits 12^th all-time in saves. Here’s an in-depth look at how that happened - and how long we can reasonably expect him to remain effective.

PROFILE

Francisco Cordero was signed by the Detroit Tigers as a minor league free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 1994. He is a cousin of former Blue Jays first baseman Domingo Martinez. He began his career at 16 in the Dominican Summer League, going 4-3, with a 3.90 ERA in 12 games before moving to North America in 1995.

Back then, Cordero was actually a starter in the Tigers system. He kicked off his first year stateside with the low-A Fayetteville Generals and short-season Jamestown Jammers. He had a live fastball but struggled with consistency, going 4-10, 5.42 in 108 innings with a 73/49 SO/BB in 18 starts.

He started 1997 in extended spring training before returning briefly to Fayetteville and Jamestown. In June he injured his elbow and missed the rest of the year. He only threw 18 innings but his elevated 8.5 SO/9 stood out. Cordero had an explosive fastball and a nasty slider at this point. Power stuff. When he returned, the Tigers converted him into a closer to lessen the stress on his arm. The switch sped up his timeline to the majors. And changed the course of his career.

Healthy again in 1997, Cordero starred for the West Michigan Whitecaps of the Midwest League, going 6-1, 0.99 in 54.1 IP with a 67/15 SO/BB for a slick 11.1 SO/9 rate. He also collected 35 saves, earned the Tigers’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year honours and heard raves from scouts. Baseball America called him the best prospect in the league and he was now seen universally as a legitimate relief arm. In the offseason, he consolidated his gains playing winter ball in the Dominican for Leones del Escogido. The Tigers hoped to fast-track Cordero through their system and skipped him skip past high-A.

He started the 1998 season with the AA Jacksonville Suns, at one point setting up for Matt Anderson, the former first overall pick, whom the Tigers had a lot invested in. But Cordero pitched only 17 games before suffering another serious arm injury – this time a stress fracture to his right elbow – and underwent season-ending surgery in July. The Tigers would have to wait. When healthy, Cordero’s stuff was still dynamic. But injuries were now threatening to derail his career.

Cordero managed to start the following season on time. He was reassigned to Jacksonville but this time he excelled. In 47 games, he went 4-1, 1.38 in 52.1 IP with 58 SO (a 10.0 SO/9) and 22 BB. He paced the Southern League with 27 saves and was named its Pitcher of the Year. He also pitched in the Futures Games in July. The Tigers were set at closer with Todd Jones. But they were terrible otherwise and couldn’t resist getting a look at Cordero in the majors. They called him up in August and he stormed out of the gate, throwing up zeroes across his first 11 appearances. He finished 2-2, 3.32 but he was also walking almost a batter an inning (19/18 SO/BB in 19IP) and was sometimes criticized for overthrowing. Nothing unusual for a rookie. Elsewhere, Anderson always seemed to be hurt or flailing. So Cordero represented hope. He was chosen to transport home plate from storied Tiger Stadium to the new Comerica Park (with Jeff Weaver and, yes, Anderson) and had an inside track at a bullpen job entering 2000. But Detroit was looking for a bankable star to bring fans to Comerica and sent Cordero to Texas as part of a six-player package for Juan Gonzalez. Twelve years later, Cordero’s generated a higher WAR than any player in the deal. Juan Gone included.

He made the Rangers out of spring training and won his first appearance, ultimately spending most of 2000 learning on the job in the Texas bullpen. In 56 games, he went 1-4, 5.35 in 77.1 innings. He was very hittable (.285/.383/.475), especially against lefties (.310/.461/.496), and couldn’t harness his control (49/48 SO/BB). He also uncorked 7 wild pitches. Refinements were definitely needed. But with a 95+ mph fastball and a filthy slider to work with more chances would come.

Just not soon. In early 2001, Cordero suffered a stress fracture in his lower back and could only make 15 appearances between Texas and the Triple-A Oklahoma RedHawks. Lingering pain and tightness limited his workload but the minor league numbers he put up during his rehab were better than ever: 0-1, 0.59 with a 20/3 SO/BB rate in 15.1 IP. Cordero again seemed poised to assume a late-inning role in the Texas ‘pen – if he could keep himself on the field.

In 2002, Cordero finally broke through. He split time between Oklahoma and Texas, eventually giving the Rangers 39 games, 2-0, 1.79 in 45.1 IP with an impeccable 41/13 SO/BB line. He only gave up 2 runs after June 1 – an incredible span stretching 33 games and 38.1 innings. With Jeff Zimmerman sidelined by a blown-out elbow the Rangers struggled to close games – even trying Hideki Irabu there at one point. No one could hold Cordero off for long and he ultimately finished in the closer’s role, netting 10 saves. He landed on the shelf (again) in June with a right shoulder strain but rebounded splendidly. His injury history suggests a pitcher perpetually on the verge of breaking down. Instead, Cordero’s never missed time in the ten years since. Relievers are unpredictable like that.

Cordero looked ready to continue closing going into 2003. But Texas elected to sign veteran stopper Ugueth Urbina. Undeterred, Cordero just kept on performing and manager Buck Showalter ultimately turned to him more than any other Ranger. He lead the team with 73 games and went 5-8, 2.94 in a whopping 82.2 innings with a potent 90/38 SO/BB rate. Urbina was gone by midseason, Cordero finished with 15 saves and established himself as a full-time stopper. He had cemented himself at last.

He was even better in 2004: 3-4, 2.13, 71.2 IP with a 79/32 SO/BB line in 67 games and the Rangers improved by 16 wins, buoyed by Cordero’s franchise record 49 saves and 9.92 SO/9. He only gave up one home run and had streaks of 19 and 21 straight saves. Cordero made his first All-Star team and even received MVP votes. More of the same followed in 2005. Cordero secured 37 saves while also flashing a career-high 10.3 SO/9 and an excellent 14.2% swinging strike rate. He was now undeniably among baseball’s elite firemen.

But in 2006 Cordero got off to a dreadful start, blowing 5 saves in April and finishing the month with an 11.45 ERA. Showalter flinched and installed new free agent signing Akinori Otsuka in the ninth inning. Cordero was undeniably terrible. But the 55 plate appearance-sample size was small. Still, it seemed the damage was done. In mid-summer, with Texas chasing the Athletics and Angels, the Rangers sent Cordero to the Milwaukee Brewers for Carlos Lee (and a throw-in bat named Nelson Cruz). The Brewers badly needed a closer and Cordero embraced the change of scenery. He kicked off his Brewers career by converting 16 straight saves and finished 3-1, 1.69 with a 30/16 SO/BB rate. His walks spiked but still looked better than Derrick Turnbow’s. The Brewers (and Rangers) finished well out of the playoff race. But Cordero was now comfortable and set to play a leading role on an improving Brewers team.

And so it went. He pitched 66 games in 2007, going 0-4, 2.98 in 63.1 IP with a franchise-record 44 saves and a fantastic 86/18 SO/BB ratio. He generated a career-best 12.2 SO/9, a sterling 4.78 SO/BB and held hitters to a .218 BAA. He nailed down his first 22 saves in a row including 10 in April. Later, he earned saves on five consecutive days. He made the All-Star team and was a major reason the Brewers finished second in the NL Central. His home/road ERA splits were severe (1.09/6.55) but Cordero set himself up beautifully for his first crack at free agency. And cashed in with a four-year, $46 million deal with the fifth place Cincinnati Reds – the biggest contract ever signed by a relief pitcher at the time.

Over the next four years, Cordero gave the Reds exactly what they paid him for. He pitched 283 games, going 18-18, 2.96 in 279.1 innings with a cumulative 237/126 SO/BB and a whopping 150 saves. He made his third All-Star team in 2009 and helped the Reds win the NL Central in 2010. Alas, the Reds never got a lead and Cordero didn’t get to pitch in the playoffs. The Reds also rewarded his community work, nominating him for the Roberto Clemente Award. Dusty Baker rode him hard over the years, sometimes pitching him four and five days in a row. But Cordero didn’t miss any time. And only required one late-September microfracture procedure to remove a bone spur from his right foot. For the last decade, he’s been one of the most reliable and durable relievers in the game.

His 2011 season is very interesting. Cordero pitched 68 games, saving 37, and went 5-3, 2.45 in 69.2 IP – but with an underwhelming 49/22 SO/BB rate. His 5.43 SO/9 was the lowest of his career. But so was his 6.3 H/9. He also dramatically reduced the walks he allowed (2.84 BB/9, his best rate in 10 years) and produced a strong 1.02 WHIP. He had four bad outings before the All-Star break but managed an excellent 1.80 ERA in the second half. He was absolute murder on righties (.159/.245/.220) and showed he could still be effective against lefties (.243/.302/.435). He recorded an unsustainable .214 BABIP but also delivered the best ground ball (50.0%) and line drive rates (16.2%) of his career. He was tough to get on against. 20 of his 37 saves were 1-2-3 innings. Yet he lost some velocity on his fastball (down to 93 mph) and virtually threw it only 41.2% of the time – down from 66.7% in 2010. Instead, Cordero threw three times as many changeups (18.8% from 6.7%) and introduced a new show-me curveball (9.8%).

Many are attributing this change to declining stuff. Fair enough. He’s 37 in a month. But it’s possible Cordero’s fundamentally changing the way he attacks hitters. In interviews, Cordero insists he now strives to be more economical on the mound by inducing weak contact. The ground ball and line drive rates seem to back this up. The question moving forward is: Has a 37-year old closer reinvented himself as a crafty specialist or did he get lucky at the same time his stuff started to fade? We’ll soon find out.

OUTLOOK

In the new-look Jays bullpen, Cordero’s job is simple. He’ll be asked to enter close games, attack right-handed hitters and be prepared to slide into the ninth when called on. He should also guide Sergio Santos. Cordero still looks capable of doing all these things and there is no situation Santos will encounter this year that Cordero hasn’t seen.

He is now entering the Roberto Hernandez stage of his career. He may have fewer chances to influences games but will be but will be counted on for guidance and stability – especially with fastball-slider guys like Santos and Joel Carreno. He’s been worth 21.4 WAR in his career. Has saved 30 games 7 times and sits second among pitchers in saves and fifth in games pitched.Who could have guessed Cordero and Darren Oliver, teammates on the 2000 Texas Rangers, would still be going strong all these years later?

Expect Cordero to pound RHH, be more susceptible to home runs and rack up a whack of holds and add a few saves. His margin for error is shrinking and he could still break down at any time. But I’m betting there’s another season or two left.

STAT SHEET

Francisco Cordero, RP
05/11/75            Bats: R             Throws: R       HT: 6-3          WT: 245
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
Signed: By Detroit as an amateur free agent June 18, 1994.
Acquired: Signed by Toronto in February 2012.
Contract Status: Free Agent in 2013.
Salary: $4,500,000
Service Time: 12.046

Jose Bautista is one of the great power hitters in baseball. He is the centerpiece of the Blue Jays offence and one the game’s most patient, lethal bats. He is also one of its greatest stories. His journey to stardom may be the most unconventional in major league history. Let’s examine the path he took before arriving in Toronto and his chances to get even better.

PROFILE

Incredibly, the Pittsburgh Pirates drafted Jose Bautista out of Chipola junior college in northern Florida in the 20^th round of the 2000 draft, 599^th overall. Bautista is from the Dominican Republic and attended a private high school there (the Yankees, Diamondbacks and Reds tried unsuccessfully to sign him), becoming fluent in English by the time he arrived stateside to enroll in school and enter the Amateur Draft. In college he played centre field but Pittsburgh converted him to third base.

He debuted professionally in 2001 with the short-season Williamsport Crosscutters and hit .286/.364/.427 with 5 HR and an acceptable 41/21 SO/BB ratio. He handled the transition to third well and showed enough with the bat to enter 2002 as a quality sleeper.

In 2002, he graduated to full-season ball with the Hickory Crawdads, hitting an impressive .301/.402/.470 with 26 doubles, 14 home runs and a good 104/67 SO/BB ratio. The performance was very good for the league (+27 OPS) and put Bautista squarely on the Pirates’ prospect map. He made 24 errors, sometimes letting throws sail into the stands, but reports were still positive about his glove, arm strength and overall athleticism. More growth seemed forthcoming.

But most of Bautista’s gains were erased in 2003. He slumped early for the high-A Lynchburg Hillcats and hit just .242/.359/.424 with 4 home runs and a 48/27 SO/BB rate. His plate discipline was improving but he was asked to split time between second and third and struggled with the transition, making 10 errors. His frustration boiled over in May and he punched a dugout garbage can, breaking his right hand. He missed two months and finished the season rehabbing with the rookie level Gulf Coast League Pirates before heading back to the Dominican to play winter ball. During the offseason, Pittsburgh General Manager Dave Littlefield left a number of intriguing Pirates prospects unprotected in the Rule 5 draft (5 of the first 6 picks were Pittsburgh players). Bautista was one of them and he was selected 6th by the Baltimore Orioles, kickstarting one of the strangest transaction chains in league history.

Per baseball rules, Bautista had to stay on the Orioles roster all season in order for Baltimore to keep him in the organization. He was only 22 and hadn’t played above A ball. He was obviously very raw and, worse, attempting to rebound from a season ruined by injury. Still, Bautista showed enough in spring training to make the team. But Baltimore had visions of competing in the AL East and, with Melvin Mora established at third, Bautista barely played; only 16 games and 11 at bats in two months before Baltimore mercifully waived him. He was claimed by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays but only played 12 games for them (receiving only 12 at bats) and was sold to the Kansas City Royals. His career there lasted 13 games and 25 measly at bats. By July, Bautista had just 48 at bats in 4 months with three organizations. At the trade deadline, Kansas City traded him to the New York Mets for Justin Huber. The very same day the Mets also traded him – back to, yes, Pittsburgh with Ty Wigginton and Matt Peterson for Kris Benson and Jeff Keppinger. Bautista got into 23 more games and 40 at bats but struck out in nearly half of them and batted only .200/.238/.250. All told, he hit .205/.263/.239 in 64 games and 88 at-bats in six months. The season was a complete write-off. He remains the only player to be on five different rosters in one season. Some rookie season.

Pittsburgh knew Bautista needed regular playing time and assigned him to the AA Altoona Curve in 2005. He regained his hitting lustre, knocking a .283/.364/.503 slash line with 27 doubles, 23 home runs and a 101/48 SO/BB rate. He also led the team with 90 RBI and earned a late promotion to AAA Indianapolis where he got into 13 games (.255/.309/.373) before finishing the season in Pittsburgh. He struggled badly (only 4 hits in 28 at bats), but he had made it back to the majors. The Pirates hung with Bautista at 3B all season, too, even though he did make 25 errors between the three levels. Still, the flashes of power inspired optimism, his discipline was playable and his arm now rated among the best in the minors. He played in the AA All-Star Game, the FuturesGame and Pittsburgh named him their Minor League Player of the Year. Despite two seasons of stalled development, his career was back on track and he was still only 24.

Bautista’s game needed more seasoning at AAA but he played only 29 games for Indianapolis before Pittsburgh summoned him to replace injured starter Joe Randa. At AAA, Bautista hit a quality .277/.370/.426 but could manage only .235/.335/.420 in the bigs. Still, he swatted hitting 16 home runs and showed patience with a 110/46 SO/BB rate. Pittsburgh’s hitting coach, Jeff Manto, guessed Bautista was capable of 25 home runs within four years. How right he’d end up being. For now, though, Bautista was asked to play all three outfield positions in addition to second and third and never did settle in defensively. His production was strong for a super-utility player, particularly his walk rate and pop. He’d earned a place on the roster entering 2007 – the question was where he would play. Bautista again played winter ball, winning the Caribbean Series with Tigres del Licey.

Pittsburgh made him their Opening Day third baseman in 2007 and Bautista spent the entire season in the majors, sometimes filling an outfield position but mostly improving his defense at third, reducing his errors there to 15. He hit .254/.339/.414 with 36 doubles, 15 home runs and101/68 SO/BB, showing subtle improvements but disappointing overall. He had proven himself a capable super-sub but didn’t show enough to be seen as a core piece and, by now, the Pirates’ brain trust was becoming restless. If another opportunity came Bautista needed to seize it. Statistically, quiet signs showed he was capable of more. He grew more patient, struck out less (despite receiving 150 more at bats than in 2006) , showed impressive doubles power and an abnormally low HR/FB ratio (7.9%) – tough luck given the spacious power alley in PNC Park’s left field. He also missed time in July after slicing his hand on Chipper Jones’ cleats attempting to steal third.

In 2008, Pittsburgh played Bautista exclusively at third but remained highly streaky and his overall output again disappointed: .242/.325/.404 in 107 games with 15 doubles, 12 home runs and a declining 77/38 SO/BB ratio. Far from contention again, Pittsburgh traded Jason Bay to Boston in a three-way blockbuster that sent Manny Ramirez to Los Angeles and brought perpetual prospect Andy LaRoche to Pittsburgh. The Pirates immediately dubbed LaRoche their third baseman of the future. Bautista was told he would be demoted to AAA and asked to be put on waivers. He was quickly dealt to Toronto for Robinson Diaz. Since the traded happened in August every team in baseball had a chance to submit a free claim on Bautista before the deal went through. No one did. He slumped in Toronto initially and only managed a .214/.237/.411 line in 21 games, completely losing his plate discipline (14/2 SO/BB) in the new league. Still, Toronto liked his versatility and track record and re-signed him. He played in the World Baseball Classic and entered 2009 part of Toronto’s bench.

He remained a part-time player until early August when the Blue Jays released Alex Rios and his $69.35M contract to the Chicago White Sox. A straight salary dump. But also the start of something truly remarkable. Bautista got the first crack at regular playing time but scuffled, hitting only .175 with one home run in his first 21 games, as a starter. But he continued to work tirelessly with Cito Gaston and hitting coach Dwayne Murphy on his swing mechanics. Together they discovered he was starting his swing late, forcing his shoulders to open too quickly to get his hands through the hitting zone and causing him to roll over on pitches he ought to drive. The changes, they hoped, would enable Bautista to utilize his quick hands and natural uppercut swing to get in front of pitches with the tremendous pull power generated in his hips.

The Blue Jays coaching staff stuck with him and Bautista applied the refinements, still utilizing his good pitch recognition, but now starting much earlier. The results were immediate and incredible. He hit .270 with 9 HR in the final 23 games boosting his final line to .235/.349/.408 with 13 home runs. But in September alone it was: .257/.339/.606 with 10 HRs. He showed very strong discipline (85/56 SO/BB) all year, too, despite erratic playing time, torching left-handed pitchers (.293/.382/.537) but struggling against righties (.202/.331/.333). He was reliable in right field and Toronto vowed to start him there to begin 2010. Buoyed by the power spike, Bautista eased off weight training and concentrated his offseason workouts on plyometrics and cardio.

Bautista began 2010 as the Jays’ leadoff hitter, showing great patience but little power. But when the calendar turned to May, he absolutely exploded – hitting 12 home runs – and by the end of June he was up to 20 and leading the league. The Giants, Phillies, White Sox and Tigers all inquired about his availability but Alex Anthopoulos kept him in Toronto. Bautista made his first All-Star appearance and finished the year with an astounding .260/.378/.617 slash line, 35 doubles, 54 home runs, 125 RBIs and an amazing116/100 SO/BB ratio. An unbelievably impressive season. He hit countless memorable home runs, setting the Blue Jays’ all-time record, and was hailed for his defense, netting 12 outfield assists – a figure made even more giant by the fact that he also played 48 games at third base. His isolated power more than doubled (.357, up from .173 in 2009) and his fly ball rate went through the roof (54.5%). He earned the Silver Slugger, the Hank Aaron Award as the AL’s top power hitter and finished 4^th in MVP voting. He also earned Toronto’s John Cerutti humanitarian award. Observers were nearly universal in declaring it a career year. But the Blue Jays believed he could sustain, or at least approximate, his performance and rewarded him with a daring 5-year, $65-million contract. He had surgery to repair a nagging sports hernia in October.

Of course, in 2011, he did better than repeat his breakthrough. He started even hotter, leading the AL in home runs in April, May and June, thus becoming the first player to lead a league in 5 straight months (dating back to 2010) since Jimmy Foxx in 1934. He also hit .363 in April & May, set a major league record by receiving 7.4 million All-Star votes and volunteered to shift back to third base again to boost Toronto’s offense. He suffered a couple of freak injuries (a twisted ankle and a Jake Arrieta beanball to the head) and slumped mildly in the second half but it couldn’t diminish the strength of his tremendous overall line: .302/.447/.608 with 43 home runs and an astonishing 111/132 SO/BB rate – an incredibly well rounded statistical line. His HR/FB ratio actually increased (to 22.5% from 21.7% in 2010) and he hit more line drives (16% to 14.4%). He again won the Silver Slugger and Aaron awards. Bautista even stole home during a double-steal. How many 40-HR hitters do that? He notched 13 more assists in right but also had six errors and some advanced defensive metrics weren’t kind in evaluating his range. But his arm strength remained impressive and, anecdotally, the errors seemed more the result of aggressive attempts to gun down runners than any physical problem. He enters 2012 as the face of the Blue Jays (not to mention the Canadian edition of Sony’s “MLB 12 The Show” video game) and one of the most feared hitters in the game.

OUTLOOK

There is little Bautista can do to statistically improve on his performance. We can quibble about his range and future position. At this point, Blue Jays fans – hell, baseball fans – should just enjoy him. In Jose Bautista we find the best parts of the sport. His example shows us that redemption is available to all and that perseverance and hard work can be rewarded.

The key to his future success is health. The Blue Jays are deeper now than at any point since Bautista joined the team and he will not have to switch positions midseason. If his history is any indication, eliminating that distraction should bode well for his offence. Yes, Bautista may eventually move to first base. But at 31 he should be capable of handling the outfield for a few more seasons. Expect Bautista to play in 150+ games and again be among the league leaders in most offensive categories. While he may not hit .300 this year, he will get on base a ton and hit close to 40 home runs. And if, the Blue Jays make a run at the new Wildcard, which I think they will, Bautista will again receive heavy consideration for MVP.

It’s fascinating to think what he might have achieved with a normal career trajectory. He always possessed strong tools and above-average control of the strike zone. Who knows what could have been had he not lost two seasons to injury and roster shuffling. Players with Bautista’s arc are typically fortunate to turn out as journeymen. Most wash out. Very few become something more. He is one of baseball’s rare homemade superstars.

He has also grown into the leader of the Blue Jays clubhouse, demanding accountability of his teammates, taking Yunel Escobar under his wing after the shortstop played his way out of Atlanta, and openly discussing his participation in baseball’s drug-testing program.

However unconventional Bautista’s rise has been he is precisely the type of player you want to build a rising team around. That his contract rewards both him and the Blue Jays for the faith they showed in each other signing it when they did is just icing on the cake.

STAT SHEET

Jose Bautista, RF
10/19/80            Bats: R             Throws: R       HT: 6-0          WT: 195
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic            College: Chipola JC (Florida)
Drafted by Pittsburgh in the 20th round, 599th overall, of the 2000 MLB Amateur Draft.
Acquired: Traded to Toronto in July 2008.
Contract Status: Signed through 2016.
Salary: 12: $14M 13: $14M 14: $14M 15: $14M 16: $14M club option/$1M buyout)
Service Time: 6.165