After a mediocre season in 2011, the back end of the Blue Jays bullpen was in need of a makeover. Many analysts targeted Francisco Cordero as a potential closer option, citing his 327 career saves and affordable price tag. Instead, Toronto boldly acquired Sergio Santos. But in a neat twist they signed Cordero anyway, giving them an experienced mentor for Santos and a quality Plan B. Cordero wasn’t always seen as a power reliever. Now he sits 12^th all-time in saves. Here’s an in-depth look at how that happened - and how long we can reasonably expect him to remain effective.

PROFILE

Francisco Cordero was signed by the Detroit Tigers as a minor league free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 1994. He is a cousin of former Blue Jays first baseman Domingo Martinez. He began his career at 16 in the Dominican Summer League, going 4-3, with a 3.90 ERA in 12 games before moving to North America in 1995.

Back then, Cordero was actually a starter in the Tigers system. He kicked off his first year stateside with the low-A Fayetteville Generals and short-season Jamestown Jammers. He had a live fastball but struggled with consistency, going 4-10, 5.42 in 108 innings with a 73/49 SO/BB in 18 starts.

He started 1997 in extended spring training before returning briefly to Fayetteville and Jamestown. In June he injured his elbow and missed the rest of the year. He only threw 18 innings but his elevated 8.5 SO/9 stood out. Cordero had an explosive fastball and a nasty slider at this point. Power stuff. When he returned, the Tigers converted him into a closer to lessen the stress on his arm. The switch sped up his timeline to the majors. And changed the course of his career.

Healthy again in 1997, Cordero starred for the West Michigan Whitecaps of the Midwest League, going 6-1, 0.99 in 54.1 IP with a 67/15 SO/BB for a slick 11.1 SO/9 rate. He also collected 35 saves, earned the Tigers’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year honours and heard raves from scouts. Baseball America called him the best prospect in the league and he was now seen universally as a legitimate relief arm. In the offseason, he consolidated his gains playing winter ball in the Dominican for Leones del Escogido. The Tigers hoped to fast-track Cordero through their system and skipped him skip past high-A.

He started the 1998 season with the AA Jacksonville Suns, at one point setting up for Matt Anderson, the former first overall pick, whom the Tigers had a lot invested in. But Cordero pitched only 17 games before suffering another serious arm injury – this time a stress fracture to his right elbow – and underwent season-ending surgery in July. The Tigers would have to wait. When healthy, Cordero’s stuff was still dynamic. But injuries were now threatening to derail his career.

Cordero managed to start the following season on time. He was reassigned to Jacksonville but this time he excelled. In 47 games, he went 4-1, 1.38 in 52.1 IP with 58 SO (a 10.0 SO/9) and 22 BB. He paced the Southern League with 27 saves and was named its Pitcher of the Year. He also pitched in the Futures Games in July. The Tigers were set at closer with Todd Jones. But they were terrible otherwise and couldn’t resist getting a look at Cordero in the majors. They called him up in August and he stormed out of the gate, throwing up zeroes across his first 11 appearances. He finished 2-2, 3.32 but he was also walking almost a batter an inning (19/18 SO/BB in 19IP) and was sometimes criticized for overthrowing. Nothing unusual for a rookie. Elsewhere, Anderson always seemed to be hurt or flailing. So Cordero represented hope. He was chosen to transport home plate from storied Tiger Stadium to the new Comerica Park (with Jeff Weaver and, yes, Anderson) and had an inside track at a bullpen job entering 2000. But Detroit was looking for a bankable star to bring fans to Comerica and sent Cordero to Texas as part of a six-player package for Juan Gonzalez. Twelve years later, Cordero’s generated a higher WAR than any player in the deal. Juan Gone included.

He made the Rangers out of spring training and won his first appearance, ultimately spending most of 2000 learning on the job in the Texas bullpen. In 56 games, he went 1-4, 5.35 in 77.1 innings. He was very hittable (.285/.383/.475), especially against lefties (.310/.461/.496), and couldn’t harness his control (49/48 SO/BB). He also uncorked 7 wild pitches. Refinements were definitely needed. But with a 95+ mph fastball and a filthy slider to work with more chances would come.

Just not soon. In early 2001, Cordero suffered a stress fracture in his lower back and could only make 15 appearances between Texas and the Triple-A Oklahoma RedHawks. Lingering pain and tightness limited his workload but the minor league numbers he put up during his rehab were better than ever: 0-1, 0.59 with a 20/3 SO/BB rate in 15.1 IP. Cordero again seemed poised to assume a late-inning role in the Texas ‘pen – if he could keep himself on the field.

In 2002, Cordero finally broke through. He split time between Oklahoma and Texas, eventually giving the Rangers 39 games, 2-0, 1.79 in 45.1 IP with an impeccable 41/13 SO/BB line. He only gave up 2 runs after June 1 – an incredible span stretching 33 games and 38.1 innings. With Jeff Zimmerman sidelined by a blown-out elbow the Rangers struggled to close games – even trying Hideki Irabu there at one point. No one could hold Cordero off for long and he ultimately finished in the closer’s role, netting 10 saves. He landed on the shelf (again) in June with a right shoulder strain but rebounded splendidly. His injury history suggests a pitcher perpetually on the verge of breaking down. Instead, Cordero’s never missed time in the ten years since. Relievers are unpredictable like that.

Cordero looked ready to continue closing going into 2003. But Texas elected to sign veteran stopper Ugueth Urbina. Undeterred, Cordero just kept on performing and manager Buck Showalter ultimately turned to him more than any other Ranger. He lead the team with 73 games and went 5-8, 2.94 in a whopping 82.2 innings with a potent 90/38 SO/BB rate. Urbina was gone by midseason, Cordero finished with 15 saves and established himself as a full-time stopper. He had cemented himself at last.

He was even better in 2004: 3-4, 2.13, 71.2 IP with a 79/32 SO/BB line in 67 games and the Rangers improved by 16 wins, buoyed by Cordero’s franchise record 49 saves and 9.92 SO/9. He only gave up one home run and had streaks of 19 and 21 straight saves. Cordero made his first All-Star team and even received MVP votes. More of the same followed in 2005. Cordero secured 37 saves while also flashing a career-high 10.3 SO/9 and an excellent 14.2% swinging strike rate. He was now undeniably among baseball’s elite firemen.

But in 2006 Cordero got off to a dreadful start, blowing 5 saves in April and finishing the month with an 11.45 ERA. Showalter flinched and installed new free agent signing Akinori Otsuka in the ninth inning. Cordero was undeniably terrible. But the 55 plate appearance-sample size was small. Still, it seemed the damage was done. In mid-summer, with Texas chasing the Athletics and Angels, the Rangers sent Cordero to the Milwaukee Brewers for Carlos Lee (and a throw-in bat named Nelson Cruz). The Brewers badly needed a closer and Cordero embraced the change of scenery. He kicked off his Brewers career by converting 16 straight saves and finished 3-1, 1.69 with a 30/16 SO/BB rate. His walks spiked but still looked better than Derrick Turnbow’s. The Brewers (and Rangers) finished well out of the playoff race. But Cordero was now comfortable and set to play a leading role on an improving Brewers team.

And so it went. He pitched 66 games in 2007, going 0-4, 2.98 in 63.1 IP with a franchise-record 44 saves and a fantastic 86/18 SO/BB ratio. He generated a career-best 12.2 SO/9, a sterling 4.78 SO/BB and held hitters to a .218 BAA. He nailed down his first 22 saves in a row including 10 in April. Later, he earned saves on five consecutive days. He made the All-Star team and was a major reason the Brewers finished second in the NL Central. His home/road ERA splits were severe (1.09/6.55) but Cordero set himself up beautifully for his first crack at free agency. And cashed in with a four-year, $46 million deal with the fifth place Cincinnati Reds – the biggest contract ever signed by a relief pitcher at the time.

Over the next four years, Cordero gave the Reds exactly what they paid him for. He pitched 283 games, going 18-18, 2.96 in 279.1 innings with a cumulative 237/126 SO/BB and a whopping 150 saves. He made his third All-Star team in 2009 and helped the Reds win the NL Central in 2010. Alas, the Reds never got a lead and Cordero didn’t get to pitch in the playoffs. The Reds also rewarded his community work, nominating him for the Roberto Clemente Award. Dusty Baker rode him hard over the years, sometimes pitching him four and five days in a row. But Cordero didn’t miss any time. And only required one late-September microfracture procedure to remove a bone spur from his right foot. For the last decade, he’s been one of the most reliable and durable relievers in the game.

His 2011 season is very interesting. Cordero pitched 68 games, saving 37, and went 5-3, 2.45 in 69.2 IP – but with an underwhelming 49/22 SO/BB rate. His 5.43 SO/9 was the lowest of his career. But so was his 6.3 H/9. He also dramatically reduced the walks he allowed (2.84 BB/9, his best rate in 10 years) and produced a strong 1.02 WHIP. He had four bad outings before the All-Star break but managed an excellent 1.80 ERA in the second half. He was absolute murder on righties (.159/.245/.220) and showed he could still be effective against lefties (.243/.302/.435). He recorded an unsustainable .214 BABIP but also delivered the best ground ball (50.0%) and line drive rates (16.2%) of his career. He was tough to get on against. 20 of his 37 saves were 1-2-3 innings. Yet he lost some velocity on his fastball (down to 93 mph) and virtually threw it only 41.2% of the time – down from 66.7% in 2010. Instead, Cordero threw three times as many changeups (18.8% from 6.7%) and introduced a new show-me curveball (9.8%).

Many are attributing this change to declining stuff. Fair enough. He’s 37 in a month. But it’s possible Cordero’s fundamentally changing the way he attacks hitters. In interviews, Cordero insists he now strives to be more economical on the mound by inducing weak contact. The ground ball and line drive rates seem to back this up. The question moving forward is: Has a 37-year old closer reinvented himself as a crafty specialist or did he get lucky at the same time his stuff started to fade? We’ll soon find out.

OUTLOOK

In the new-look Jays bullpen, Cordero’s job is simple. He’ll be asked to enter close games, attack right-handed hitters and be prepared to slide into the ninth when called on. He should also guide Sergio Santos. Cordero still looks capable of doing all these things and there is no situation Santos will encounter this year that Cordero hasn’t seen.

He is now entering the Roberto Hernandez stage of his career. He may have fewer chances to influences games but will be but will be counted on for guidance and stability – especially with fastball-slider guys like Santos and Joel Carreno. He’s been worth 21.4 WAR in his career. Has saved 30 games 7 times and sits second among pitchers in saves and fifth in games pitched.Who could have guessed Cordero and Darren Oliver, teammates on the 2000 Texas Rangers, would still be going strong all these years later?

Expect Cordero to pound RHH, be more susceptible to home runs and rack up a whack of holds and add a few saves. His margin for error is shrinking and he could still break down at any time. But I’m betting there’s another season or two left.

STAT SHEET

Francisco Cordero, RP
05/11/75            Bats: R             Throws: R       HT: 6-3          WT: 245
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
Signed: By Detroit as an amateur free agent June 18, 1994.
Acquired: Signed by Toronto in February 2012.
Contract Status: Free Agent in 2013.
Salary: $4,500,000
Service Time: 12.046

Brett Cecil enters 2012 as one of the Toronto Blue Jays’ biggest question marks. He’s had extended periods of success but he’s also battled inconsistency and hasn’t developed into a top pitcher. It seems like Cecil’s been around a while but he’s still only 25 and could still come on. Let’s look back at his history and see if he can take that elusive next step forward.

PROFILE

The Toronto Blue Jays drafted Brett Cecil in the sandwich round, 38^th overall, in 2007 out of the University of Maryland, where he majored in criminal justice. The Blue Jays obtained the pick as compensation for the Angels signing Justin Speier. Cecil was a closer in college but Toronto planned to stretch him out. He signed a week after the draft and began his pro career with the Auburn Doubledays, starting 13 games and going 1-0, 1.27 in 49.2 IP with a terrific 56/11 ratio and only 7 earned runs allowed. He gave up only one home run and only once surrendered two runs.

Cecil featured two quality pitches: a 90-92 mph fastball and a plus slider, his out pitch in college. Early on, the Blue Jays also asked him to develop a changeup as part of a larger organizational strategy. The results were great and it looked like he could move quickly.

He started 2008 with the full-season Dunedin Blue Jays and blew away his competition in four  starts (0-0, 1.74 10.1 IP, 11/2 SO/BB, 0.77 WHIP) despite being limited by low pitch counts. Toronto then promoted him to the AA New Hampshire Fisher Cats and the positive performances continued. Cecil made 18 starts in Manchester and went 6-2, 2.55 in 77.2 IP with an impressive 87/23 SO/BB ratio, earning him a spot on the AA All-Star team, before the Blue Jays aggressively gave him a late-season call-up to the AAA Syracuse Chiefs. He was starting to tire at this point but still held his own in the International League, pitching to a 2-3, 4.11 line with a 31/16 SO/BB rate in 30.2 innings. His control slipped a bit, probably due to increased workload, but the overall stuff was still effective. In total, Cecil started 28 games and threw 118.2 IP across three levels. He was the first player from the 2007 draft to reach AAA and his ability to induce ground balls resulted in a meagre .237 BAA. All positives. He also learned a new grip for his changeup from teammate Robert Ray and began regularly incorporated a slow curve into his mix. Toronto had a lot of reasons to be optimistic about Cecil and he finished the year as the organization’s top pitching prospect.

In 2009, the Blue Jays changed AAA affiliates and were now aligned with the Las Vegas 51s of the Pacific Coast League. This was bad news for Toronto pitching prospects. Cashman Field, the 51s’ home, is a bandbox. Cecil began the year there but found himself Toronto-bound on May 1 as the Jays quickly tired of watching Brian Burres and Bryan Bullington futz around. I attended his major league debut and came away impressed. He was obviously nervous – he’s only the second pitcher in the last 75 years to hit three batters in his first game – but pitched effectively, flashing the stuff and command we’d seen in his minor league career. Though short, his first stay was successful and, after another trip to Vegas, he returned for good. Cecil’s numbers with the 51s were tough to evaluate (1-5, 5.69 in 49 IP with declining control: 32/19 SO/BB) because of the environment and his first taste of the show was, on the whole, uneven (7-4, 5.30 in 93.1 IP with 116 hits allowed and a 69/38 SO/BB rate). He gave up 17 home runs (9 to LHB), struggled badly on the road (6.31), and there were some suggestions that he was tipping his pitches by fully extending his left arm behind him during his wind-up. But Cecil had moved through the system briskly and seemed likely to improve with experience. Plus, the Jays were very young. He was still only 23 and his future looked bright.

Cecil seemed certain to start 2010 in the Blue Jays rotation but cut his hand with a kitchen knife in spring training and had to go back to Las Vegas to get his arm in game shape. But his time in AAA was short. He was back in Toronto before May and took a huge leap forward, establishing career highs in every pitching category. The result was 28 starts and a happy 15-7, 4.22 line in 172.2 IP with a 117/54 SO/BB ratio. A lot of Cecil’s success stemmed from new confidence in his changeup that allowed him to rely less on his fastball and slider. 23.4% of his pitches were changeups in 2010 compared to 14.2% in 2009. Consistenly keeping hitters off balance also helped him keep the ball in the park as he gave up just one more HR than in 2009 despite throwing an extra 79.1 innings. But his file wasn’t fully clear of red flags. His 15 wins were buoyed by a team-high 5.5 runs of support per start and he got lit up in September (.365/.413/.548), after again entering new innings territory. Still, Toronto had won 85 games and Cecil was a big reason why. He was emerging as a mainstay in the Blue Jays’ young rotation and a certain building block moving forward.

If only it were so simple. That offseason, Cecil and his wife gave birth to their first child and the change in his personal life seemed to affect his conditioning regimen. He arrived at camp visibly heavier than in the past. Worse, he had trouble repeating his mechanics in spring training and showed a troubling drop in velocity – averaging just 88.5 mph on his fastball, down from 90.1 mph in 2010 and 90.7 mph in 2009. It carried over into the regular season and after four lacklustre starts (6.86, 15/11 SO/BB), Toronto sent him to Las Vegas to find himself. His 12 starts there were inconsistent: 8-2, 5.26 in 78.2 IP with a 63/24 SO/BB ratio. But Cecil eventually worked his way back to Toronto – bringing a raging Mohawk and a set of serious muttonchops with him. He had cleaned up his delivery but still couldn’t find his velocity or the success of his breakthrough season. In 20 total starts, he went 7-4, 4.73 in 123.2 IP with 87 strikeouts and 42 walks. His FB rate rose and, accordingly, so did his HR rate – up to 1.6/9IP, a figure that would’ve rated worst in the league if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify. All 22 dingers he allowed were to right-handed hitters. Though he’d always been tougher on lefties, Cecil now showed a truly dreadful platoon split (.186/.282/.240 vs. LHB, .282/.337/.539 vs. RHB) and some wondered if he could even continue in the rotation. It didn’t help that he went winless through August and September, piling up seven losses and a 5.16 ERA in his last 10 starts despite a solid .249 BAA. Even with no one on base, home runs were killing him. Perhaps most damning was that Cecil’s numbers could’ve been worse. His .267 BABIP suggests he was actually lucky and that his 5.10 FIP is a better indicator of his true performance. It was a forgettable season. He even missed a start after cutting his left index finger cleaning a blender. Cecil ended the year without quieting any of the questions about his velo drop and the Blue Jays braintrust wasn’t happy with his conditioning. For the first time, the organization seemed unsure it could rely on him going forward.

OUTLOOK

Brett Cecil enters 2012 at something of a crossroads. He’s coming off his weakest season at a time when the Blue Jays must get consistency from the back end of their rotation if they hope to compete in the AL East. His performance this year may well shape the next chapter of his career. The Blue Jays simply have too many rising young arms to endure more mediocrity.

For his part, Cecil appears ready for the challenge. He addressed concerns about his fitness level by adopting a healthier a diet and a more strenuous workout plan this winter. He dropped 38 pounds and now throws with an easier motion and seems to be keeping the ball down well. The problem is that his velocity still hasn’t returned. Without it, Cecil’s probably a 4^th starter who’ll have to command his fastball exceptionally well to succeed. I’ve always liked him and sense his teammates do, too. He spends more time with fans taking pictures and signing autographs than anyone on the team (rare for a pitcher) and just participated in the Jays’ winter caravan while simultaneously rededicating himself to better conditioning. So it’s easy to hold out hope that he can still establish himself in Toronto’s rotation. Objectively, his below-average fastball and quality breaking pitches may be best-suited for the National League. Years from now I won’t be surprised if he’s enjoyed a long career as a Jeff Fassero or Scott Downs type. This year, I expect 25+ starts, 10-12 wins and an ERA around 4.50. Solid, if average. I do think his control will come around. But I also think he’ll really fight the long ball. I expect to hear his name in trade talks for other teams’ top starters all summer.

STAT SHEET

Brett Cecil, SP
07/02/86            Bats: R             Throws: L        HT: 6-1          WT: 219
Dunkirk, Maryland                                 College: University of Maryland
Drafted by Toronto in the 1^st round, 38^th overall, of the 2007 MLB Amateur Draft.
Contract Status: Eligible for arbitration in 2013.
Salary: $443,100
Service Time: 2.071