Expect Emilio Bonifacio to inject the Blue Jays offense with speed, dynamism and versatility in 2013. (Gregory Bull/Associated Press)

Less may be known about Emilio Bonifacio than the other members of the Toronto-bound Marlin Five. But he is a fascinating player. In Toronto, he may be arriving in an ideal environment to exploit his tools. The only questions involve health and opportunity. Let’s look at what kind of player Bonifacio is and how he’ll be deployed.

PROFILE

The Arizona Diamondbacks signed Emilio Bonifacio as an amateur free agent at the end of 2001. He stayed in his native Dominican in 2002, playing in the summer league for the DSL Diamondbacks. He came stateside in 2003 and debuted with the Missoula Osprey of the Pioneer League. It was a team oozing with raw talent, also featuring Carlos Gonzalez and Miguel Montero. But Bonifacio was only 18 and it showed. He hit just .199/.298/.219 in 54 games, showing great speed and a little patience. But he was badly overmatched. Playing exclusively second base he made 11 errors and showing average instincts.

Nonetheless, Arizona promoted him to the full-season South Bend Silver Hawks in 2004. Bonifacio overcame his rookie struggles, improving enough to stick in South Bend the whole season. He played 120 games and hit .260/.306/.319 with 40 stolen bases and a 122/25 SO/BB ratio. Pitchers didn’t hesitate to knock the bat out of his hands and his approach was clearly very raw. But Bonifacio was one of the youngest players in the league and was using his speed to get on more. His season was a quiet success.

But the chance to consolidate his gains couldn’t hurt. Arizona returned Bonifacio to the Midwest League in 2005 and he spent another full season with the team. Though his surface numbers were similar, he changed his game significantly at the plate. In 127 games, he hit .270/.341/.330 with 22 extra-base hits, a system-leading 55 steals and a dramatically-improved 90/56 SO/BB rate. His success on balls in play was purely driven by his blazing speed and though he would need to add strength as he moved up, it was heartening to see him utilize his greater tool to such effect.

In 2006, Arizona promoted Bonifacio to the high-A Lancaster JetHawks in the hitter-friendly California League. He flourished. In 130 games, he hit .321/.375/.449 with 35 doubles, 7 triples, 7 home runs and a 104/44 SO/BB ratio. He also ran wild under the tutelage of former speedster Brett Butler, swiping 61 bases in 75 tries. He led the league in steals and was named a California League All-Star. He continued to play exclusively at the keystone but piled up his third-consecutive 20+ error season. He was capable at second but many wondered if he’d eventually be better suited for super-utility work. He was still just 21 and held no shortage of intrigue. The question was whether his bat would stand up in AA.

He was given the chance to prove it in 2007, advancing to the Mobile BayBears of the Southern League. He put up a decent line overall, hitting .285/.333/.352 with 28 XBH, 41 stolen bases and a 105/38 SO/BB in 132 games, now splitting his time between second and shortstop. He again led the league and system in steals. But he’d also crossed the century mark for strikeouts, a no-no for speedsters with groundball tendencies. Walking more – or even putting the ball in play – would invariably help his cause. Still, Arizona rewarded his quality campaign with a late-season call-up, utilizing his speed and versatility down the stretch. He played in just 11 games but got his first hit off Tim Lincecum and put up a .217/.333/.261 line. Up on the big club, Orlando Hudson, Stephen Drew and Mark Reynolds were all reasonably young and established. So Bonifacio would have to earn his roster spot as a reserve. Probably using some time at AAA to refine all aspects of his game.

That’s where Bonifacio began 2008 as a 23-year old with the Tucson Sidewinders of the Pacific Coast League. The hard infields and elevated locales were a perfect match for his skills and Bonifacio hit .302/.348/.387 in 85 games. He managed a tolerable 64/27 SO/BB rate and chipped in 17 steals. The Diamondbacks recalled him in July to help replace the injured Eric Byrnes but the Snakes only started Bonifacio twice in three weeks and he struggled: .167/.167/.250. Following a 90-win season, Arizona sat two games below .500 a week before the trade deadline and decided to trade Bonifacio to the Washington Nationals for reliever Jon Rauch.

The Nationals started Bonifacio in AAA with the Columbus Clippers of the International League. But he didn’t give them the chance to keep him there long, hitting .452/.500/.516. The Nationals quickly released Felipe Lopez at the start of August, promptly installing Bonifacio at the top of their order as a second baseman. Washington’s lineup was as ugly as you’ll see. And Bonifacio held the job until season’s end, playing 41 games and hitting .248/.305/.344. He managed 5 triples but only 6 steals and just a 41/14 SO/BB rate. (Nats fans, there is a silver lining: all those bad lineups would yield a return of Stephen Strasburg the following April). Bonifacio spent his winter winning the Caribbean World Series with Tigres de Licey and appeared to have the inside track on Washington’s keystone entering 2009. But the Nationals were keen to make any upgrades available to them – and forgive me if you’ve heard this before – the Florida Marlins were shedding payroll. The result sent Bonifacio to south beach, with two prospects, for pitcher Scott Olsen and slugging outfielder Josh Willingham. Bonifacio had now been traded twice in just four months and it was unclear what role he would play on an emerging young Marlins team featuring the cheap, controllable talents of Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez in the middle of the diamond.

Bonifacio helped make the Marlins’ decision for them with a strong spring and an unforgettable Opening Day. He led off against his old Nationals teammates, playing third base, and went 4 for 5 with his first major league home run – an inside the park job, no less – and three stolen bases. Bonifacio was electric. And the Marlins looked like they had their future table-setter. He had 14 hits in the season’s first five games and seemed ready to take the league by storm, even if his defense at third was sub par.

Of course, the league eventually caught up to Bonifacio and although he spent the entire season in the majors, much of it was forgettable after opening week. All told, he hit .252/.303/.308 with just 18 XBH – including that lone home run – plus 21 steals and a 95/34 SO/BB ratio. He also showed a dreadful split, irritating lefties to no end (.315/.340/.364) but flailing badly against right-handers (.218/.284/.275). His playing time ultimately diminished in the second half along with his OPS (.628 vs. .560). The Marlins were in the hunt for the playoffs and their acquisition of Nick Johnson from Washington at the deadline shifted Jorge Cantu from first to third base, pushing Bonifacio into a reserve role. The playoffs never happened. Now, entering 2010, Bonifacio could only hope to make his mark as a reserve – but he had to make the team first.

He did, barely, and seldom got onto the field in two weeks before being dispatched to the AAA New Orleans Zephyrs. There, Bonifacio got back to his usual game, hitting for a passable average and getting on a bit. But he wasn’t driving the ball well or running enough to push those ahead of him. Florida recalled him in June after designating Mike Lamb for assignment. But he was firmly stuck behind Uggla and Ramirez, mostly serving as a pinch-runner. When he again saw regular duty in the fall, nothing about his numbers suggested it should continue. In 73 games, he hit .261/.320/.328 with just 9 extra-base hits and a 74 OPS+. He was useful for his speed and versatility, swiping 12 bags without getting caught, while filling in at 6 positions (2B,SS,3B,LF,CF,RF). Of course, he was also cheap. Giving the Marlins a prototypical super sub to call on in the late innings.

That’s how he started 2011 but it wasn’t long until injuries opened the door for more playing time and Bonifacio seized on it with an exhilarating career season. He played a career-high 152 games, swatting 26 doubles, 7 triples, 5 (!) home runs and chipping in 36 RBI on his way to a striking .296/.360./393 line, a 107 OPS+ and a 26-game hitting streak on his way to earning National League Player of the Month honours in July. He also nicked 40 bases against just 11 times caught, finishing as the NL’s second-best thief behind Michael Bourn. Bonifacio did all this while again filling in at those same six positions, logging significant time in left, centre, third and short. He still struck out a lot (129 times) for a leadoff man, but his walk rate spiked, too (8.5%). He still showed vastly better results against southpaws (.333/.407/.456) but raised his line against righties enough (.286/.347/.377) to justify play in all situations. Significantly, he also stayed healthy while others around him fell off. His versatility remained a huge asset but his bat now made him worth slotting in regularly. Bonifacio was just entering his age 27 season and appeared primed to begin his prime as a dynamic weapon in the Florida attack.

Miami’s offseason overhaul left no room for Bonifacio in the infield but he remained a fit in centre and started there Opening Day batting between Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez. Pretty desirable real estate. Through seven weeks, Bonifacio was reaching base (.351) and had a clean 20-for-20 stolen base count. But then he jammed his thumb nabbing second and landed on the disabled list for the first time in his career. The injury would cost him 46 games and later become re-aggravated in August. A week after finally returning, he sprained his right knee and was shut down for the season. His splits show a clear tale of two seasons: the healthy first half (.268/.351/.315) and the injury-ravaged summer (.242/.294/.316). He still managed 30 steals against only 3 time caught. And, for the first time in his career, his platoon splits were reversed (.506 OPS vs. LHP, .726 OPS vs. RHP). It was obviously a campaign marred by poor health. Incredibly, his speed still made him valuable even when his other tools were ravaged.

In November, he arrived in Toronto as perhaps the least heralded member of the Marlin Five. But a promising, versatile talent entering his age 27 season just one year removed from a breakout.

OUTLOOK

Though his name value pales in comparison to the headliners arriving in Toronto, Bonifacio possesses a great deal of value. It’s really hard not to be excited about what he brings to the table. World-class speed. A refined aggression on the basepaths that makes him one of the game’s most effective thieves. Incredible versatility. And functional switch-hitting, particularly against southpaws. As he enters what should be the prime of his career, he is under team control for two full seasons. He’s being given the opportunity to compete for the team’s second base job with Maicer Izturis (a switch-hitter who profiles better against righties) and should be very effective on Rogers Centre’s artificial surface as well as rolling over the lineup, pressure-free from the ninth position.

For Bonifacio, it’s practically a dream scenario. Expect him to become an instant fan favourite. Even if he doesn’t win a starting role outright, it’s hard to imagine Brett Lawrie and Jose Reyes playing 162 games. So I expect we’ll see long stretches with Bonifacio in the starting nine, particularly with Rajai Davis still on hand to serve as the team’s late-inning base-stealing ace. I anticipate Bonifacio will endure a few bumps and bruises. Errors in the field are to be expected, too. But don’t be surprised if he becomes a sparkplug extraordinaire and plays 120+ games with 35 steals and a .270/.339/.355 line.

Come playoff time, this is a guy Blue Jays’ fans will be glad to have on the bench.

STAT SHEET

Emilio Bonifacio, IF/OF
04/23/85            Bats: S             Throws: R       HT: 5-11        WT: 205
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
Signed: By the Arizona Diamondbacks as an amateur free agent December 27, 2001
Acquired: Trade with Miami Marlins on November 19, 2012
Contract Status: Third-time arbitration eligible in 2014. Eligible for free agency in 2015
Salary: $2,600,000
Service Time: 4.006

After a mediocre season in 2011, the back end of the Blue Jays bullpen was in need of a makeover. Many analysts targeted Francisco Cordero as a potential closer option, citing his 327 career saves and affordable price tag. Instead, Toronto boldly acquired Sergio Santos. But in a neat twist they signed Cordero anyway, giving them an experienced mentor for Santos and a quality Plan B. Cordero wasn’t always seen as a power reliever. Now he sits 12^th all-time in saves. Here’s an in-depth look at how that happened - and how long we can reasonably expect him to remain effective.

PROFILE

Francisco Cordero was signed by the Detroit Tigers as a minor league free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 1994. He is a cousin of former Blue Jays first baseman Domingo Martinez. He began his career at 16 in the Dominican Summer League, going 4-3, with a 3.90 ERA in 12 games before moving to North America in 1995.

Back then, Cordero was actually a starter in the Tigers system. He kicked off his first year stateside with the low-A Fayetteville Generals and short-season Jamestown Jammers. He had a live fastball but struggled with consistency, going 4-10, 5.42 in 108 innings with a 73/49 SO/BB in 18 starts.

He started 1997 in extended spring training before returning briefly to Fayetteville and Jamestown. In June he injured his elbow and missed the rest of the year. He only threw 18 innings but his elevated 8.5 SO/9 stood out. Cordero had an explosive fastball and a nasty slider at this point. Power stuff. When he returned, the Tigers converted him into a closer to lessen the stress on his arm. The switch sped up his timeline to the majors. And changed the course of his career.

Healthy again in 1997, Cordero starred for the West Michigan Whitecaps of the Midwest League, going 6-1, 0.99 in 54.1 IP with a 67/15 SO/BB for a slick 11.1 SO/9 rate. He also collected 35 saves, earned the Tigers’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year honours and heard raves from scouts. Baseball America called him the best prospect in the league and he was now seen universally as a legitimate relief arm. In the offseason, he consolidated his gains playing winter ball in the Dominican for Leones del Escogido. The Tigers hoped to fast-track Cordero through their system and skipped him skip past high-A.

He started the 1998 season with the AA Jacksonville Suns, at one point setting up for Matt Anderson, the former first overall pick, whom the Tigers had a lot invested in. But Cordero pitched only 17 games before suffering another serious arm injury – this time a stress fracture to his right elbow – and underwent season-ending surgery in July. The Tigers would have to wait. When healthy, Cordero’s stuff was still dynamic. But injuries were now threatening to derail his career.

Cordero managed to start the following season on time. He was reassigned to Jacksonville but this time he excelled. In 47 games, he went 4-1, 1.38 in 52.1 IP with 58 SO (a 10.0 SO/9) and 22 BB. He paced the Southern League with 27 saves and was named its Pitcher of the Year. He also pitched in the Futures Games in July. The Tigers were set at closer with Todd Jones. But they were terrible otherwise and couldn’t resist getting a look at Cordero in the majors. They called him up in August and he stormed out of the gate, throwing up zeroes across his first 11 appearances. He finished 2-2, 3.32 but he was also walking almost a batter an inning (19/18 SO/BB in 19IP) and was sometimes criticized for overthrowing. Nothing unusual for a rookie. Elsewhere, Anderson always seemed to be hurt or flailing. So Cordero represented hope. He was chosen to transport home plate from storied Tiger Stadium to the new Comerica Park (with Jeff Weaver and, yes, Anderson) and had an inside track at a bullpen job entering 2000. But Detroit was looking for a bankable star to bring fans to Comerica and sent Cordero to Texas as part of a six-player package for Juan Gonzalez. Twelve years later, Cordero’s generated a higher WAR than any player in the deal. Juan Gone included.

He made the Rangers out of spring training and won his first appearance, ultimately spending most of 2000 learning on the job in the Texas bullpen. In 56 games, he went 1-4, 5.35 in 77.1 innings. He was very hittable (.285/.383/.475), especially against lefties (.310/.461/.496), and couldn’t harness his control (49/48 SO/BB). He also uncorked 7 wild pitches. Refinements were definitely needed. But with a 95+ mph fastball and a filthy slider to work with more chances would come.

Just not soon. In early 2001, Cordero suffered a stress fracture in his lower back and could only make 15 appearances between Texas and the Triple-A Oklahoma RedHawks. Lingering pain and tightness limited his workload but the minor league numbers he put up during his rehab were better than ever: 0-1, 0.59 with a 20/3 SO/BB rate in 15.1 IP. Cordero again seemed poised to assume a late-inning role in the Texas ‘pen – if he could keep himself on the field.

In 2002, Cordero finally broke through. He split time between Oklahoma and Texas, eventually giving the Rangers 39 games, 2-0, 1.79 in 45.1 IP with an impeccable 41/13 SO/BB line. He only gave up 2 runs after June 1 – an incredible span stretching 33 games and 38.1 innings. With Jeff Zimmerman sidelined by a blown-out elbow the Rangers struggled to close games – even trying Hideki Irabu there at one point. No one could hold Cordero off for long and he ultimately finished in the closer’s role, netting 10 saves. He landed on the shelf (again) in June with a right shoulder strain but rebounded splendidly. His injury history suggests a pitcher perpetually on the verge of breaking down. Instead, Cordero’s never missed time in the ten years since. Relievers are unpredictable like that.

Cordero looked ready to continue closing going into 2003. But Texas elected to sign veteran stopper Ugueth Urbina. Undeterred, Cordero just kept on performing and manager Buck Showalter ultimately turned to him more than any other Ranger. He lead the team with 73 games and went 5-8, 2.94 in a whopping 82.2 innings with a potent 90/38 SO/BB rate. Urbina was gone by midseason, Cordero finished with 15 saves and established himself as a full-time stopper. He had cemented himself at last.

He was even better in 2004: 3-4, 2.13, 71.2 IP with a 79/32 SO/BB line in 67 games and the Rangers improved by 16 wins, buoyed by Cordero’s franchise record 49 saves and 9.92 SO/9. He only gave up one home run and had streaks of 19 and 21 straight saves. Cordero made his first All-Star team and even received MVP votes. More of the same followed in 2005. Cordero secured 37 saves while also flashing a career-high 10.3 SO/9 and an excellent 14.2% swinging strike rate. He was now undeniably among baseball’s elite firemen.

But in 2006 Cordero got off to a dreadful start, blowing 5 saves in April and finishing the month with an 11.45 ERA. Showalter flinched and installed new free agent signing Akinori Otsuka in the ninth inning. Cordero was undeniably terrible. But the 55 plate appearance-sample size was small. Still, it seemed the damage was done. In mid-summer, with Texas chasing the Athletics and Angels, the Rangers sent Cordero to the Milwaukee Brewers for Carlos Lee (and a throw-in bat named Nelson Cruz). The Brewers badly needed a closer and Cordero embraced the change of scenery. He kicked off his Brewers career by converting 16 straight saves and finished 3-1, 1.69 with a 30/16 SO/BB rate. His walks spiked but still looked better than Derrick Turnbow’s. The Brewers (and Rangers) finished well out of the playoff race. But Cordero was now comfortable and set to play a leading role on an improving Brewers team.

And so it went. He pitched 66 games in 2007, going 0-4, 2.98 in 63.1 IP with a franchise-record 44 saves and a fantastic 86/18 SO/BB ratio. He generated a career-best 12.2 SO/9, a sterling 4.78 SO/BB and held hitters to a .218 BAA. He nailed down his first 22 saves in a row including 10 in April. Later, he earned saves on five consecutive days. He made the All-Star team and was a major reason the Brewers finished second in the NL Central. His home/road ERA splits were severe (1.09/6.55) but Cordero set himself up beautifully for his first crack at free agency. And cashed in with a four-year, $46 million deal with the fifth place Cincinnati Reds – the biggest contract ever signed by a relief pitcher at the time.

Over the next four years, Cordero gave the Reds exactly what they paid him for. He pitched 283 games, going 18-18, 2.96 in 279.1 innings with a cumulative 237/126 SO/BB and a whopping 150 saves. He made his third All-Star team in 2009 and helped the Reds win the NL Central in 2010. Alas, the Reds never got a lead and Cordero didn’t get to pitch in the playoffs. The Reds also rewarded his community work, nominating him for the Roberto Clemente Award. Dusty Baker rode him hard over the years, sometimes pitching him four and five days in a row. But Cordero didn’t miss any time. And only required one late-September microfracture procedure to remove a bone spur from his right foot. For the last decade, he’s been one of the most reliable and durable relievers in the game.

His 2011 season is very interesting. Cordero pitched 68 games, saving 37, and went 5-3, 2.45 in 69.2 IP – but with an underwhelming 49/22 SO/BB rate. His 5.43 SO/9 was the lowest of his career. But so was his 6.3 H/9. He also dramatically reduced the walks he allowed (2.84 BB/9, his best rate in 10 years) and produced a strong 1.02 WHIP. He had four bad outings before the All-Star break but managed an excellent 1.80 ERA in the second half. He was absolute murder on righties (.159/.245/.220) and showed he could still be effective against lefties (.243/.302/.435). He recorded an unsustainable .214 BABIP but also delivered the best ground ball (50.0%) and line drive rates (16.2%) of his career. He was tough to get on against. 20 of his 37 saves were 1-2-3 innings. Yet he lost some velocity on his fastball (down to 93 mph) and virtually threw it only 41.2% of the time – down from 66.7% in 2010. Instead, Cordero threw three times as many changeups (18.8% from 6.7%) and introduced a new show-me curveball (9.8%).

Many are attributing this change to declining stuff. Fair enough. He’s 37 in a month. But it’s possible Cordero’s fundamentally changing the way he attacks hitters. In interviews, Cordero insists he now strives to be more economical on the mound by inducing weak contact. The ground ball and line drive rates seem to back this up. The question moving forward is: Has a 37-year old closer reinvented himself as a crafty specialist or did he get lucky at the same time his stuff started to fade? We’ll soon find out.

OUTLOOK

In the new-look Jays bullpen, Cordero’s job is simple. He’ll be asked to enter close games, attack right-handed hitters and be prepared to slide into the ninth when called on. He should also guide Sergio Santos. Cordero still looks capable of doing all these things and there is no situation Santos will encounter this year that Cordero hasn’t seen.

He is now entering the Roberto Hernandez stage of his career. He may have fewer chances to influences games but will be but will be counted on for guidance and stability – especially with fastball-slider guys like Santos and Joel Carreno. He’s been worth 21.4 WAR in his career. Has saved 30 games 7 times and sits second among pitchers in saves and fifth in games pitched.Who could have guessed Cordero and Darren Oliver, teammates on the 2000 Texas Rangers, would still be going strong all these years later?

Expect Cordero to pound RHH, be more susceptible to home runs and rack up a whack of holds and add a few saves. His margin for error is shrinking and he could still break down at any time. But I’m betting there’s another season or two left.

STAT SHEET

Francisco Cordero, RP
05/11/75            Bats: R             Throws: R       HT: 6-3          WT: 245
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
Signed: By Detroit as an amateur free agent June 18, 1994.
Acquired: Signed by Toronto in February 2012.
Contract Status: Free Agent in 2013.
Salary: $4,500,000
Service Time: 12.046

Joel Carreno impressed during a brief audition with the Blue Jays in 2011. Here’s how the slender right-hander came to Toronto and a look at how he’ll contribute when he returns.

PROFILE

The Toronto Blue Jays signed Joel Carreno as an amateur free agent from the Dominican Republic in 2004. He hails from San Cristobal – the city where former Blue Jays rightfielder Raul Mondesi currently serves as mayor. Seriously. At 18, Carreno debuted for the DSL Blue Jays, striking out 29 batters in 30.1 innings split between starting and relieving.

He returned as a full-time starter in 2006, going 8-3, 1.53 with an 86/28 SO/BB ratio in 82.1 IP. In 15 starts, he allowed only 14 earned runs and allowed opposing batters to hit just .168. He gave up only 2 home runs and controlled the strike zone. It was obviously a great performance and he was only 19.

In 2007, Carreno transitioned to North America with the rookie-level Gulf Coast League Jays, making 12 starts and going 6-4, 2.62 in 65.1 IP with a solid 64/13 SO/BB ratio. His fastball rated a tick above average with good movement and helped him lead the league in strikeouts.

He graduated to short-season Auburn in 2008, starting 13 games and going 5-5, 3.42 in 76.1 IP with a terrific 85/19 SO/BB rate. He earned pitcher of the week honours in July during a stretch where he struck out 21 batters over two starts and played his way onto the All-Star team. His sneaky fastball continued to sit between 91-93 mph and he was now also throwing a passable changeup. He was now beginning to flash some ceiling and was ready for full-season ball.

In 2009, visa issues stalled the start of Carreno’s season. But he soon picked up where he left off, throwing two dominating starts for Auburn (1-0, 0.82, 11 IP, 12/3 SO/BB) and earning a promotion to the Lansing Lugnuts of the Midwest League. He fared well there, too, starting 14 games with a 2-4, 3.62 line in 79.2 IP and a 62/29 SO/BB ratio. Significantly, he learned to throw a hard, sweeping slider that quickly became his best pitch. His control had slipped a bit but he was still striking hitters out and keeping the ball in the park (just 5 HR allowed). Carreno also fielded his position well and showed an advanced pickoff move thanks to quick feet and short hands. He finished the season with an outstanding August (2-0, 2.61ERA, 11ER, 38IP, 29K) and looked like a definite sleeper prospect that could rise through the system quickly entering 2010.

But Toronto was taking its time with Carreno, letting him master each level before promoting him. They advanced him to the Dunedin Blue Jays and he responded by blowing away most of his career highs. He pitched 27 games, starting 25, and went 9-6, 3.73 in 137.2 IP with an outstanding 173/30 SO/BB line. If not for a crazy .381 BABIP, his stat line might’ve looked even better. The season was a tremendous success. Carreno struck out an incredible 11.3 SO/9 and broke Dunedin’s all-time punchout record, highlighted by a thrilling 15-K game (itself a new Florida State League record), and finished second in the league in strikeouts behind only mega-prospect Matt Moore. He’d also issued virtually the same number of walks as he did 2009 while facing improved competition and topping his career high in innings by more than 40. Carreno’s slider now rated as a plus pitch and he felt comfortable throwing it in any count. To boot, his short path to first also resulted in 10 pickoffs. Toronto was being careful with his workload and shut him down before he could get a taste of AA. Perhaps because of his wiry reliever’s build and methodical career path he still didn’t appear on many prospect lists even though his statistical output probably warranted it. At 23, he was a bit old for the level but looked AA-ready and perhaps even capable of helping in the majors.

Promoted to AA New Hampshire to begin 2011, Carreno did not disappoint. He pitched 24 games, going 7-9, 3.41 in 134.2 IP, giving up only 100 hits and registering a 152/68 SO/BB. Still very solid – though observers now differed in their opinion of his fastball. Some saw decent movement and felt he just needed better command. Others felt it was only an average pitch. And there were suggestions that Carreno sometimes got himself in trouble by relying too much on his slider. That’s understandable. It was a consensus plus pitch that seemed certain to play as a strikeout weapon in the majors. But the most patient AA hitters learned to lay off it and Carreno’s wild pitches sprung to 16 in part due to the pitch’s sharp bite. Still, he had K’d a very impressive 10.2/9, leading the Blue Jays minor league system, and dramatically cut his hit rate while also advancing a level. He was ready. Toronto recognized it and called him up in August to work out of the bullpen. He proved highly reliable in 15.2 IP, going 1-0, 1.15 with a 14/4 SO/B rate and only 11 hits allowed. He threw his slider a ton (52.9% of the time) but it was so lethal against righties (.161 BAA) he rarely had to turn to his other stuff. He was undeniably lucky, limiting hitters to an .083 (2 for 24) average with runners on base (resulting in an unsustainable 95.6% strand rate) but showed good mound presence and worked his way through jams without coming unglued. All told, it was yet another strong season from a player with a track record of consistently outperforms his scouting reports.

OUTLOOK

Carreno will likely begin 2012 with the AAA Las Vegas 51s as a starting pitcher. Toronto’s been very methodical with his development and, though he is major league-ready now, the team is deep enough for him to work on his secondary pitches away from the AL East. The Blue Jays will eventually need another starter this year and, since Carreno’s arm remains stretched out, he is among a small group who’ll receive consideration when that time comes. First he has to further harness his fastball and find some separation with his change.

Ultimately, I see Carreno’s future in the bullpen as a late-inning weapon against right-handed hitters. Think along the lines of Octavio Dotel. I don’t think he becomes as dominant as Dotel was in his prime but he should hang around the majors a long time. Of course, I might be selling Carreno short, too. There hasn’t been much winning in betting against him so far. It’s interesting that the Blue Jays have been so deliberate promoting him when you consider the numbers he’s put up. The consolidation time hasn’t hurt him. In Jason Frasor and Casey Janssen, the Toronto bullpen currently features two guys who’ve made careers out of overachieving past the scouting notes on their files. Carreno is cut from a similar cloth. Don’t be surprised if he spends a lot of time in Toronto this summer and finds success again.

STAT SHEET

Joel Carreno, RP
03/07/87            Bats: R             Throws: R       HT: 6-0          WT: 190
San Cristobal, Dominican Republic
Signed: By Toronto as an amateur free agent October 11, 2004.
Contract Status: Eligible for arbitration in 2016.
Salary: $481,700
Service Time: 0.041

The hopes of this year’s Toronto Blue Jays rest largely on the performance of the team’s mid-rotation starters. One of those expected to play a major role is 21-year old right-hander Henderson Alvarez. Let’s take a look at the path he’s taken to Toronto and what we can likely expect from him this year and beyond.

PROFILE

Henderson Alvarez was signed by the Toronto Blue Jays as a free agent from Venezuela in 2006. He made his debut in 2007 in the Dominican Summer League as a 17-year old, going 1-2, 5.61 with a 20/8 SO/BB ratio in 25.2 IP. He was obviously raw and also very hittable posting a 12.6 H/9 but showed a decent strikeout rate and overall command.

The Jays moved him to their rookie-level Gulf Coast affiliate in 2008 where he made 11 starts and had a line of 1-4, 5.63 with a 34/6 SO/BB rate in 46.1 IP. His hit rate was again high (12.2H/9) but defense in the lower minors is often unrefined and since  Alvarez’s best pitch was a power sinker, there was hope the hits would diminish in front of better fielders. Again note the impressive command. His above-average velocity also attracted notice but some questioned whether Alvarez could develop the rest of his repertoire enough to keep hitters from keying on the fastball.

He broke through in 2009 at low-A Lansing, starting 23 games for a 9-6, 3.47 line, with a 92/19 SO/BB ratio in 124.1 IP. He continued to show excellent downward movement on his fastball, resulting in a good ground-ball rate of 51.4%. He allowed only home run. Over his first three seasons (196.1 IP) opposing hitters had only taken him deep 4 times. Lansing plays as a pitcher’s park but the numbers were still impressive and Alvarez was still a teenager. Reports also showed very good development of the changeup. These strides and his ability to translate them across the increased workload boosted optimism about his overall ceiling and potential to stay a starter long-term.

Toronto advanced him to High-A Dunedin in 2010 and he held his own going 8-7, 4.33 with a 78/27 SO/BB in 112.1 IP earning a selection to the Futures Game. His control slipped slightly but many attributed it to a greater focus on the development of a curveball. The pitch was unreliable at this point and many wondered if he could pass the AA test without a more effective breaking ball. He faded badly down the stretch with an ERA of 6.00 after the All-Star Break. Further concerns about his slight build and a delivery that some labeled high-effort led some to project him as a future reliever at this point. But the organization insisted he  would keep starting until he proved he couldn’t.

The Jays’ confidence paid off in 2011. After beginning the year with a stint on the disabled list and a couple of subsequent rehab starts in Dunedin, Alvarez advanced to AA New Hampshire and delivered an 8-4, 2.86 line with a 66/17 SO/IP rate in 88 IP and again appeared in the Futures Game. New Hampshire clocked Alvarez’s velocity at a new height – sitting close to 96 MPH and even touching 101 at times. His strikeout rate slipped but the control remained excellent. By now he was also throwing a curve and slider – though both were still seen as fringy. Even as mere ‘show-me’ pitches, the breaking balls were able to induce weaker contact off the sinker. The Blue Jays called him up in August and he made 10 starts, going 1-3, 3.53 with a 40/8 SO/BB in 63.2 IP, at one point reeling off 14 straight shutout innings. He showed impressive athleticism and fields his position well. This as one of the youngest players in the league. He lost his rookie eligibility and enters 2012 as the Blue Jays likely 4^th starter.

OUTLOOK

It’s important to remember that Alvarez will still only be 21 on Opening Day. With his raw ability and deep reluctance to give up walks there is a lot to be excited about here and the debate about his upside continues. Alvarez showed last year that his fastball-changeup combination is strong enough to position him as a starter moving forward. Whether he is a third (or fourth) man or something more depends on further refinements to his breaking pitches. In 2012, 71% of Alvarez’s pitches were fastballs. That’s incredibly hard to sustain multiple times through a major league order. Without adjustments, experienced lineups will exploit his lack of another out pitch in his second tour of the league. This will be the key to his season. Alvarez will also have to throw more quality strikes this year to keep his hit rate manageable and the prevent the ball from leaving the yard. This will likely come with experience and all reports on his willingness to work with the coaching staff are exemplary.

Toronto will give Alvarez every opportunity to seize a starter’s spot and run with it so that he can develop at the major league level. I take an optimistic view on Alvarez. While I expect he will battle inconsistency at times I also think he’ll contribute 25+ starts and establish himself as a capable third man behind Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow. That would make him either a future cornerstone of the Jays rotation – or a very valuable trade chip.

STAT SHEET

Henderson Alvarez, SP
04/18/90            Bats: R             Throws: R       HT: 6-1          WT: 195
Valencia, Venezuela
Signed: By Toronto as an amateur free agent October 17, 2006.
Contract Status: Eligible for arbitration in 2016.
Salary: $482,900
Service Time: 0.051