Meet the man who may possess the nastiest arm on the Toronto Blue Jays staff, Steve Delabar. (Anthony Bolante/Reuters).

Five months ago, the Toronto Blue Jays traded their starting left fielder for Steve Delabar. It was a bold acquisition. Delabar was a year out of A-ball and about eighteen months removed from being out of the game altogether. In Toronto, he found his stride quickly, writing the next chapter in what’s already an incredible story of perseverance. Let’s look at his background as we try to determine how big a role he can assume in the Blue Jays’ new-look bullpen.

PROFILE

The Anaheim Angels drafted Steve Delabar in the 43^rd round, 1283^rd overall, of the 2002 MLB Amateur Draft out of Volunteer State Community College in northern Tennessee. He chose not to sign and re-entered the draft in 2003 where he was selected by the San Diego Padres in the 29^th round, 851^st overall. In the same draft, the Padres selected Dirk Hayhurst with their eighth pick – 21 rounds and 630 picks before Delabar. If Hayhurst was the poster-boy for non-prospects, Delabar was the leaflet.

He didn’t begin his pro career immediately but eventually signed with San Diego in May 2004 as a draft-and-follow. He began his pro career with the Arizona League Padres before receiving a late promotion to the short-season Eugene Emeralds. He was used as a swingman and put up pretty pedestrian numbers between the two levels: 17 games, 9 of them starts, going 4-5, 3.90 in 62.1 innings with a 50/24 SO/BB ratio for a 7.2 K/9 with a 1.41 WHIP.

He spent all of 2005 starting in Eugene with similar results: 16 games, 4-6, 4.76 in 75.2 IP with a 59/18 SO/BB and a 1.35 WHIP. The only growth he showed was an improved walk rate. At age 22, Delabar was still in short-season ball and looked like he’d be lucky to hold on as organizational filler.

San Diego promoted him to the full-season Fort Wayne TinCaps in 2006 and he continued to hold his own but did little to stand out. In 27 starts, he went 8-9 with a 3.41 ERA in 145 IP with a 118/65 SO/BB and a 1.34 WHIP. He essentially survived by avoiding contact, surrendering a very good 8.0 H/9 and giving up just 8 home runs. But the result was a tremendous decline in his control and his walk rate surged from 2.1 BB/9 up to 4.0 BB/9. Guys like this fill the low minors for every team in baseball.

In 2007, the Padres converted him to relief with the high-A Lake Elsinore Storm. But Delabar struggled badly (2-6, 5.59, 29 IP, 33/16 SO/BB, 5.0 BB/9) in the brutal pitching environs of the California League and he was soon back in Fort Wayne. A forgotten man. Worse, he was absolutely shelled, with a 5.96 ERA and 48/46 SO/BB rate in 21 games and 68 IP. The walks worsened further (to a brutal 5.8 BB/9) and cost him time and again. It was a dreadful campaign. The only upside in his stat line was his 10.2K/9 rate as a reliever with Lake Elsinore. But he was now 24 and failing against A-ball competition. His place in the organization and, indeed, his baseball future was now in jeopardy.

The Padres gave him one last chance to hold onto a job in the Fort Wayne bullpen in 2008. But he sprained an ankle in April and, when he wasn’t hurt, disappointed on the mound: 11 games, a 5.27 ERA, in 13.2 innings with a 12/5 SO/BB rate and a 1.61 WHIP. The Padres finally cut him loose in May. No one else took a chance on him, either. Delabar did manage to catch on briefly with the Florence Freedom of the Frontier League and then the Brockton Rox of the independent Canadian-American Association. But his path back to organized baseball was now obscured and any prospects of realizing his major league dream were dim.

Delabar returned to Broxton in 2009 but his season ended in ruin. He suffered a fractured right elbow requiring the insertion of a steel plate and nine screws in the elbow to stabilize it. It was a serious arm injury and the recovery would also cost him the entire 2010 season. To most, it appeared Delabar’s baseball career was over.

Unable to play competitively, he returned home to Kentucky to work as a substitute teacher. The only game he could get into was a local slow pitch softball league. Hilariously Obscure Trivia Alert: Delabar won the 2010 Louisville Invitational Tournament’s Home Run Derby. He also began a velocity improvement program to learn tools that he thought might benefit the students he was teaching. But the experiment started working on him. With an emphasis on gaining strength and arm speed, Delabar soon found he could consistently dial his velocity up to 93 MPH – a huge leap from his earlier 89. He soon found he could touch 96. It was an incredible piece of rehab training. That’s when the instructor, Joe Newton, reached out to the Seattle Mariners to secure Delabar a tryout. His rehab complete, Delabar convinced the Mariners he was worth a minor league contract. It was April and the season had already started but Delabar was now back in organized ball almost three years after being cut.

Seattle started him back in the California League with the High Desert Mavericks. Given his injury history, he would now be used strictly as a reliever. Delabar was about to turn 28 and facing college juniors. But he cleared the mental hurdles of returning from surgery and held his own, pitching in 7 games with a 4.38, 20/8 SO/BB line in 12.1 IP. His control was poor but the Mariners took note of the 14.6 SO/9 rate and promoted him quickly to the AA Jackson Generals of the Southern League. There he threw in 23 games and went 1-3, 2.05 in 30.2 innings with an alarming 30/26 SO/BB rate. His K/9 dipped expectedly and his walk rate was now surging to an untenable 7.6 BB/9. Seattle promoted him again, anyway, this time to the AAA Tacoma Rainiers of the Pacific Coast League. Something clicked. 10 games, 1-1, 0.69 in 13 IP with an 18/6 SO/BB. He looked like a new pitcher.

The Mariners rewarded those results by calling him up when rosters expanded in September. He debuted at home against Kansas City with a scoreless inning and two strikeouts then won his first game three days against the New York Yankees. In all, he got into 6 games, going 1-1, 2.57, 7 IP with a 7/4 SO/BB rate. It was an extraordinary season. The kind TV movies are written about. After shipping bullpen parts in summer trades, the Mariners were ready to pencil him into their retooled bullpen going into 2012. It tooks Delabar 9 years to get out of A-ball. Now, after all the pain and failure, he’d made it to the show in 6 months.

Delabar made the Mariners out of spring training and opened the season with the team in Japan. But his stayed only lasted until the end of May. His peripheral stats were very strong. But in two months, Delabar surrendered seven home runs in just 24.1 innings. Bullpen meltdowns were all-too-common for the 2012 Mariners and, coupled with the team’s impotent offence, fatal. Delabar was dispatched to Tacoma and rode the shuttle back and forth until the trade deadline, when Seattle traded him to the Toronto Blue Jays for outfielder Eric Thames. Most Blue Jays’ fans were more concerned with the simultaneous acquisition of Brad Lincoln (for fan favourite Travis Snider) and Delabar’s arrival flew under the radar. That didn’t last long.

He quickly became a favourite of manager John Farrell’s and even received a moment of national attention for becoming the first pitcher in major league history to strike out four batters in one extra inning (he’s also the only Blue Jay ever to strike out four batters in one frame) in August. His combined line was a career-high 61 games, 4-3, 3.82 in 66 innings with a terrific 92/26 SO/BB ratio. In Toronto, Delabar managed to throw his fastball for quality strikes rather than pitches hitters could drive. It sets up a devastating splitfinger that’s a major weapon and is almost impossible for hitters to drive when located effectively. Delabar only gave up 3 home runs after arriving in Toronto and saw his strong strikeout rate leap to astronomical levels (11.3K/9 to 14.1 K/9). Despite a bit of comman regression, he still managed a 3.07 xFIP.

One of the reasons for his increased success is clearly his increased use of the splitter. Delabar threw just 60% fastballs in 2012 against almost 35% splitters – one of the highest rates in baseball. It’s particularly effective tailing away from left-handed hitters, which resulted in a .171/.246/.551 linefrom southpaws. He also features a toy slider with video game bite. But the pitch isn’t refined and he can at times struggle to control it. The 4-strikeout inning and 6 wild pitches show he’s not an easy pitcher to catch. When everything’s working, he’s even harder to hit. Delabar now appears poised to log important middle and late innings for the Blue Jays in 2013.

OUTLOOK

Steve Delabar enters 2013 as a potentially devastating weapon in the Blue Jays’ bullpen. Not many teams have the luxury of turning to a power arm with this kind of stuff in the middle innings. But if Casey Janssen is his usual, reliable self and Sergio Santos returns to health, that’s likely the role Toronto will use Delabar in. He’s not a sure bet. His struggles with command are well-documented. He must also keep the ball in the park and stay healthy.

But if Delabar can pick up where he left off, his acquisition will deserve to go down as one of the great under-the-radar moves of Alex Anthopoulos’ tenure. Very quietly, the reliever finished 2012 with the sixth-highest strikeout rate in baseball (min. 60IP). If you look at just his Toronto numbers, he jumps to third. Relievers come with no guarantees, but Delabar has a rare arm. He won’t be eligible for arbitration until at least 2015 and free agency until 2018. By then, he could be closing for someone or teaching again.

Delabar’s story makes him easy to root for. Here’s hoping it’s the former.

STAT SHEET

Steve Delabar, RP
07/17/83            Bats: R             Throws: R       HT: 6-5          WT: 220
Fort Knox, Kentucky                     College: Volunteer State (Gallatin, TN)
Drafted by San Diego in the 29^th round, 851^st overall, of the 2003 MLB Amateur Draft.
Acquired: Traded to Toronto on July 30, 2012.
Contract Status: Not eligible for arbitration before 2015.
Salary: $480,700
Service Time: 0.023

Robert Coello has a power arm but he’s still learning how to get big league hitters out. (Bryan Green)

Robert Coello may be the most anonymous man on the Toronto Blue Jays roster. Indeed, his journey to the majors is one of the most circuitous on the team. So who is he? Let’s take a look at Coello’s story and what he can bring to the Blue Jays bullpen.

PROFILE

The Kansas City Royals drafted Robert Coello in the 46^th round, 1353^rd overall, out of Lake Region High School in central Florida in the 2003 draft. As a catcher. A high school student with options, Coello chose not to sign and instead attended Northwest Florida State College (then known as Okaloosa-Walton Junior College) before re-entering the draft in 2004. This time, the Cincinnati Reds selected Coello in the 20^th round, 588^th overall and got him to sign on the dotted line.

He began 2005 in extended spring training but fractured a rib in June and missed the rest of the season. A lost year.

The next spring, before Coello ha’d ever played a game for them, the Reds released him. His pro career looked like it could be over before it started. But Coello stayed in shape through the summer and hooked on with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in September. With one catch – they wanted to convert him into a pitcher. At the time, Coello was clocked throwing 90+ mph to the bases. So he didn’t lack for arm strength.

He finally got on the field late in 2007 with the short-season, rookie-level Arizona League Angels. The competition was mostly teenagers – but Coello was only beginning his own development and acquitted himself well. Pitching out of the bullpen, he threw in 20 games and went 1-1, 1.37 in 26.1 innings with a 26/7 SO/BB ratio. But the Angels elected not to keep him and Coello was again a free agent.

But he persevered.

Coello journeyed to the independent leagues, and across the border, playing in Canada in the Golden Baseball League for the Calgary Vipers. He got off to a rocky start and found himself traded to the cross-province Edmonton Cracker-Cats by midseason. He struggled with his control in Edmonton but frequently pitched out of trouble against marginal competition and finished the season with a 3-1, 3.29 line in 41 innings and a 47/24 SO/BB ratio across 32 games. He had good raw stuff but the kind of command issues to be expected from a pitcher with 60-odd innings of professional experience. Still, his performance was enough to catch the attention of the Boston Red Sox who signed him in November. That didn’t stop him from playing winter ball, and working as a starter, for the Algodoneros de Guasave. After years of false starts, and a year in virtual baseball exile, Coello signed with Boston and was headed back into organized ball.

He started the year with the AAA Pawtucket Red Sox, making one appearance, before beginning his expected assignment with the high-A Salem Red Sox of the Carolina League. He showed nasty strikeout stuff on the way to an excellent season: 33 games, 5-3, 2.05 in 66 innings with an 82/34 SO/BB rate and a 1.09 WHIP. The strikeout rate (11.2/9) was exceptional but he fought his control to an unsustainable (4.6/9) walk rate. Once again the positives easily outweighed the negatives for a guy in first year of full-season ball, still learning how to pitch. Opponents hit only .167 off him and he didn’t give up a run in his last ten outings, covering 18.2 IP, including three appearances in the playoffs. Coello flashed potential but needed more minor league time to harness his stuff.

Boston agreed and to begin 2010 assigned Coello to the AA Portland Sea Dogs. He worked as a swingman in 14 games, going 4-1, 3.32 in 43.1 IP and an impressive 51/14 SO/BB ratio. His 3.64 SO/BB ratio was a career best and the improved command earned him a promotion to Pawtucket. The PawSox desperately needed him and worked Coello hard. He pitched in 18 games en route to a 3-5 record and 4.22 ERA across 64 innings. His command slipped a bit, leading to a 79/30 SO/BB line but he was still striking guys out (11.1/9), though his walk rate (4.2/9) was slipping fast. Batters again struggled to make consistent contact against him (.192 BAA) but drove the ball when they did (10 HR allowed). Still, between the two levels, he’d managed to lead all Red Sox farmhands with 130 strikeouts and again finished his season on a high note while pitching out of the PawSox bullpen. In 9 relief outings his ERA was 1.40 (3 ER/19.1 IP) with a 24/9 SO/BB line.

His changeup was lacklustre and his curveball registered as a fringe-level, show-me pitch. But Coello could bring the heat, often touching 95 mph, and looked like he might have a future in the pen. In a neat twist, the future came quickly. In September, Boston rewarded his impressive minor league numbers and allowed him to realize a dream. He made his major league debut at home, against Tampa Bay, and got into 6 total games going, 0-0, 4.76 with a 5/5 SO/BB rate, holding opponents scoreless in 5 of 6 appearances. It was a dream season. But that would soon gives way to a harsher reality. The following February, just days before pitchers and catchers were to report for spring training, Boston signed relievers Alfredo Aceves and Dennys Reyes to bolster their bullpen, designating Coello for assignment to accommodate them. Ultimately, he was traded to the Chicago Cubs for minor league utility guy Tony Thomas. Like that, Coello was a Cub. He would have to prove himself to a new organization – one with little investment in him compared to the Red Sox.

He did begin 2011 on the Cubs’ 40-man roster,  assigned him to the AAA Iowa Cubs. He began the year as a starter but eventually became more of a swingman; sometimes starting games, sometimes finishing them. He piled up a 4-5 record and 6.52 ERA in the rotation – brutal numbers, even for the Pacific Coast League – but Chicago couldn’t afford to move him to the bullpen. They needed his innings. They were having the same problem in the majors and in May signed journeyman Rodrigo Lopez to bail out their limping rotation. Again, Coello found himself D’dFA to make room. This time, he cleared waivers and was outrighted to the AA Tennessee Smokies where he worked as a starter for 4 games, going 1-2, 3.00 in 21 innings with a 16/7 SO/BB ratio, fighting his way back to Iowa. He spent the balance of the season in AAA, pitching out of the bullpen full-time beginning in July. Like in 2010, the results were impressive – 19 appearances, a 1.01 ERA, a .149 BAA with 42 SO in 35.2 innings. Put together, he totalled 30 games, going 6-6, 4.45 in 95 innings with a 94/41 SO/BB ratio. By now, the book on Coello was out: Good stuff, real velocity, questionable command. He turned 27 during the offseason and, with the Cubs rebuilding, found himself a free agent again. His best shot at success was to catch on somewhere as a reliever and hope for an opportunity. He played winter ball in Venezuela and, in December, signed a minor league contract with the Blue Jays.

Toronto seemed a decent fit for Coello. Though the team had a host of relief options in the majors, many in the organization were familiar with Coello’s resume (manager John Farrell was the Red Sox pitching coach in 2010 and first base coach Torey Luvullo managed the PawSox the same year) and keen to tap into his arsenal. Coello also helped his cause by pitching well in spring training before heading to AAA Las Vegas to work as a reliever and spot starter. By now, he’d abandoned his fringe curve in favour of a hard slider. His forkball, called “funky” this year by Farrell, can also be effective. He’s been one of the 51s’ most reliable arms so far, pitching to a 4-1, 3.00 line in 42 IP with just 31 hits allowed and a 43/18 SO/BB ratio in 19 games. In May, the Blue Jays’ bullpen needed bailing out and he was added to the 40-man roster.

OUTLOOK

Coello’s journey to the show has followed a winding road through unconventional outposts. At 27, he now has the best opportunity of his career to stick in the majors for an extended run. The early returns are encouraging: 0-1, 3.60 in 5 innings with 8 strikeouts and 2 walks. The Blue Jays will likely fight to fill innings the rest of the season and, if Coello can continue his early success, it would surely help the team bridge some big middle innings. His ability to throw multiple frames is a big asset. And it doesn’t hurt that John Farrell’s already a fan. It’s not impossible to think he could even start in a pinch before the season’s over.

Coello can reach back and find plus velocity on his fastball – 95 at times, sitting at 92-93 – and there might still be a bit of development in his forkball and slider. Because his arm strength is combined with a funky delivery he still projects best as a middle or possibly late-inning reliever. First he’ll have to prove that he can use his stuff to consistently get major league hitters out. With their rotation decimated, the Jays are in survival mode now. For Coello, that means not all of his opportunities will be ideal. Same goes for Jesse Chavez, Aaron Laffey and Evan Crawford. But it’s a shot. I expect Coello will battle consistency at times, piling up strikeouts in stretches but probably walks, too. Look for him to get heavy usage the rest of the way, finishing in the majors, and possibly finishing with a run of success like he’s experienced in the minors. A line of 2-4, 4.75, 45 IP, 40/25 SO/BB seems right.

STAT SHEET

Robert Coello, RP
11/23/84            Bats: R             Throws: R       HT: 6-5          WT: 250
Bayonne, New Jersey              College: Okaloosa-Walton College (Niceville, Florida)
Drafted by Cincinnati in the 20^th round, 588^th overall, of the 2004 MLB Amateur Draft.
Acquired: Signed as a free agent December 2011.
Contract Status: Not eligible for arbitration before 2016.
Salary: N/A
Service Time: 0.029

Rajai Davis returns for his second year with the Blue Jays in a new role as a reserve outfielder and pinch runner. Davis can be one of the most exciting players to watch in any game. But hitting limitations continue to hold him back. Interestingly, Davis hit well in his minor league career. Let’s look at his case to see what’s happened since – and whether there may still be more to his game than speed.

PROFILE

The Pittsburgh Pirates drafted Rajai Davis in the 38^th round, 1134^th overall, of the 2001 amateur draft out of the University of Connecticut. At the time, he was an extremely athletic switch-hitting (!) second baseman (!!) but Pittsburgh profiled him as a centre fielder due to his great range and plus speed. It was a tough draft for the Pirates. They chose injury bust John Van Benschoten 8^th overall and also selected Jeremy Guthrie and Stephen Drew but couldn’t convince either to sign. Davis, however, signed quickly and got started with the short-season Williamsport Crosscutters before a reassignment to the rookie-level Gulf Coast League Pirates. He played in 32 games, hitting .240/.345/.250 with just one double and a problematic 30/15 SO/BB ratio. The walks looked good, but the whiffs were untenable and Davis showed zero power. He stole 11 bases in 15 tries. But speed was the only interesting part of his game.

Davis returned to the GCL in 2002 and ripped: .384/.436/.554 with 16 doubles, 5 triples, 4 home runs, an excellent 25/20 SO/BB line and 24 steals in 58 games. He was named the GCL’s Player of the Year and Pittsburgh granted him a late promotion to the South Atlantic League champion Hickory Crawdads. On the surface, the numbers looked great. He’d reached base in 61 of his 65 total games. But, at 21, Davis was old for these levels, and doing most of his damage against teenage competition. Still, he’d put himself on the organizational map and now had a shot at becoming more than low-level roster filler.

In 2003, Davis spent the whole season with Hickory and excelled. In 125 games, he hit .303/.383/.416 with 21 doubles, 7 triples and 6 HRs, a very strong 65/55 SO/BB and 40 steals in 53 tries. The extra-base hits were easily a career high and he led the Crawdads in several offensive categories. He also had an impressive 15 outfield assists – an indication that his great range surprised many baserunners – but also made 7 errors. He still wasn’t turning many heads. But it was a second straight campaign of good results. In the offseason, Davis decided to stop switch-hitting and dedicate himself to hitting right-handed going forward.

Unless you spent 2004 watching a lot of Lynchburg Hillcats games, you’d have been hard-pressed to notice. Pittsburgh promoted Davis to its high-A affiliate and he rewarded them with a virtual replica of his previous season: 127 games, .314/.388/.424 with 27 doubles, 7 triples, 5 HRs, and a terrific 60/59 SO/BB rate. He won the Carolina League batting title, made it All-Star team, and led the circuit in runs, hits and steals. It was quite incredible considering he’d done the whole thing right-handed. Better yet, his steals spiked as Davis nabbed 57 bases against just 15 times caught. He showed no obvious platoon split (hitting .325 vs. LHP, .312 vs. RHP) and finally attracted real interest as a burner prospect and potential major league leadoff man. He made 8 errors but clearly had all the tools to handle centre field. Pittsburgh added him to its 40-man roster in the offseason but he was still behind Nate McLouth and Chris Duffy on the Pirates’ prospect chart and was only now entering AA at 24.

Davis arrived in AA in 2005, playing 123 games with the Altoona Curve. His slash line dipped slightly (.281/.351/.369) but he produced similar counting stats (22 2B, 4 3B, 4 HR) and was again named a league All-Star. Unfortunately, his SO/BB rate declined to 76/43 against tougher competition. Playable, certainly, but worth monitoring. He also saw his contact, walk and slugging rates slip, costing him almost 100 points of OPS. But he continued to improve his base stealing, taking 45 of 54 attempts – an excellent 83% theft rate – and leading the league in steals. He might have been even more prolific but Davis was hit by a pitch and fractured his right hand in August, ending his season early and potentially costing him a late call-up. Hes again contributed 10 outfield assists but, curiously, also made 10 errors. Most were the result of bad reads on fly balls that he couldn’t rescue despite his speed. Davis appeared to be a useful pest but not a true leadoff threat. He could handle centre and provide a spark. But it looked like advanced pitchers would knock the bat out of his hands if his approach didn’t improve. He got healthy in time to play winter ball with Guasave in the Mexican winter league. Pittsburgh had been very methodical with Davis. But he was now on the verge of the majors and looked ready to help in the right role.

In 2006, the Pirates assigned Davis to the AAA Indianapolis Indians. He started slowly but ultimately hit .283/.335/.348 in 100 games with a stagnating 59/27 SO/BB ratio. He showed minimal power and had to overcome a fractured right middle finger but stole 45 bases, seemingly determined to swipe his way to the show. When McLouth sprained his ankle in August, Davis finally got his call-up after six years in the minors. But the Pirates buried him on their bench, never letting him start a game, mostly using him as a pinch-runner. He received just 17 plate appearances and was caught stealing 3 times in 4 tries. Teams were ready for his wheels. Pittsburgh was unsettled in centre entering the offseason. Both McLouth and Duffy had disappointed in their trials. And Duffy was reportedly clashing with manager Jim Tracy. Some guy named Jose Bautista even played 57 games in the midfield in 2006. Entering 2007, it looked like Davis might have a chance to make the team with a good spring.

He didn’t make the opening day roster but provided real spark in his return to Indianapolis. In 53 games, he hit .318/.384/.469 with 20 extra-base hits and a dramatically improved 25/21 SO/BB ratio with 27 steals in 36 tries. Davis seemed to have overhauled his approach, resulting in better discipline and power. He was no longer a grip-and-rip type in the box and didn’t appear overmatched. Pittsburgh liked the adjustments and recalled him up in June. He’s been in the majors ever since. Davis started slowly, but Pittsburgh stuck with him and, this time, gave him regular at bats. In 24 games, he hit a capable .271/.357/.354. He was now particularly effective against lefties, and with Nyjer Morgan rising from AAA, looked ready to assume part of a capable, and very fleet-flooted, platoon. But Pittsburgh judged McLouth a more complete package. So despite a 42-62 record that put them 14.5 games out of first, the Pirates made a buyer’s move at the trade deadline, sending Davis and a player to be named (Stephen McFarland) to San Francisco for veteran starter Matt Morris. Morris was 32, an innings eater, and, significantly, had nothing left. Zero. He’d make 16 starts for Pittsburgh, going 3-8 with a 7.04 ERA and a 62 ERA+. Terrible stuff.

Davis started fast with the Giants, hitting .364 in his first 18 games, and received more opportunities in a straight platoon with Dave Roberts. In total, he went .282/.363/.380 with a good 25/14 SO/BB ratio and 17 steals in 21 tries, covering all kinds of ground in centre next to 42-year old Barry Bonds who was in the midst of what would be the last season of his polarizing career. Davis looked to have a home at last. But that offseason, in search of a new post-Bonds identity, the rebuilding Giants signed scrappy Gold Glove winner Aaron Rowand to play centre, effectively eliminating Davis’ role.

In 2008, Davis still made the team out of spring training but rarely played and landed on waivers in April. Oakland had witnessed his raw from across the Bay. With plans to embrace more athleticism in their lineup, they snapped Davis up and played him often. He got into 101 games but hit just .260/.288/.372 with little pop and a miserable 34/7 SO/BB rate – though he did manage 25 steals in 31 tries. Trouble was, Davis couldn’t buy his way on base and hit only .223 when used as a leadoff hitter. Once again he seemed useful only as a defensive replacement and pinch runner. He was a fringe major leaguer saved by one excellent, exploitable skill.

Or so it seemed until 2009. Davis began the season as Oakland’s fourth outfielder. But saw few opportunities. On June 2, he had 41 at-bats and was hitting .146 with no extra base hits. But injuries began to deplete the A’s brittle Oakland lineup and Davis eventually got a chance to start. He didn’t look back. He hit .324 the rest of the way – fourth best in the league – for a final line of .305/.360/.423 with 27 doubles, 5 triples, and 3 home runs with 41 bases swiped in 125 games. He became the first Athletic since Rickey Henderson to steal 40 bases, nabbing three-quarters of them after the All-Star break. Indeed, his entire second half was excellent. He was still overly aggressive at the plate, with a 70/29 SO/BB rate, but he was finding gaps and utilizing his wheels. A .361 BABIP didn’t hurt, either. It seemed unlucky that Davis could sustain it – but, with his speed, figured to beat averages on balls in play. The overall approach was a more pressing concern. But he’d assembled an excellent 3.8 WAR season. Clearly, it wasn’t completely holding him back. Once old for his levels, Davis now seemed young at just 29. For the first time, he entered the offseason as a sure starter. The question was: could he repeat the performance, or would this prove to be Davis’ career peak?

Unfortunately, all signs now point to the latter. Davis’ luck ran out in 2010. He was healthy. Oakland committed to him. But he couldn’t sustain his breakout success. Davis hit a .284/.320/.377 slash. He even stole 50 bases, only getting caught 11 times – a great 82% success rate. Davis also set career highs in games played (143), runs (66), hits (149), doubles (28), home runs (5), and RBI (52). In many ways, his performance was identical. He simply was as fortunate. His BABIP (.322) normalized. He didn’t drive the ball as much (a -4.5% LD Rate) and his discipline completely eroded (78/26 SO/BB), resulting in just a 4.6% walk rate. He was pressing and it showed. Davis averaged just 3.40 pitches per plate appearance, the lowest of his career, and played to a poor 1.2 WAR. There were grumblings about mental errors both on the bases and in the outfield. Adding it all together, Oakland prepared to enter 2011 with Coco Crisp in centre and sent Davis to Toronto for relief prospects Danny Farquhar and Trystan Magnuson.

The 2011 Blue Jays started the year short on outfielders sans Vernon Wells. They were also short on speed. Davis was essentially gifted the role of Opening Day leadoff man and centre fielder. At worst, he seemed capable of hitting lefties. He was, as they say, an adventure. Exhibit A: He was the first Blue Jay to reach base in 2011. Got picked off dead-to-rights. Then scampered his way out of it. Behold:

Curious stuff like this became the norm with Davis and between bizarro baserunning and a bunch of bad breaks on fly balls, came questions about his baseball sense. Worse, he couldn’t get on base, going just .238/.273/.350 with 21 doubles, 6 triples and a single home run, his SO/BB rate (63/15) plummeting further. That’s a lot of strikeouts for 320 at bats. He flailed badly against righties (.221 AVG, .504 OPS) and played his way out of a job in June, hitting .163/.171/.000, with a 21/1 SO/BB. Despite his 34 stolen bases (and some electric moments on them) he gave John Farrell little choice but to platoon him. Corey Patterson, Mike McCoy, Dewayne Wise, Adam Loewen and even Travis Snider all saw time in centre field and, in July, the Blue Jays acquired Colby Rasmus from St. Louis, ending any real shot Davis had of winning the starting job back. The position was still messy. Davis’ season was a disaster. To cap it off, he tore his left hamstring in August (virtual death for a speed player) and didn’t return. He looked like a possible roster casualty in the offseason – particularly after the Jays added right-handed hitting Ben Francisco in a trade with Philadelphia – but Toronto retained Davis and he enters 2012 as a pinch runner and fifth outfielder.

OUTLOOK

Players like Rajai Davis inspired the old baseball line that you can’t steal first base. Once he’s there he can be a joy to watch – even when he causes grey hairs – and, when used correctly, can be a tremendous weapon. He cost the Jays virtually nothing (Farquhar and Magnuson are both back in the organization) while also providing defensive depth at all three outfield positions and a speed no other player on the roster possesses.

As a 38^th round draft pick, he’s had a great career. He seems like a great guy, liked by his teammates. And should contribute as a role player around the majors as long as his legs will let him. But it’s hard to see Davis lasting in Toronto beyond this season, even in a platoon capacity, with Eric Thames, Travis Snider and Anthony Gose jockeying for jobs.

Blue Jays fans should enjoy the ride while it lasts. Because, as one of Davis’ old platoon partners once proved, you never know what might happen…

STAT SHEET

After a mediocre season in 2011, the back end of the Blue Jays bullpen was in need of a makeover. Many analysts targeted Francisco Cordero as a potential closer option, citing his 327 career saves and affordable price tag. Instead, Toronto boldly acquired Sergio Santos. But in a neat twist they signed Cordero anyway, giving them an experienced mentor for Santos and a quality Plan B. Cordero wasn’t always seen as a power reliever. Now he sits 12^th all-time in saves. Here’s an in-depth look at how that happened - and how long we can reasonably expect him to remain effective.

PROFILE

Francisco Cordero was signed by the Detroit Tigers as a minor league free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 1994. He is a cousin of former Blue Jays first baseman Domingo Martinez. He began his career at 16 in the Dominican Summer League, going 4-3, with a 3.90 ERA in 12 games before moving to North America in 1995.

Back then, Cordero was actually a starter in the Tigers system. He kicked off his first year stateside with the low-A Fayetteville Generals and short-season Jamestown Jammers. He had a live fastball but struggled with consistency, going 4-10, 5.42 in 108 innings with a 73/49 SO/BB in 18 starts.

He started 1997 in extended spring training before returning briefly to Fayetteville and Jamestown. In June he injured his elbow and missed the rest of the year. He only threw 18 innings but his elevated 8.5 SO/9 stood out. Cordero had an explosive fastball and a nasty slider at this point. Power stuff. When he returned, the Tigers converted him into a closer to lessen the stress on his arm. The switch sped up his timeline to the majors. And changed the course of his career.

Healthy again in 1997, Cordero starred for the West Michigan Whitecaps of the Midwest League, going 6-1, 0.99 in 54.1 IP with a 67/15 SO/BB for a slick 11.1 SO/9 rate. He also collected 35 saves, earned the Tigers’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year honours and heard raves from scouts. Baseball America called him the best prospect in the league and he was now seen universally as a legitimate relief arm. In the offseason, he consolidated his gains playing winter ball in the Dominican for Leones del Escogido. The Tigers hoped to fast-track Cordero through their system and skipped him skip past high-A.

He started the 1998 season with the AA Jacksonville Suns, at one point setting up for Matt Anderson, the former first overall pick, whom the Tigers had a lot invested in. But Cordero pitched only 17 games before suffering another serious arm injury – this time a stress fracture to his right elbow – and underwent season-ending surgery in July. The Tigers would have to wait. When healthy, Cordero’s stuff was still dynamic. But injuries were now threatening to derail his career.

Cordero managed to start the following season on time. He was reassigned to Jacksonville but this time he excelled. In 47 games, he went 4-1, 1.38 in 52.1 IP with 58 SO (a 10.0 SO/9) and 22 BB. He paced the Southern League with 27 saves and was named its Pitcher of the Year. He also pitched in the Futures Games in July. The Tigers were set at closer with Todd Jones. But they were terrible otherwise and couldn’t resist getting a look at Cordero in the majors. They called him up in August and he stormed out of the gate, throwing up zeroes across his first 11 appearances. He finished 2-2, 3.32 but he was also walking almost a batter an inning (19/18 SO/BB in 19IP) and was sometimes criticized for overthrowing. Nothing unusual for a rookie. Elsewhere, Anderson always seemed to be hurt or flailing. So Cordero represented hope. He was chosen to transport home plate from storied Tiger Stadium to the new Comerica Park (with Jeff Weaver and, yes, Anderson) and had an inside track at a bullpen job entering 2000. But Detroit was looking for a bankable star to bring fans to Comerica and sent Cordero to Texas as part of a six-player package for Juan Gonzalez. Twelve years later, Cordero’s generated a higher WAR than any player in the deal. Juan Gone included.

He made the Rangers out of spring training and won his first appearance, ultimately spending most of 2000 learning on the job in the Texas bullpen. In 56 games, he went 1-4, 5.35 in 77.1 innings. He was very hittable (.285/.383/.475), especially against lefties (.310/.461/.496), and couldn’t harness his control (49/48 SO/BB). He also uncorked 7 wild pitches. Refinements were definitely needed. But with a 95+ mph fastball and a filthy slider to work with more chances would come.

Just not soon. In early 2001, Cordero suffered a stress fracture in his lower back and could only make 15 appearances between Texas and the Triple-A Oklahoma RedHawks. Lingering pain and tightness limited his workload but the minor league numbers he put up during his rehab were better than ever: 0-1, 0.59 with a 20/3 SO/BB rate in 15.1 IP. Cordero again seemed poised to assume a late-inning role in the Texas ‘pen – if he could keep himself on the field.

In 2002, Cordero finally broke through. He split time between Oklahoma and Texas, eventually giving the Rangers 39 games, 2-0, 1.79 in 45.1 IP with an impeccable 41/13 SO/BB line. He only gave up 2 runs after June 1 – an incredible span stretching 33 games and 38.1 innings. With Jeff Zimmerman sidelined by a blown-out elbow the Rangers struggled to close games – even trying Hideki Irabu there at one point. No one could hold Cordero off for long and he ultimately finished in the closer’s role, netting 10 saves. He landed on the shelf (again) in June with a right shoulder strain but rebounded splendidly. His injury history suggests a pitcher perpetually on the verge of breaking down. Instead, Cordero’s never missed time in the ten years since. Relievers are unpredictable like that.

Cordero looked ready to continue closing going into 2003. But Texas elected to sign veteran stopper Ugueth Urbina. Undeterred, Cordero just kept on performing and manager Buck Showalter ultimately turned to him more than any other Ranger. He lead the team with 73 games and went 5-8, 2.94 in a whopping 82.2 innings with a potent 90/38 SO/BB rate. Urbina was gone by midseason, Cordero finished with 15 saves and established himself as a full-time stopper. He had cemented himself at last.

He was even better in 2004: 3-4, 2.13, 71.2 IP with a 79/32 SO/BB line in 67 games and the Rangers improved by 16 wins, buoyed by Cordero’s franchise record 49 saves and 9.92 SO/9. He only gave up one home run and had streaks of 19 and 21 straight saves. Cordero made his first All-Star team and even received MVP votes. More of the same followed in 2005. Cordero secured 37 saves while also flashing a career-high 10.3 SO/9 and an excellent 14.2% swinging strike rate. He was now undeniably among baseball’s elite firemen.

But in 2006 Cordero got off to a dreadful start, blowing 5 saves in April and finishing the month with an 11.45 ERA. Showalter flinched and installed new free agent signing Akinori Otsuka in the ninth inning. Cordero was undeniably terrible. But the 55 plate appearance-sample size was small. Still, it seemed the damage was done. In mid-summer, with Texas chasing the Athletics and Angels, the Rangers sent Cordero to the Milwaukee Brewers for Carlos Lee (and a throw-in bat named Nelson Cruz). The Brewers badly needed a closer and Cordero embraced the change of scenery. He kicked off his Brewers career by converting 16 straight saves and finished 3-1, 1.69 with a 30/16 SO/BB rate. His walks spiked but still looked better than Derrick Turnbow’s. The Brewers (and Rangers) finished well out of the playoff race. But Cordero was now comfortable and set to play a leading role on an improving Brewers team.

And so it went. He pitched 66 games in 2007, going 0-4, 2.98 in 63.1 IP with a franchise-record 44 saves and a fantastic 86/18 SO/BB ratio. He generated a career-best 12.2 SO/9, a sterling 4.78 SO/BB and held hitters to a .218 BAA. He nailed down his first 22 saves in a row including 10 in April. Later, he earned saves on five consecutive days. He made the All-Star team and was a major reason the Brewers finished second in the NL Central. His home/road ERA splits were severe (1.09/6.55) but Cordero set himself up beautifully for his first crack at free agency. And cashed in with a four-year, $46 million deal with the fifth place Cincinnati Reds – the biggest contract ever signed by a relief pitcher at the time.

Over the next four years, Cordero gave the Reds exactly what they paid him for. He pitched 283 games, going 18-18, 2.96 in 279.1 innings with a cumulative 237/126 SO/BB and a whopping 150 saves. He made his third All-Star team in 2009 and helped the Reds win the NL Central in 2010. Alas, the Reds never got a lead and Cordero didn’t get to pitch in the playoffs. The Reds also rewarded his community work, nominating him for the Roberto Clemente Award. Dusty Baker rode him hard over the years, sometimes pitching him four and five days in a row. But Cordero didn’t miss any time. And only required one late-September microfracture procedure to remove a bone spur from his right foot. For the last decade, he’s been one of the most reliable and durable relievers in the game.

His 2011 season is very interesting. Cordero pitched 68 games, saving 37, and went 5-3, 2.45 in 69.2 IP – but with an underwhelming 49/22 SO/BB rate. His 5.43 SO/9 was the lowest of his career. But so was his 6.3 H/9. He also dramatically reduced the walks he allowed (2.84 BB/9, his best rate in 10 years) and produced a strong 1.02 WHIP. He had four bad outings before the All-Star break but managed an excellent 1.80 ERA in the second half. He was absolute murder on righties (.159/.245/.220) and showed he could still be effective against lefties (.243/.302/.435). He recorded an unsustainable .214 BABIP but also delivered the best ground ball (50.0%) and line drive rates (16.2%) of his career. He was tough to get on against. 20 of his 37 saves were 1-2-3 innings. Yet he lost some velocity on his fastball (down to 93 mph) and virtually threw it only 41.2% of the time – down from 66.7% in 2010. Instead, Cordero threw three times as many changeups (18.8% from 6.7%) and introduced a new show-me curveball (9.8%).

Many are attributing this change to declining stuff. Fair enough. He’s 37 in a month. But it’s possible Cordero’s fundamentally changing the way he attacks hitters. In interviews, Cordero insists he now strives to be more economical on the mound by inducing weak contact. The ground ball and line drive rates seem to back this up. The question moving forward is: Has a 37-year old closer reinvented himself as a crafty specialist or did he get lucky at the same time his stuff started to fade? We’ll soon find out.

OUTLOOK

In the new-look Jays bullpen, Cordero’s job is simple. He’ll be asked to enter close games, attack right-handed hitters and be prepared to slide into the ninth when called on. He should also guide Sergio Santos. Cordero still looks capable of doing all these things and there is no situation Santos will encounter this year that Cordero hasn’t seen.

He is now entering the Roberto Hernandez stage of his career. He may have fewer chances to influences games but will be but will be counted on for guidance and stability – especially with fastball-slider guys like Santos and Joel Carreno. He’s been worth 21.4 WAR in his career. Has saved 30 games 7 times and sits second among pitchers in saves and fifth in games pitched.Who could have guessed Cordero and Darren Oliver, teammates on the 2000 Texas Rangers, would still be going strong all these years later?

Expect Cordero to pound RHH, be more susceptible to home runs and rack up a whack of holds and add a few saves. His margin for error is shrinking and he could still break down at any time. But I’m betting there’s another season or two left.

STAT SHEET

Francisco Cordero, RP
05/11/75            Bats: R             Throws: R       HT: 6-3          WT: 245
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
Signed: By Detroit as an amateur free agent June 18, 1994.
Acquired: Signed by Toronto in February 2012.
Contract Status: Free Agent in 2013.
Salary: $4,500,000
Service Time: 12.046

Juan Rivera made his debut for the Los Angeles Dodgers last night. Yes, the Blue Jays turned baseball’s bankrupt team into buyers this week, flipping Rivera and cash (likely the remaining $2.095 on his contract) to Chavez Ravine for a player to be named later or cash. I’m reading the Jays recoup $175,000. Not much, but better than the nothing they would’ve gotten by releasing Rivera outright.

The Dodgers are 42-51, 11.5 games out of first in the NL West and 13 out of the wildcard. Rivera can play a passable LF, a surprisingly nimble 1B and he can hit left-handers (.345/.412/.569). LA can use somebody like thaeven if the effect is minimal. It’s hard to imagine him getting 200 at bats unless this is an early audition for a platoon role in 2012. In that scenario, he could caddy for outfield prospects Jerry Sands and Trayvon Robinson while rescuing the flailing James Loney from lefties (.184/.232/.197).

But this post isn’t about the Dodgers. It’s about how Toronto fans perceived Rivera in his short time here. They seemed to preserve a special hostility for the former Montreal Expo. One I thought strange from the start. He wasn’t acquired to be an every day player nor expected to replace Vernon Wells. He was just… a guy. A professional hitter who, Jays fans hoped, would help erase memories of Brad Wilkerson, Kevin Mench and David Dellucci while contributing at LF and DH until the kids were ready. To hear Jays fans, you’d think they were expecting Mariano Rivera. Maybe it’s the Bautista effect. People now assume league-average performance can morph into something meteoric with good coaching. Of course, it can’t. So the fans are loudly, proudly glad to see him go. Fair enough. But it’s important to remember that Juan Rivera’s time with the Blue Jays was actually a tremendous gift.

Rivera and Mike Napoli (quickly flipped to Texas for Frank Francisco) were the Jays’ return for Vernon Wells and $5 million. To properly evaluate the deal, you have to examine the economics of the deal, the performance of those involved and the impact that acquisitions had on each team’s prospect development. For brevity, let’s eschew the last one here. (All contracts details courtesy the excellent Cot’s Baseball Contracts)

Rivera:            1 year, $5.25 million.
Francisco:      1 year, $4 million. Currently qualifies as a Type B free agent.
+$175,000 from Los Angeles Dodgers

Wells:              4 years, $86 million. (11:$23M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$21M)
+$5 million cash

The Jays manage to shed $81 million of Wells’ $86 million deal. Then, after the Dodgers transaction, they end up spending 9,075,000 on Francisco, whatever compensation he ultimately yields (if any) and half a season of Juan Rivera. Even if you deem the players and the compensation a washout, the Jays essentially sell Wells to the Angels for $75 million. Great deal. Why? Performance.

According to Fangraphs, Rivera was worth 0.0 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) as a Jay. The definition of a replacement-level player. Wells is only a 0.1 WAR player. In free agency, each win above replacement costs about $5M/annually in free agency. So both players are disappointments. But Wells has been a complete disaster for someone making $23 million this year with three more seasons left at 63 million. He’s been a bit unlucky, suffering a groin strain that kept him out of action three weeks, and hitting just .229 on balls in play. But Wells has battled nagging injuries at various stages of his career. And hasn’t produced a BABIP of more than .280 in three years. Besides, even a league-average BABIP would leave him with disappointing numbers for a LF on a contending team. He carries a line drive rate (LD) of only 10.2%, down from 15.9 in 2010 and 14.8% in 2009. If Wells had the at-bats to qualify for the batting title, he’d carry the worst LD rate of all eligible players. Meantime, his 46.3% fly ball rate is good for tenth in baseball. Jays fans, your memories don’t deceive you. Vernon hits a lot of pop-ups.

Had the Jays kept Napoli (a 2.0 WAR player so far) rather than flipping him for Francisco they would’ve benefitted from the deal even more. Of course, less than a month after the Wells deal, Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos re-invested $65 million of his found money into five years of Jose Bautista. So far, that’s working out. Bautista is the most valuable player in baseball to come along in 38 years.

So Rivera’s been no worse than Wells. Cost analysis tells us Rivera’s actually been better – by himself – than Wells during the opening months of 2011. Furthermore, the Jays still have Francisco and whatever compensatory draft pick they might receive when his time in Toronto ends. And one less albatross clogging an outfield slot and standing in the way of ready-now mashers Travis Snider and Eric Thames.

Juan, it was nice to see you take the first pitch you saw as a Dodger deep last night.
Toronto should wish you well. The Blue Jays certainly did well by you.