Many thought health might keep Sam Dyson from wearing a major league uniform; few saw him wearing a Jays’ uni so soon. (Brad White/Getty Images)

So here we are. With the Blue Jays’ pitching staff decimated by injury and underperformance and the hitters stubbornly slugging the team to fringe contention, we’re in full-on all-arms-on-deck mode. Enter Sam Dyson. Who? He’s a pitcher the Jays drafted out of college while injured. Who didn’t pitch last year. Who made his professional debut in April. It’s possible that we are nowhere and it is now. Here’s more on Dyson. Let’s hope he doesn’t suck.

PROFILE

In 2006, the Washington Nationals drafted Sam Dyson in the 19^th round of the MLB Amateur Draft out of Jesuit High School in Tampa, Florida. Dyson chose to honour his commitment to the University of South Carolina instead of signing. In 2009, his sophomore season, he was drafted again – this time by the Oakland Athletics in the 10^th round. He was considered a tough sign due to both injury history and signability and, indeed, Dyson turned down the A’s offers and returned to Columbia for his senior season. It didn’t take long for his gamble to look questionable as he promptly blew out his elbow in mid-season. Tantalized by his natural talent, the Toronto Blue Jays drafted him in the 4^th round, 126^th overall, fully aware he’d require Tommy John surgery that would cost him the entire 2011 season.

There’s so little pro data to analysis on Dyson that, for now, the best way to get a read on him is to consult reports on him from school.

Back in 2006, he likely would’ve been drafted in the top 5 rounds if not for his strong college commitment. By 2007, he’d been bit by the injury bug – at maximum force. First, Dyson underwent labrum surgery on his throwing shoulder. He also needed surgery on his left shoulder. And, finally, an elbow procedure called ulnar transposition surgery to stop a nerve from rubbing against the bone. His chart now read like a reconstructed doll. Labrum surgery is typically cited as the worst of them. It’s no sure thing. You’ll remember it costing Casey Janssen his entire 2008 season and he also spent much of 2009 struggling to find his former self. Some never do. The surgeries and rehab would cost Dyson, then 19, all of 2007.

By 2008, he was pitching again and showing good arm strength. But his raw stuff wasn’t producing results. He could touch 96-97 MPH on the gun. But his heat lacked movement. And genuine durability concerns were now a part of his scouting report.

Entering 2009, he was seen as one of the hardest throwers in the draft. But Dyson was incredible raw – a classic thrower rather than a thrower and, fair enough, given the time lost to injury. His performance with the Gamecocks didn’t help his case. On one hand, he helped alleviate concerns about his durability by firing 102 innings as a sophomore. But he gave up 18 home runs and looked, frankly, very hittable. Oakland bought a lottery ticket on him but couldn’t get him to sign. Perhaps it was just as well. By August, Dyson had developed bone chips in his right elbow and had to be shut down for the season to remove them.

He began the 2010 season healthy and, perhaps not coincidentally, recorded his best season ever: 14 games, 5-5, 3.92 in 82.2 innings with an 86/17 SO/BB line and just 3 home runs allowed. But he simply couldn’t keep the doctors away, blowing out his elbow mid-season. The Jays selected him anyway, paid for his operation and rushed him into the system before injury could strike again.

He made his professional debut with the high-A Dunedin Blue Jays this year, making 6 starts and going 2-0, 4.08 in 28.2 IP with a 16/5 SO/BB rate. Not bad, particularly for a ‘baseball rookie’ recovering from Tommy John, but not particularly exemplary either. Toronto quickly promoted him to the AA New Hampshire Fisher Cats and wasted little time converting him to relief – a move designed to reduce the toll on his fragile arm and push him quickly through the minors. There he pitched in 15 games, going 0-0, 0.75 in 24 IP, allowing 19 hits and working to an 8/8 SO/BB line. He’d recently become the team’s closer and earned 3 saves.

Dyson still possesses a starter’s four-pitch repertoire: a developing slider, fringe curveball and change. But these days it’s his sinker that’s carried him to the majors so quickly. He no longer throws the blazing heat of his college peak (now sitting in the low 90s rather than 95-96) but his ball possesses quality dive. Granted, the sample size is small. But right now he’s profiling as an extreme groundball pitcher, netting 3.5 groundouts/fly out in his brief minor league stint. And there remains hope that his velocity could increase a tick if he stays in a relief role and develops more arm strength as his TJ recovery continues. He’s said to have a quiet personality and has, so far, taken well to the conversion into relief.

He arrives in Toronto on a roll, allowing no runs in his last 10 AA outings covering 17 innings. He is 24 years old.

OUTLOOK

It certainly appears Sam Dyson has a major league arm. The fear is that it could fall off at any moment. His AA manager, Sal Fasano, says that although Dyson is in his mid-20s, he’s very young to professional baseball. That, plus his lacklustre minor league K-rate, suggests his early outings could be rocky. If he can continue to keep the ball on the ground, he’ll be helped by the Jays’ strong infield defense. But let’s hold off thinking this guy is an option in tight situations. He’s their 18th (!) reliever of the year, after all. Teams simply can’t plan for emergencies like the kind facing Toronto right now.

I think shifting Dyson to the bullpen and fasttracking him through the system was an inspired, if obvious, move. But it’s hard to see a big league promotion this dramatic benefiting his development or plugging the team’s ongoing relief sieve. Then again, maybe this was always the plan for Dyson. Everything in his medical record suggests he’ll always be one pitch away from a career-ending injury. The most likely scenario has him getting shelled and returning to AA so that Chad Beck, Joel Carreno or, for the love of God, Clint Everts get an extended look.

It used to be that anyone selected beyond the draft’s third round and made it to the majors was considered a steal. Dyson was once seen as a first-round talent. So you have to credit the Blue Jays for making a shrewd value pick and sticking to their vision for him. On the merits of getting to Toronto alone he’s proven worth their gamble.

STAT SHEET

Sam Dyson, RP
05/07/88            Bats: R             Throws: R       HT: 6-2          WT: 205
Tampa, Florida                         College: South Carolina
Drafted by Toronto in the 4th round, 126th overall, of the 2010 MLB Amateur Draft.
(Originally drafted by Washington in the 19th round, 571th overall, of the 2006 MLB Amateur Draft bud did not sign; again drafted by Oakland in the 10^th round, 303^rd overall, in 2009)
Contract Status: Not eligible for arbitration before 2017.
Salary: $414,000
Service Time: 0.0

Rajai Davis returns for his second year with the Blue Jays in a new role as a reserve outfielder and pinch runner. Davis can be one of the most exciting players to watch in any game. But hitting limitations continue to hold him back. Interestingly, Davis hit well in his minor league career. Let’s look at his case to see what’s happened since – and whether there may still be more to his game than speed.

PROFILE

The Pittsburgh Pirates drafted Rajai Davis in the 38^th round, 1134^th overall, of the 2001 amateur draft out of the University of Connecticut. At the time, he was an extremely athletic switch-hitting (!) second baseman (!!) but Pittsburgh profiled him as a centre fielder due to his great range and plus speed. It was a tough draft for the Pirates. They chose injury bust John Van Benschoten 8^th overall and also selected Jeremy Guthrie and Stephen Drew but couldn’t convince either to sign. Davis, however, signed quickly and got started with the short-season Williamsport Crosscutters before a reassignment to the rookie-level Gulf Coast League Pirates. He played in 32 games, hitting .240/.345/.250 with just one double and a problematic 30/15 SO/BB ratio. The walks looked good, but the whiffs were untenable and Davis showed zero power. He stole 11 bases in 15 tries. But speed was the only interesting part of his game.

Davis returned to the GCL in 2002 and ripped: .384/.436/.554 with 16 doubles, 5 triples, 4 home runs, an excellent 25/20 SO/BB line and 24 steals in 58 games. He was named the GCL’s Player of the Year and Pittsburgh granted him a late promotion to the South Atlantic League champion Hickory Crawdads. On the surface, the numbers looked great. He’d reached base in 61 of his 65 total games. But, at 21, Davis was old for these levels, and doing most of his damage against teenage competition. Still, he’d put himself on the organizational map and now had a shot at becoming more than low-level roster filler.

In 2003, Davis spent the whole season with Hickory and excelled. In 125 games, he hit .303/.383/.416 with 21 doubles, 7 triples and 6 HRs, a very strong 65/55 SO/BB and 40 steals in 53 tries. The extra-base hits were easily a career high and he led the Crawdads in several offensive categories. He also had an impressive 15 outfield assists – an indication that his great range surprised many baserunners – but also made 7 errors. He still wasn’t turning many heads. But it was a second straight campaign of good results. In the offseason, Davis decided to stop switch-hitting and dedicate himself to hitting right-handed going forward.

Unless you spent 2004 watching a lot of Lynchburg Hillcats games, you’d have been hard-pressed to notice. Pittsburgh promoted Davis to its high-A affiliate and he rewarded them with a virtual replica of his previous season: 127 games, .314/.388/.424 with 27 doubles, 7 triples, 5 HRs, and a terrific 60/59 SO/BB rate. He won the Carolina League batting title, made it All-Star team, and led the circuit in runs, hits and steals. It was quite incredible considering he’d done the whole thing right-handed. Better yet, his steals spiked as Davis nabbed 57 bases against just 15 times caught. He showed no obvious platoon split (hitting .325 vs. LHP, .312 vs. RHP) and finally attracted real interest as a burner prospect and potential major league leadoff man. He made 8 errors but clearly had all the tools to handle centre field. Pittsburgh added him to its 40-man roster in the offseason but he was still behind Nate McLouth and Chris Duffy on the Pirates’ prospect chart and was only now entering AA at 24.

Davis arrived in AA in 2005, playing 123 games with the Altoona Curve. His slash line dipped slightly (.281/.351/.369) but he produced similar counting stats (22 2B, 4 3B, 4 HR) and was again named a league All-Star. Unfortunately, his SO/BB rate declined to 76/43 against tougher competition. Playable, certainly, but worth monitoring. He also saw his contact, walk and slugging rates slip, costing him almost 100 points of OPS. But he continued to improve his base stealing, taking 45 of 54 attempts – an excellent 83% theft rate – and leading the league in steals. He might have been even more prolific but Davis was hit by a pitch and fractured his right hand in August, ending his season early and potentially costing him a late call-up. Hes again contributed 10 outfield assists but, curiously, also made 10 errors. Most were the result of bad reads on fly balls that he couldn’t rescue despite his speed. Davis appeared to be a useful pest but not a true leadoff threat. He could handle centre and provide a spark. But it looked like advanced pitchers would knock the bat out of his hands if his approach didn’t improve. He got healthy in time to play winter ball with Guasave in the Mexican winter league. Pittsburgh had been very methodical with Davis. But he was now on the verge of the majors and looked ready to help in the right role.

In 2006, the Pirates assigned Davis to the AAA Indianapolis Indians. He started slowly but ultimately hit .283/.335/.348 in 100 games with a stagnating 59/27 SO/BB ratio. He showed minimal power and had to overcome a fractured right middle finger but stole 45 bases, seemingly determined to swipe his way to the show. When McLouth sprained his ankle in August, Davis finally got his call-up after six years in the minors. But the Pirates buried him on their bench, never letting him start a game, mostly using him as a pinch-runner. He received just 17 plate appearances and was caught stealing 3 times in 4 tries. Teams were ready for his wheels. Pittsburgh was unsettled in centre entering the offseason. Both McLouth and Duffy had disappointed in their trials. And Duffy was reportedly clashing with manager Jim Tracy. Some guy named Jose Bautista even played 57 games in the midfield in 2006. Entering 2007, it looked like Davis might have a chance to make the team with a good spring.

He didn’t make the opening day roster but provided real spark in his return to Indianapolis. In 53 games, he hit .318/.384/.469 with 20 extra-base hits and a dramatically improved 25/21 SO/BB ratio with 27 steals in 36 tries. Davis seemed to have overhauled his approach, resulting in better discipline and power. He was no longer a grip-and-rip type in the box and didn’t appear overmatched. Pittsburgh liked the adjustments and recalled him up in June. He’s been in the majors ever since. Davis started slowly, but Pittsburgh stuck with him and, this time, gave him regular at bats. In 24 games, he hit a capable .271/.357/.354. He was now particularly effective against lefties, and with Nyjer Morgan rising from AAA, looked ready to assume part of a capable, and very fleet-flooted, platoon. But Pittsburgh judged McLouth a more complete package. So despite a 42-62 record that put them 14.5 games out of first, the Pirates made a buyer’s move at the trade deadline, sending Davis and a player to be named (Stephen McFarland) to San Francisco for veteran starter Matt Morris. Morris was 32, an innings eater, and, significantly, had nothing left. Zero. He’d make 16 starts for Pittsburgh, going 3-8 with a 7.04 ERA and a 62 ERA+. Terrible stuff.

Davis started fast with the Giants, hitting .364 in his first 18 games, and received more opportunities in a straight platoon with Dave Roberts. In total, he went .282/.363/.380 with a good 25/14 SO/BB ratio and 17 steals in 21 tries, covering all kinds of ground in centre next to 42-year old Barry Bonds who was in the midst of what would be the last season of his polarizing career. Davis looked to have a home at last. But that offseason, in search of a new post-Bonds identity, the rebuilding Giants signed scrappy Gold Glove winner Aaron Rowand to play centre, effectively eliminating Davis’ role.

In 2008, Davis still made the team out of spring training but rarely played and landed on waivers in April. Oakland had witnessed his raw from across the Bay. With plans to embrace more athleticism in their lineup, they snapped Davis up and played him often. He got into 101 games but hit just .260/.288/.372 with little pop and a miserable 34/7 SO/BB rate – though he did manage 25 steals in 31 tries. Trouble was, Davis couldn’t buy his way on base and hit only .223 when used as a leadoff hitter. Once again he seemed useful only as a defensive replacement and pinch runner. He was a fringe major leaguer saved by one excellent, exploitable skill.

Or so it seemed until 2009. Davis began the season as Oakland’s fourth outfielder. But saw few opportunities. On June 2, he had 41 at-bats and was hitting .146 with no extra base hits. But injuries began to deplete the A’s brittle Oakland lineup and Davis eventually got a chance to start. He didn’t look back. He hit .324 the rest of the way – fourth best in the league – for a final line of .305/.360/.423 with 27 doubles, 5 triples, and 3 home runs with 41 bases swiped in 125 games. He became the first Athletic since Rickey Henderson to steal 40 bases, nabbing three-quarters of them after the All-Star break. Indeed, his entire second half was excellent. He was still overly aggressive at the plate, with a 70/29 SO/BB rate, but he was finding gaps and utilizing his wheels. A .361 BABIP didn’t hurt, either. It seemed unlucky that Davis could sustain it – but, with his speed, figured to beat averages on balls in play. The overall approach was a more pressing concern. But he’d assembled an excellent 3.8 WAR season. Clearly, it wasn’t completely holding him back. Once old for his levels, Davis now seemed young at just 29. For the first time, he entered the offseason as a sure starter. The question was: could he repeat the performance, or would this prove to be Davis’ career peak?

Unfortunately, all signs now point to the latter. Davis’ luck ran out in 2010. He was healthy. Oakland committed to him. But he couldn’t sustain his breakout success. Davis hit a .284/.320/.377 slash. He even stole 50 bases, only getting caught 11 times – a great 82% success rate. Davis also set career highs in games played (143), runs (66), hits (149), doubles (28), home runs (5), and RBI (52). In many ways, his performance was identical. He simply was as fortunate. His BABIP (.322) normalized. He didn’t drive the ball as much (a -4.5% LD Rate) and his discipline completely eroded (78/26 SO/BB), resulting in just a 4.6% walk rate. He was pressing and it showed. Davis averaged just 3.40 pitches per plate appearance, the lowest of his career, and played to a poor 1.2 WAR. There were grumblings about mental errors both on the bases and in the outfield. Adding it all together, Oakland prepared to enter 2011 with Coco Crisp in centre and sent Davis to Toronto for relief prospects Danny Farquhar and Trystan Magnuson.

The 2011 Blue Jays started the year short on outfielders sans Vernon Wells. They were also short on speed. Davis was essentially gifted the role of Opening Day leadoff man and centre fielder. At worst, he seemed capable of hitting lefties. He was, as they say, an adventure. Exhibit A: He was the first Blue Jay to reach base in 2011. Got picked off dead-to-rights. Then scampered his way out of it. Behold:

Curious stuff like this became the norm with Davis and between bizarro baserunning and a bunch of bad breaks on fly balls, came questions about his baseball sense. Worse, he couldn’t get on base, going just .238/.273/.350 with 21 doubles, 6 triples and a single home run, his SO/BB rate (63/15) plummeting further. That’s a lot of strikeouts for 320 at bats. He flailed badly against righties (.221 AVG, .504 OPS) and played his way out of a job in June, hitting .163/.171/.000, with a 21/1 SO/BB. Despite his 34 stolen bases (and some electric moments on them) he gave John Farrell little choice but to platoon him. Corey Patterson, Mike McCoy, Dewayne Wise, Adam Loewen and even Travis Snider all saw time in centre field and, in July, the Blue Jays acquired Colby Rasmus from St. Louis, ending any real shot Davis had of winning the starting job back. The position was still messy. Davis’ season was a disaster. To cap it off, he tore his left hamstring in August (virtual death for a speed player) and didn’t return. He looked like a possible roster casualty in the offseason – particularly after the Jays added right-handed hitting Ben Francisco in a trade with Philadelphia – but Toronto retained Davis and he enters 2012 as a pinch runner and fifth outfielder.

OUTLOOK

Players like Rajai Davis inspired the old baseball line that you can’t steal first base. Once he’s there he can be a joy to watch – even when he causes grey hairs – and, when used correctly, can be a tremendous weapon. He cost the Jays virtually nothing (Farquhar and Magnuson are both back in the organization) while also providing defensive depth at all three outfield positions and a speed no other player on the roster possesses.

As a 38^th round draft pick, he’s had a great career. He seems like a great guy, liked by his teammates. And should contribute as a role player around the majors as long as his legs will let him. But it’s hard to see Davis lasting in Toronto beyond this season, even in a platoon capacity, with Eric Thames, Travis Snider and Anthony Gose jockeying for jobs.

Blue Jays fans should enjoy the ride while it lasts. Because, as one of Davis’ old platoon partners once proved, you never know what might happen…

STAT SHEET

After a mediocre season in 2011, the back end of the Blue Jays bullpen was in need of a makeover. Many analysts targeted Francisco Cordero as a potential closer option, citing his 327 career saves and affordable price tag. Instead, Toronto boldly acquired Sergio Santos. But in a neat twist they signed Cordero anyway, giving them an experienced mentor for Santos and a quality Plan B. Cordero wasn’t always seen as a power reliever. Now he sits 12^th all-time in saves. Here’s an in-depth look at how that happened - and how long we can reasonably expect him to remain effective.

PROFILE

Francisco Cordero was signed by the Detroit Tigers as a minor league free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 1994. He is a cousin of former Blue Jays first baseman Domingo Martinez. He began his career at 16 in the Dominican Summer League, going 4-3, with a 3.90 ERA in 12 games before moving to North America in 1995.

Back then, Cordero was actually a starter in the Tigers system. He kicked off his first year stateside with the low-A Fayetteville Generals and short-season Jamestown Jammers. He had a live fastball but struggled with consistency, going 4-10, 5.42 in 108 innings with a 73/49 SO/BB in 18 starts.

He started 1997 in extended spring training before returning briefly to Fayetteville and Jamestown. In June he injured his elbow and missed the rest of the year. He only threw 18 innings but his elevated 8.5 SO/9 stood out. Cordero had an explosive fastball and a nasty slider at this point. Power stuff. When he returned, the Tigers converted him into a closer to lessen the stress on his arm. The switch sped up his timeline to the majors. And changed the course of his career.

Healthy again in 1997, Cordero starred for the West Michigan Whitecaps of the Midwest League, going 6-1, 0.99 in 54.1 IP with a 67/15 SO/BB for a slick 11.1 SO/9 rate. He also collected 35 saves, earned the Tigers’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year honours and heard raves from scouts. Baseball America called him the best prospect in the league and he was now seen universally as a legitimate relief arm. In the offseason, he consolidated his gains playing winter ball in the Dominican for Leones del Escogido. The Tigers hoped to fast-track Cordero through their system and skipped him skip past high-A.

He started the 1998 season with the AA Jacksonville Suns, at one point setting up for Matt Anderson, the former first overall pick, whom the Tigers had a lot invested in. But Cordero pitched only 17 games before suffering another serious arm injury – this time a stress fracture to his right elbow – and underwent season-ending surgery in July. The Tigers would have to wait. When healthy, Cordero’s stuff was still dynamic. But injuries were now threatening to derail his career.

Cordero managed to start the following season on time. He was reassigned to Jacksonville but this time he excelled. In 47 games, he went 4-1, 1.38 in 52.1 IP with 58 SO (a 10.0 SO/9) and 22 BB. He paced the Southern League with 27 saves and was named its Pitcher of the Year. He also pitched in the Futures Games in July. The Tigers were set at closer with Todd Jones. But they were terrible otherwise and couldn’t resist getting a look at Cordero in the majors. They called him up in August and he stormed out of the gate, throwing up zeroes across his first 11 appearances. He finished 2-2, 3.32 but he was also walking almost a batter an inning (19/18 SO/BB in 19IP) and was sometimes criticized for overthrowing. Nothing unusual for a rookie. Elsewhere, Anderson always seemed to be hurt or flailing. So Cordero represented hope. He was chosen to transport home plate from storied Tiger Stadium to the new Comerica Park (with Jeff Weaver and, yes, Anderson) and had an inside track at a bullpen job entering 2000. But Detroit was looking for a bankable star to bring fans to Comerica and sent Cordero to Texas as part of a six-player package for Juan Gonzalez. Twelve years later, Cordero’s generated a higher WAR than any player in the deal. Juan Gone included.

He made the Rangers out of spring training and won his first appearance, ultimately spending most of 2000 learning on the job in the Texas bullpen. In 56 games, he went 1-4, 5.35 in 77.1 innings. He was very hittable (.285/.383/.475), especially against lefties (.310/.461/.496), and couldn’t harness his control (49/48 SO/BB). He also uncorked 7 wild pitches. Refinements were definitely needed. But with a 95+ mph fastball and a filthy slider to work with more chances would come.

Just not soon. In early 2001, Cordero suffered a stress fracture in his lower back and could only make 15 appearances between Texas and the Triple-A Oklahoma RedHawks. Lingering pain and tightness limited his workload but the minor league numbers he put up during his rehab were better than ever: 0-1, 0.59 with a 20/3 SO/BB rate in 15.1 IP. Cordero again seemed poised to assume a late-inning role in the Texas ‘pen – if he could keep himself on the field.

In 2002, Cordero finally broke through. He split time between Oklahoma and Texas, eventually giving the Rangers 39 games, 2-0, 1.79 in 45.1 IP with an impeccable 41/13 SO/BB line. He only gave up 2 runs after June 1 – an incredible span stretching 33 games and 38.1 innings. With Jeff Zimmerman sidelined by a blown-out elbow the Rangers struggled to close games – even trying Hideki Irabu there at one point. No one could hold Cordero off for long and he ultimately finished in the closer’s role, netting 10 saves. He landed on the shelf (again) in June with a right shoulder strain but rebounded splendidly. His injury history suggests a pitcher perpetually on the verge of breaking down. Instead, Cordero’s never missed time in the ten years since. Relievers are unpredictable like that.

Cordero looked ready to continue closing going into 2003. But Texas elected to sign veteran stopper Ugueth Urbina. Undeterred, Cordero just kept on performing and manager Buck Showalter ultimately turned to him more than any other Ranger. He lead the team with 73 games and went 5-8, 2.94 in a whopping 82.2 innings with a potent 90/38 SO/BB rate. Urbina was gone by midseason, Cordero finished with 15 saves and established himself as a full-time stopper. He had cemented himself at last.

He was even better in 2004: 3-4, 2.13, 71.2 IP with a 79/32 SO/BB line in 67 games and the Rangers improved by 16 wins, buoyed by Cordero’s franchise record 49 saves and 9.92 SO/9. He only gave up one home run and had streaks of 19 and 21 straight saves. Cordero made his first All-Star team and even received MVP votes. More of the same followed in 2005. Cordero secured 37 saves while also flashing a career-high 10.3 SO/9 and an excellent 14.2% swinging strike rate. He was now undeniably among baseball’s elite firemen.

But in 2006 Cordero got off to a dreadful start, blowing 5 saves in April and finishing the month with an 11.45 ERA. Showalter flinched and installed new free agent signing Akinori Otsuka in the ninth inning. Cordero was undeniably terrible. But the 55 plate appearance-sample size was small. Still, it seemed the damage was done. In mid-summer, with Texas chasing the Athletics and Angels, the Rangers sent Cordero to the Milwaukee Brewers for Carlos Lee (and a throw-in bat named Nelson Cruz). The Brewers badly needed a closer and Cordero embraced the change of scenery. He kicked off his Brewers career by converting 16 straight saves and finished 3-1, 1.69 with a 30/16 SO/BB rate. His walks spiked but still looked better than Derrick Turnbow’s. The Brewers (and Rangers) finished well out of the playoff race. But Cordero was now comfortable and set to play a leading role on an improving Brewers team.

And so it went. He pitched 66 games in 2007, going 0-4, 2.98 in 63.1 IP with a franchise-record 44 saves and a fantastic 86/18 SO/BB ratio. He generated a career-best 12.2 SO/9, a sterling 4.78 SO/BB and held hitters to a .218 BAA. He nailed down his first 22 saves in a row including 10 in April. Later, he earned saves on five consecutive days. He made the All-Star team and was a major reason the Brewers finished second in the NL Central. His home/road ERA splits were severe (1.09/6.55) but Cordero set himself up beautifully for his first crack at free agency. And cashed in with a four-year, $46 million deal with the fifth place Cincinnati Reds – the biggest contract ever signed by a relief pitcher at the time.

Over the next four years, Cordero gave the Reds exactly what they paid him for. He pitched 283 games, going 18-18, 2.96 in 279.1 innings with a cumulative 237/126 SO/BB and a whopping 150 saves. He made his third All-Star team in 2009 and helped the Reds win the NL Central in 2010. Alas, the Reds never got a lead and Cordero didn’t get to pitch in the playoffs. The Reds also rewarded his community work, nominating him for the Roberto Clemente Award. Dusty Baker rode him hard over the years, sometimes pitching him four and five days in a row. But Cordero didn’t miss any time. And only required one late-September microfracture procedure to remove a bone spur from his right foot. For the last decade, he’s been one of the most reliable and durable relievers in the game.

His 2011 season is very interesting. Cordero pitched 68 games, saving 37, and went 5-3, 2.45 in 69.2 IP – but with an underwhelming 49/22 SO/BB rate. His 5.43 SO/9 was the lowest of his career. But so was his 6.3 H/9. He also dramatically reduced the walks he allowed (2.84 BB/9, his best rate in 10 years) and produced a strong 1.02 WHIP. He had four bad outings before the All-Star break but managed an excellent 1.80 ERA in the second half. He was absolute murder on righties (.159/.245/.220) and showed he could still be effective against lefties (.243/.302/.435). He recorded an unsustainable .214 BABIP but also delivered the best ground ball (50.0%) and line drive rates (16.2%) of his career. He was tough to get on against. 20 of his 37 saves were 1-2-3 innings. Yet he lost some velocity on his fastball (down to 93 mph) and virtually threw it only 41.2% of the time – down from 66.7% in 2010. Instead, Cordero threw three times as many changeups (18.8% from 6.7%) and introduced a new show-me curveball (9.8%).

Many are attributing this change to declining stuff. Fair enough. He’s 37 in a month. But it’s possible Cordero’s fundamentally changing the way he attacks hitters. In interviews, Cordero insists he now strives to be more economical on the mound by inducing weak contact. The ground ball and line drive rates seem to back this up. The question moving forward is: Has a 37-year old closer reinvented himself as a crafty specialist or did he get lucky at the same time his stuff started to fade? We’ll soon find out.

OUTLOOK

In the new-look Jays bullpen, Cordero’s job is simple. He’ll be asked to enter close games, attack right-handed hitters and be prepared to slide into the ninth when called on. He should also guide Sergio Santos. Cordero still looks capable of doing all these things and there is no situation Santos will encounter this year that Cordero hasn’t seen.

He is now entering the Roberto Hernandez stage of his career. He may have fewer chances to influences games but will be but will be counted on for guidance and stability – especially with fastball-slider guys like Santos and Joel Carreno. He’s been worth 21.4 WAR in his career. Has saved 30 games 7 times and sits second among pitchers in saves and fifth in games pitched.Who could have guessed Cordero and Darren Oliver, teammates on the 2000 Texas Rangers, would still be going strong all these years later?

Expect Cordero to pound RHH, be more susceptible to home runs and rack up a whack of holds and add a few saves. His margin for error is shrinking and he could still break down at any time. But I’m betting there’s another season or two left.

STAT SHEET

Francisco Cordero, RP
05/11/75            Bats: R             Throws: R       HT: 6-3          WT: 245
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
Signed: By Detroit as an amateur free agent June 18, 1994.
Acquired: Signed by Toronto in February 2012.
Contract Status: Free Agent in 2013.
Salary: $4,500,000
Service Time: 12.046